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Book
Who Escaped Poverty and Who Was Left Behind? A Non-Parametric Approach to Explore Welfare Dynamics Using Cross-Sections
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper proposes a non-parametric adaptation of a recently developed parametric technique to produce point estimates of intra-generational economic mobility in the absence of panel data sets that follow individuals over time. The method predicts past individual income or consumption using time-invariant observable characteristics, which allows the estimation of mobility into and out of poverty, as well as household-level income or consumption growth, from cross-sectional data. The paper validates this method by sampling repeated cross-sections out of actual panel data sets from three countries in the Latin America region and comparing the technique with mobility from panels. Overall, the method performs well in the three settings; with few exceptions, all estimates fall within the 95 percent confidence intervals of the panel mobility. The quality of the estimates does not depend in general on the sophistication level of the underlying welfare model's specifications. The results are encouraging even for those specifications that include few time-invariant variables as regressors.


Book
When Do Gender Wage Differences Emerge? : A Study of Azerbaijan's Labor Market
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Building on recent analyses that find a sizeable overall gender wage gap in Azerbaijan's workforce, this paper uses data on young workers in their early years in the labor market to understand how gender wage gaps evolve over time, if at all. The paper uses a unique database from a survey of young people ages 15-29 years. The analysis provides evidence that new labor market entrants begin with little or no gender differences in earnings, but a wage gap gradually emerges over time closer to the childbearing years. The gender wage gap grows from virtually zero, or even a small, positive gap in favor of women, until age 20 years, to about 20 percent two years later and even more than 30 percent at age 29 years. The gap in labor supply rises from almost zero to about 20 percent during the years from 19 to 22, while the gap in hours worked falls from positive (up to six hours per week more than their male counterparts) to negative (up to five hours per week less) over the same period in the life cycle. When decomposing the gap at different deciles of the wage distribution, it appears that most of it is at the lower and upper ends of the distribution, among young adults and prime-age workers. Selection of women into employment is strong and strongly skill-based: when controlling for sample selection bias, the gender gap becomes positive.


Book
Fiscal Constraintson Market-Oriented Reform in a Socialist Economy
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462331823 1455208124 1281990132 9786613794567 1455236268 Year: 1991 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper develops a simple two-sector model of a socialist economy, in which government revenues required for servicing external debt are obtained from taxation of the socialized sector and from import taxes. Wages and employment in the socialized sector are the outcome of Nash bargaining between the government and an import-competing labor-dominated state enterprise with domestic market power. The effects of trade liberalization, demonopolization, technical improvements, and limitations on labor’s bargaining power are examined, and the implications for privatization are considered. It is shown that some combination of tax reform and debt reduction may be a precondition for market-oriented reforms.


Book
Labor Market Transitions and Social Security in Colombia
Authors: ---
Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This paper quantifies the magnitude of transitions across occupational categories in Colombia, a country with high unemployment and informality but quickly increasing its social security coverage for health. The analysis makes use of a panel of households between 2008 and 2009, representative of the main metropolitan areas in the country. Results confirm previous evidence found in Colombia and elsewhere in the region that transitions between occupations are large and asymmetric: they are disproportionally more likely to happen from formal to informal occupations than vice versa. The paper finds for the first time that such transitions are also different for salaried workers compared with the self-employed, as well as by poverty status of the worker. Salaried workers are more likely to transition first into other salaried jobs, while self-employed are more likely to transition into unemployment or out of the labor force. There are marked differences in the profiles of transitioning and non-transitioning workers, both in terms of socioeconomic characteristics and social security coverage. Causal analysis shows that affiliation to social security on health deters occupational transitions, while pension insurance does not. Hence, high-volume transitions may not be crisis-specific phenomena, but rather associated with contributive and non-contributive social security mechanisms that incentivize informality, and workers' preferences for informal jobs. The debate on labor market and social security reforms needs to take these features of transitions into account.


Book
What Can We (Machine) Learn about Welfare Dynamics from Cross-Sectional Data?
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Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper implements a machine learning approach to estimate intra-generational economic mobility using cross-sectional data. A Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) procedure is applied to explore poverty dynamics and household-level welfare growth in the absence of panel data sets that follow individuals over time. The method is validated by sampling repeated cross-sections of actual panel data from Peru. In general, the approach performs well at estimating intra-generational poverty transitions; most of the mobility estimates fall within the 95 percent confidence intervals of poverty mobility from the actual panel data. The validation also confirms that the Lasso regularization procedure performs well at estimating household-level welfare growth between two years. Overall, the results are sufficiently encouraging to estimate economic mobility in settings where panel data are not available or, if they are, to improve panel data when they suffer from serious non-random attrition problems.


Book
Unpacking the MPI : A Decomposition Approach of Changes in Multidimensional Poverty Headcounts.
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Multidimensional measures of poverty have become standard as complementary indicators of poverty in many countries. Multidimensional poverty calculations typically comprise three indices: the multidimensional headcount, the average deprivation share among the poor, and the adjusted headcount ratio. While several decomposition methodologies are available for the last index, less attention has been paid to decomposing the multidimensional headcount, despite the attention it receives from policy makers. This paper proposes an application of existing methodologies that decompose welfare aggregates-based on counterfactual simulations-to break up the changes of the multidimensional poverty headcount into the variation attributed to each of its dimensions. This paper examines the potential issues of using counterfactual simulations in this framework, proposes approaches to assess these issues in real applications, and suggests a methodology based on rank preservation within strata, which performs positively in simulations. The methodology is applied in the context of the recent reduction of multidimensional poverty in Colombia, finding that the dimensions associated with education and health are the main drivers behind the poverty decline.


Book
The "Resource Curse" in MENA : Political Transitions, Resource Wealth, Economic Shocks, and Conflict Risk
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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The recent political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa region have exposed growing concerns about conflict risk, political stability, and reform prospects across its societies. Given the prevalence of oil and gas resource endowments in the region, which a voluminous literature suggests can be associated with adverse development consequences, this paper examines the interplay between their associated rents and political economy trajectories. The contribution of the paper is threefold: first, to examine the quantitative evidence of violent conflict in the region since 1960; second, to provide a nuanced review of the regional case study literature on the relationship between resource endowments, political stability, and conflict risk; and third, to assess how prospective political transitions have implications for the World Bank Group's work in the region on public sector management and private sector development. The authors find that resources and regimes have intersected to provide stability and limited violent conflict in the region, but that these development patterns have yielded a set of policy choices and development patterns that are proving increasingly brittle and unsustainable. A major institutional challenge for reforms will be to consolidate a requisite degree of intertemporal credibility and stability in these regimes, while expanding inclusiveness in state-society relations.


Book
The IMF and Russia in the 1990's
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ISBN: 1462324657 1452741123 1282050826 9786613798275 1451902506 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper explains the IMF's impact on economic policies in Russia, focusing on where the IMF made a difference. The Russian economic and political leadership essentially determined economic policies. The IMF's influence was modest: it had only a limited impact on overall fiscal policy and the major structural reforms, but it had a positive impact on monetary policy. A tougher position on fiscal policy in 1996-98 might have produced a better outcome. The G-7's concerns weakened the IMF. However, the IMF played a major role in transferring knowledge about macroeconomic policymaking and implementation.


Book
Market Liberalization Policies in a Reforming Socialist Economy
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462398340 145529392X Year: 1991 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

Revitalizing the city
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1317460790 9781317460794 1317460782 1317460774 9780765612427 9781315701080 9781317460770 9780765612434 0765612437 1315701081 Year: 2016 Publisher: Abingdon, Oxon New York

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