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By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.

Credit derivatives --- Swaps (Finance) --- Swap financing --- Derivative securities --- Finance --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- International Financial Markets --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Externalities --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Credit default swap --- Government debt management --- Spillovers --- Liquidity --- Current account balance --- Money --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Asset and liability management --- Balance of payments --- Credit --- Debts, Public --- International finance --- Economics --- Slovenia, Republic of