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Unanticipated changes in commodity prices can generate significant movements in fiscal aggregates. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of these fiscal movements in the context of transitory commodity price shocks using sample data from four CIS countries- two oil-producing and two non-oil commodity-intensive countries. It adopts a structural VAR approach and identifies the dynamic effects of commodity price shocks on fiscal performance under two broad tax regimes. Stochastic simulations indicate high probabilities of fiscal overperformance in the short term when commodity prices are high. These probabilities deteriorate significantly, however, in the long term after the transitory positive commodity price shock has dissipated, particularly when lax fiscal policy is adopted during the period of the price boom.
Autoregression (Statistics). --- Commodity exchanges -- Former Soviet republics -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Fiscal policy -- Former Soviet republics -- Econometric models. --- Prices -- Former Soviet republics -- Econometric models. --- Taxation -- Former Soviet republics -- Econometric models. --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Econometric Modeling: General --- Fiscal Policy --- General Outlook and Conditions --- Commodity Markets --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Commodity price shocks --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Commodity prices --- Commodity price indexes --- Expenditure --- Prices --- Price indexes --- Expenditures, Public --- Kyrgyz Republic --- Commodity exchanges --- Fiscal policy --- Taxation --- Autoregression (Statistics) --- Econometric models.
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This paper provides an overview of the recent revenue performance in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union, and a survey of these countries efforts to modify tax policy in line with the needs of increasingly market-oriented economies and to increase the effectiveness of tax administration. It focuses principally on the 12 countries of the CIS, but refers also to the Baltic countries, and addresses the period from 1995 to mid-1998, prior to the August 1998 financial crisis in Russia.
Taxes --- Tax law --- Eastern and Central Europe --- Taxation --- -fiscaliteit --- belastingen --- Rusland --- 336.2 <474> --- 336.2 <47> --- politique fiscale --- mesures fiscales --- russie --- urss --- CIS / Commonwealth Of Independant States - Gos - Cei --- EE / Estonia - Estland - Estonie --- LT / Lithuania - Litouwen - Lituanie --- LV / Latvia - Letland - Lettonie --- 336.201 --- 330.05 --- 336.200947 --- Duties --- Fee system (Taxation) --- Tax policy --- Tax reform --- Taxation, Incidence of --- Finance, Public --- Revenue --- Belastingsakkoorden. Belastingswezen--Baltische Republieken --- Belastingsakkoorden. Belastingswezen--Rusland. Sovjet-Unie --- fiscaal beleid --- belastingmaatregelen --- rusland --- ussr --- Fiscaal regime: structuur en evolutie. Fiscale hervorming. --- Working papers --- 336.2 <47> Belastingen. Belastingswezen. Openbare financien. Belastingspolitiek. Belastingstheorie. Belastingsharmonisatie. Fiskale politiek. Belastingsleer. Belastingsdruk. Belastingstechniek. Belastingsstelsel.Belastingstarief--Rusland. Sovjet-Unie --- 336.2 <47> Belastingsakkoorden. Belastingswezen--Rusland. Sovjet-Unie --- Belastingen. Belastingswezen. Openbare financien. Belastingspolitiek. Belastingstheorie. Belastingsharmonisatie. Fiskale politiek. Belastingsleer. Belastingsdruk. Belastingstechniek. Belastingsstelsel.Belastingstarief--Rusland. Sovjet-Unie --- 336.2 <474> Belastingen. Belastingswezen. Openbare financien. Belastingspolitiek. Belastingstheorie. Belastingsharmonisatie. Fiskale politiek. Belastingsleer. Belastingsdruk. Belastingstechniek. Belastingsstelsel.Belastingstarief--Baltische Republieken --- 336.2 <474> Belastingsakkoorden. Belastingswezen--Baltische Republieken --- Belastingen. Belastingswezen. Openbare financien. Belastingspolitiek. Belastingstheorie. Belastingsharmonisatie. Fiskale politiek. Belastingsleer. Belastingsdruk. Belastingstechniek. Belastingsstelsel.Belastingstarief--Baltische Republieken --- fiscaliteit --- Fiscaal regime: structuur en evolutie. Fiscale hervorming --- Taxation - Former Soviet republics --- Macroeconomics --- Personal Finance -Taxation --- Public Finance --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Tax Law --- Auditing --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Public finance & taxation --- Taxation & duties law --- Management accounting & bookkeeping --- Civil service & public sector --- Tax administration core functions --- Tax collection --- Payroll tax --- Revenue administration --- Tax administration and procedure --- Law and legislation --- Fiscal policy --- Russian Federation
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