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Using the Home Office Offenders Index, a unique database containing records of all criminal convictions in England and Wales since 1963, this simple but influential theory makes exact quantitative predictions about criminal careers and age-crime curves, in particular the prison population contingent on a given sentencing policy.

Crime and criminals -- Great Britain. --- Criminal justice, Administration of -- Great Britain. --- Criminals -- Great Britain. --- Criminals. --- Criminals --- Crime --- Criminal justice, Administration of --- Social Welfare & Social Work --- Social Sciences --- Criminology, Penology & Juvenile Delinquency --- Criminology. --- Study and teaching --- Social sciences --- reconviction --- recidivism --- offenders index --- oi --- criminal careers --- prison population --- conviction --- age-crime curve --- theory of crime --- Non-commercial activity --- Probability --- Risk