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We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about ½ of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility appears to have played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings have been a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.

Business cycles --- Business cycles. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Information Management --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Business Cycles --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Knowledge management --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Technology transfer --- Current account --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Adjustment process --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Technology --- Balance of payments --- United States

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Research shows that international trade is an important channel for the transfer of technology. Building on this evidence, this paper examines the effects of inter- and intraindustry trade on technology transfer. The paper develops and tests the hypothesis that intraindustry trade stimulates more technology transfer than interindustry trade because countries are likely to absorb foreign technologies more easily when their imports are from the same sectors as their production and export sectors. The results of empirical tests for 87 countries during 1970–93 support this hypothesis.

Exports and Imports --- Information Management --- Production and Operations Management --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Trade: General --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Knowledge management --- Technology --- general issues --- Total factor productivity --- Imports --- Technology transfer --- Exports --- International trade --- Industrial productivity --- Malta

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Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the “nowcasting” challenge familiar to many central banks. Addressing this problem—and mindful of the pitfalls of extracting information from a large number of correlated proxies—we explore some recent techniques from the machine learning literature. We focus on two popular techniques (Elastic Net regression and Random Forests) and provide an estimation procedure that is intuitively familiar and well suited to the challenging features of Lebanon’s data.

Macroeconomics --- Intelligence (AI) & Semantics --- Forecasting --- Simulation Methods --- Statistical Decision Theory --- Operations Research --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Computational Techniques --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Machine learning --- Economic growth --- Economic Forecasting --- Cyclical indicators --- Technology --- Economic forecasting --- Business cycles --- Lebanon

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Two of the most salient trends surrounding the issue of migration and development over the past two decades are the large rise in remittances, and an increased flow of skilled migration. However, recent literature based on cross-country regressions has claimed that more educated migrants remit less, leading to concerns that further increases in skilled migration will hamper remittance growth. This paper revisits the relationship between education and remitting behavior using microdata from surveys of immigrants in 11 major destination countries. The data show a mixed pattern between education and the likelihood of remitting, and a strong positive relationship between education and the amount remitted conditional on remitting. Combining these intensive and extensive margins gives an overall positive effect of education on the amount remitted. The microdata then allow investigation as to why the more educated remit more. The analysis finds that the higher income earned by migrants, rather than characteristics of their family situations, explains much of the higher remittances.

Brain Drain --- Consequences of migration --- Developing countries --- Educated Migrants --- Family members --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Illegal migrants --- Immigrant --- Immigrants --- Immigration --- Immigration policies --- Impact of education --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migration --- Policy Research --- Population Policies --- Progress --- Remittance --- Remittances --- Skill level --- Skilled migrants --- Social Development --- Tertiary education

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The decision of whether or not to migrate has far-reaching consequences for the lives of individuals and their families. But the very nature of this choice makes identifying the impacts of migration difficult, since it is hard to measure a credible counterfactual of what the person and their household would have been doing had migration not occurred. Migration experiments provide a clear and credible way for identifying this counterfactual, and thereby allowing causal estimation of the impacts of migration. The authors provide an overview and critical review of the three strands of this approach: policy experiments, natural experiments, and researcher-led field experiments. The purpose is to introduce readers to the need for this approach, give examples of where it has been applied in practice, and draw out lessons for future work in this area.

Access to Finance --- Anthropology --- Consequences of migration --- Culture and Development --- Debt Markets --- Family members --- Family ties --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Immigration --- Impact of migration --- Job opportunities --- Labor supply --- Language proficiency --- Lives of individuals --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Mental health --- Migrant --- Migrants --- Migration --- Policy research --- Policy research working paper --- Population Policies --- Progress --- Remittance --- Remittances --- Return migration --- Sex