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Estimating how the macroeconomy works
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ISBN: 0674015460 0674036638 9780674036635 9780674015463 Year: 2004 Publisher: Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press,

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Macroeconomics tries to describe and explain the economywide movement of prices, output, and unemployment. The field has been sharply divided among various schools, including Keynesian, monetarist, new classical, and others. It has also been split between theorists and empiricists. Ray Fair is a resolute empiricist, developing and refining methods for testing theories and models. The field cannot advance without the discipline of testing how well the models approximate the data. Using a multicountry econometric model, he examines several important questions, including what causes inflation, how monetary authorities behave and what are their stabilization limits, how large is the wealth effect on aggregate consumption, whether European monetary policy has been too restrictive, and how large are the stabilization costs to Europe of adopting the euro. He finds, among other things, little evidence for the rational expectations hypothesis and for the so-called non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) hypothesis. He also shows that the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s was not a "new age" economy.


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The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics
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Year: 1992 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations
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Year: 1992 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations
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Year: 1991 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation
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Year: 1991 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?
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Year: 1991 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation
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Year: 1990 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well
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Year: 1990 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
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Year: 1989 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior
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Year: 1989 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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