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Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty
Authors: ---
ISBN: 3540684360 3540684379 Year: 2008 Publisher: Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg : Imprint: Springer,

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Abstract

Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Uncertainty and Risk : Mental, Formal, Experimental Representations
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1281065889 9786611065881 3540489355 3540489347 3642080294 9783540489344 Year: 2007 Volume: 41 Publisher: Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg : Imprint: Springer,

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We all feel that our world is fundamentally uncertain. But less unanimity emerges as to what we mean by "uncertainty" and how we ought to adjust. Businessmen tend to be "cautious" and engineers to pick up the "right" decision criteria among the many available in the literature, without having much justification about their respective behaviors. This book tries to sort out the different meanings of uncertainty and to discover their foundations. It shows that uncertainty can be represented using various tools and mental guidelines. Some decision criteria are then related to each case and assessed. Alternative ways to deal with risk - and risk attitude concepts - are then examined in the above perspective. Behavior under uncertainty emerges from this book as something to base more on inquiry and reflection than on mere intuition.

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