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During the West African Monsoon, convective systems generate the largest part of annual precipitation. We investigate their predictability by conducting high-resolution ensemble simulations with the COSMO model, focusing on the impact of the land surface. Are land-surface – atmosphere interactions in West Africa as important for precipitation forecasts as larger-scale conditions? What are the main physical processes?

soil moisture --- Bodenfeuchte --- COSMO --- numerische Wettervorhersage --- COSMOnumerical weather prediction --- Sahel --- AMMA

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Based largely on an International Commission on Dynamical Meteorology (ICDM) workshop, this timely volume, written by leading researchers in the field, covers a range of important research issues related to high-impact weather and extreme climate events. Dynamical linkages between these extremes and various atmospheric and ocean phenomena are examined, including Atlantic Multidecadal, North Atlantic, and Madden-Julian Oscillations; Annular Modes; tropical cyclones; and Asian monsoons. This book also examines the predictability of high-impact weather and extreme climate events on multiple time scales. Highlighting recent research and new advances in the field, this book enhances understanding of dynamical and physical processes associated with these events to help managers and policy makers make informed decisions to manage risk and prevent or mitigate disasters. It also provides guidance on future research directions in atmospheric science, meteorology, climate science, and weather forecasting, for experts and young scientists.

Severe storms --- Weather forecasting. --- Forecasting. --- Forecasting, Weather --- Short range weather forecasting --- Weather --- Weather prediction --- Geophysical prediction --- Forecasting

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Marine meteorology --- Weather forecasting --- Forecasting, Weather --- Short range weather forecasting --- Weather --- Weather prediction --- Maritime meteorology --- Meteorology, Maritime --- Forecasting --- Geophysical prediction --- Meteorology --- Oceanography

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How do meteorologists design forecasts for the next day's, the next week's, or the next month's weather? Are some forecasts more likely to be accurate than others, and why? Making Sense of Weather and Climate takes readers through key topics in atmospheric physics and presents a cogent view of how weather relates to climate, particularly climate-change science. It is the perfect book for amateur meteorologists and weather enthusiasts, and for anyone whose livelihood depends on navigating the weather's twists and turns. Making Sense of Weather and Climate begins by explaining the essential mechanics and characteristics of this fascinating science. The noted physics author Mark Denny also defines the crucial differences between weather and climate, and then develops from this basic knowledge a sophisticated yet clear portrait of their relation. Throughout, Denny elaborates on the role of weather forecasting in guiding politics and other aspects of human civilization. He also follows forecasting's effect on the economy. Denny's exploration of the science and history of a phenomenon we have long tried to master makes this book a unique companion for anyone who wants a complete picture of the environment's individual, societal, and planetary impact.

Weather forecasting. --- Climatology. --- Climate --- Climate science --- Climate sciences --- Science of climate --- Atmospheric science --- Forecasting, Weather --- Short range weather forecasting --- Weather --- Weather prediction --- Geophysical prediction --- Forecasting

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The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.

Weather forecasting. --- Forecasting, Weather --- Short range weather forecasting --- Weather --- Weather prediction --- Geophysical prediction --- Forecasting --- Weather forecasting --- Long-range weather forecasting --- Climatic changes