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"As of late 2014, many American and Jordanian experts believe Jordan to be stable. Yet while Jordan is stable, it faces a range of existing and emerging challenges. These include chronic unemployment, sporadic political unrest, budget deficits, a water shortage, and geographically isolated yet troubling internal security concerns. The Syrian refugee crisis both exacerbates these challenges and offers opportunities to the government of Jordan. If the Syrian refugees remain relatively content and continue to assimilate into northern and central Jordan, they might directly benefit the Jordanian economy by stimulating growth. Donors and lenders have increased their support to Jordan, in turn offering the government an opportunity to improve the lives of both Syrian refugees and Jordanian citizens. Most important, Jordan benefits from what one expert terms negative stability: Jordanian citizens might be dissatisfied with many aspects of their government, but the chaos in neighboring states has thus far dissuaded Jordanians from pursuing civil or violent actions that might destabilize Jordan. Jordanians do not want their country to look like Syria, Iraq, or Egypt. Jordan is likely to undergo further and perhaps unforeseen challenges in 2015 and 2016, but it has the opportunity to alleviate many of its enduring challenges. If Jordan wisely invests forthcoming international refugee support, it has the opportunity to shift popular outlook from negative to positive--and more optimistic--stability. This report's analytic forecasts should help the United States determine how to support Jordan as it faces the Syrian refugee crisis"--Publisher's description.

Refugees --- Forced migration --- Humanitarian assistance --- National security --- International relief --- Emigration and immigration law --- Economic history. --- Emigration and immigration law. --- Forced migration. --- Humanitarian assistance. --- International relief. --- National security. --- Refugees. --- Social conditions. --- Civil War (Syria : 2011-) --- 2000 - 2099 --- Syria --- Jordan --- Jordan. --- Syria. --- History --- Economic conditions --- Social conditions --- Displaced persons --- Persons --- National security policy --- NSP (National security policy) --- Security policy, National --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Military policy --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International grants-in-aid --- Relief (Aid) --- Relief, International --- Charities --- Economic assistance --- Public welfare --- Humanitarian aid --- Cleansing, Ethnic --- Compulsory resettlement --- Ethnic cleansing --- Ethnic purification --- Involuntary resettlement --- Migration, Forced --- Purification, Ethnic --- Relocation, Forced --- Resettlement, Involuntary --- Migration, Internal --- Emigration and immigration --- Immigrants --- Immigration law --- Law, Emigration --- Law, Immigration --- International travel regulations --- History, Economic --- Economics --- Government policy --- Law and legislation --- Legal status, laws, etc. --- Arabska Republika Syryjska --- Aravikē Dēmokratia tēs Syrias --- Fédération des États de Syrie --- Ittiḥād al-Duwal al-Sūrīyah --- Jumhuriya al-Arabya as-Suriya --- Jumhūrīyah al-ʻArabīyah al-Sūrīyah --- Jumhūriyyah al-ʻArabiyyah as-Sūriyyah --- R.A.S. --- RAS --- Repubblica Araba Siriana --- Republiḳah ha-ʻArvit ha-Surit --- République arabe syrienne --- SAR --- Shiria --- Siria --- Sirii͡ --- Siriĭskai͡a Arabskai͡a Respublika --- Siriĭskata arabska republika --- Siryi͡ --- Siryĭskai͡a Arabskai͡a Rėspublika --- Sowria --- Suryah --- Syrian Arab Republic --- Syrie --- Syrien --- Syrii͡ --- Syriĭsʹka Arabsʹka respublika --- Syrische Arabische Republik --- United Arab Republic --- Xuliya --- Giordania --- Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan --- Hashimite Kingdom of the Jordan --- Jordania --- Jordanien --- Mamlaka al-Urduniya al-Hashemiyah --- Mamlakah al-Urdunīyah al-Hāshimīyah --- Transjordan --- Urdun --- Urdunn --- Yarden

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Counterinsurgency --- Freedom of movement --- Military & Naval Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Military Science - General --- Movement, Freedom of --- Counterguerrilla warfare --- Civil rights --- Domicile --- Emigration and immigration law --- Industrial laws and legislation --- Labor laws and legislation --- Liberty --- Personality (Law) --- Guerrilla warfare --- Insurgency

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RAND conducted a lessons learned examination of operations analysis, modeling, and simulation in support of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom. This report identifies ways in which analysts have attempted to support commanders' decisions in counterinsurgency and irregular warfare, describes many of the models and tools they employed, provides insight into the challenges they faced, and suggests ways in which the application of modeling, simulation, and analysis might be improved for current and future operations. RAND identified four broad categories of decisions: force protection, logistics, campaign assessment, and force structuring. Modeling, simulation, and analysis were most effective in supporting force protection and logistics decisions, and least effective in supporting campaign assessment and force structuring.

Counterinsurgency --- Irregular warfare --- Soldiers --- Logistics --- Military planning --- Decision making --- Operations research --- Afghan War, 2001 --- -Iraq War, 2003-2011 --- Military Science - General --- Military & Naval Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Simulation methods --- Evaluation --- Protection --- Computer simulation --- Anglo-American Invasion of Iraq, 2003-2011 --- Dawn, Operation New, 2010-2011 --- Gulf War II, 2003-2011 --- Iraqi Freedom, Operation, 2003-2010 --- New Dawn, Operation, 2010-2011 --- Operation Iraqi Freedom, 2003-2010 --- Operation New Dawn, 2010-2011 --- Operation Telic, 2003-2011 --- Persian Gulf War, 2003-2011 --- Telic, Operation, 2003-2011 --- Operational analysis --- Operational research --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management --- Management decisions --- War planning --- Armed Forces personnel --- Members of the Armed Forces --- Military personnel --- Military service members --- Service members --- Servicemen, Military --- IW (Irregular warfare) --- Unconventional warfare --- Counterguerrilla warfare --- War on Terrorism, 2001-2009 --- Operation Enduring Freedom, 2001 --- -War on Terrorism, 2001-2009 --- Industrial engineering --- Management science --- Research --- System theory --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving --- Military administration --- Military policy --- Planning --- Military art and science --- Armed Forces --- War --- Guerrilla warfare --- Insurgency --- -Operation Enduring Freedom, 2001 --- Afghan War, 2001-2021 --- Iraq War, 2003-2011