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This book offers a concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view whereby probability is a mode of judgment. Written by one of the greatest figures in the field of probability theory, the book is both a summation and synthesis of a lifetime of wrestling with these problems and issues. After an introduction to basic probability theory, there are chapters on scientific hypothesis-testing, on changing your mind in response to generally uncertain observations, on expectations of the values of random variables, on de Finetti's dissolution of the so-called problem of induction, and on decision theory.

Judgment --- Probabilities --- Probability --- Statistical inference --- Combinations --- Mathematics --- Chance --- Least squares --- Mathematical statistics --- Risk --- Judgement --- Knowledge, Theory of --- Language and languages --- Psychology --- Thought and thinking --- Wisdom --- Bayes-Regel. --- Beoordeling. --- Judgment. --- Jugement. --- PHILOSOPHY --- Probabilities. --- Probabilités. --- Waarschijnlijkheidstheorie. --- Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie. --- Epistemology. --- Arts and Humanities --- Philosophy