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Morocco’s track record of sound economic policies helped it withstand the recent economic crisis and regional social events. High oil prices have contributed to a build-up of fiscal and external pressures, but the government has taken action to address these vulnerabilities and are committed to continuing implementation of sound policies. Morocco has sound economic fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks, and performs strongly on three of the five Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) qualification areas. A precautionary arrangement would support the policies by providing a financing buffer against exogenous shocks.

Economic development --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Morocco --- Economic policy. --- E-books --- Commerce --- Business & Economics --- International Commerce --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Oil prices --- Public debt --- Government debt management --- Current account deficits --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Balance of payments --- Debts, Public

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This paper proposes an empirical framework that distinguishes voluntary from involuntary compliance with fiscal deficit targets on the basis of economic, institutional, and political factors. The framework is applied to Spain’s Autonomous Communities (regions) over the period 2002-2015. Fiscal noncompliance among Spain’s regions has shown to be persistent. It increases with the size of growth forecast errors and the extent to which fiscal targets are tightened, factors not fully under the control of regional governments. Non-compliance also tends to increase during election years, when vertical fiscal imbalances accentuate, and market financing costs subside. Strong fiscal rules have not shown any significant impact in containing fiscal non-compliance. Reducing fiscal non-compliance in multilevel governance systems such as the one in Spain requires a comprehensive assessment of intergovernmental fiscal arrangements that looks beyond rules-based frameworks by ensuring enforcement procedures are politically credible.

Economics. --- Economics --- Economic theory --- Political economy --- Social sciences --- Economic man --- E-books --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- State and Local Budget and Expenditures --- Intergovernmental Relations --- Federalism --- Secession --- Fiscal Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Government debt management --- Fiscal rules --- Budget planning and preparation --- Fiscal consolidation --- Fiscal risks --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, Public --- Budget --- Spain

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Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks’ exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework—sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)—to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA).  It also introduces two risk indices—investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)—to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.

Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Debts, Public --- Finance, Public --- Cameralistics --- Public finance --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Currency question --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- E-books --- Public finances --- Banks and Banking --- Investments: General --- Financial Crises --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Investment & securities --- Foreign banks --- Government debt management --- Government securities --- Financial institutions --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Securities --- Banks and banking, Foreign --- Banks and banking --- Financial instruments --- United States

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The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds–under commitment–the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds.

Debts, Public. --- Monetary policy. --- Fiscal policy. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Monetary management --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Government policy --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: Bonds --- Public Finance --- Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Crisis Management --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Expenditure --- Fiscal policy --- Debt management --- Financial institutions --- Asset and liability management --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- United States

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The global financial crisis of recent years and the associated large fiscal deficits and debt levels that have impacted many countries underscores the importance of reliable and timely government statistics and, more broadly, public sector debt as a critical element in countries fiscal and external sustainability. Public Sector Debt Statistics is the first international guide of its kind, and its primary objectives are to improve the quality and timeliness of key debt statistics and promote a convergence of recording practices to foster international comparability and as a reference for national compilers and users for compiling and disseminating these data. Like other statistical guides published by the IMF, this one was prepared in consultation with countries and international agencies, including the nine organizations of the Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics (TFFS). The guide's preparation was based on the broad range of experience of our institutions and benefitted from consultation with national compilers of government finance and public sector debt statistics. The guide's concepts are harmonized with those of the System of National Accounts (2008) and the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition.

Debts, Public --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Statistical methods --- E-books --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Dettes publiques --- Corporate Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- Civil service & public sector --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Finance --- Securities --- Public sector --- Business enterprises --- Government debt management --- Financial institutions --- Economic sectors --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Financial instruments --- Finance, Public --- Debts, External --- United States