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Trade policies can promote aggregate efficiency, but the ensuing structural adjustments generally create both winners and losers. From an incomes perspective, trade liberalization can raise gross domestic product per capita, but rates of emergence from poverty depend on individual household characteristics of economic participation and asset holding. To fully realize the growth potential of trade, while limiting the risk of rising inequality, policies need to better account for microeconomic heterogeneity. One approach to this is geographic targeting that shifts resources to poor areas. This study combines an integrated microsimulation-computable general equilibrium model with small area estimation to evaluate the spatial incidence of Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization. Provincial-level poverty reduction after full liberalization was heterogeneous, ranging from 2.2 percent to 14.3 percent. Full liberalization will benefit the poor on a national basis, but the northwestern area of Vietnam is likely to lag behind. Furthermore, poverty can be shown to increase under comparable scenarios.

Economic Theory and Research --- Incidence of Poverty --- Income --- Income distribution --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor areas --- Poor households --- Poor people --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Targeting

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As the financial crisis has spread through the world, the lack of real-time data has made it difficult to track its impact in developing countries. This paper uses a micro-simulation approach to assess the poverty and distributional effects of the crisis in the Philippines. The authors find increases in both the level and the depth of aggregate poverty. Income shocks are relatively large in the middle part of the income distribution. They also find that characteristics of people who become poor because of the crisis are different from those of both chronically poor people and the general population. The findings can be useful for policy makers wishing to identify leading monitoring indicators to track the impact of macroeconomic shocks and to design policies that protect vulnerable groups.

Achieving Shared Growth --- Chronically poor --- Distributional effects --- Economic growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Food price --- Impact on poverty --- Incidence of poverty --- Income --- Income distribution --- Income inequality --- Income poverty --- Inequality --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomic shocks --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor people --- Poverty rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural --- Rural poverty --- Rural poverty rate --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment

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Microfinance is often criticized for not adequately addressing seasonality and hard-core poverty. In Bangladesh, a program known as PRIME was introduced in 2006 to address both concerns. Unlike regular microfinance, PRIME introduces a microfinance scheme that offers a flexible repayment schedule and consumption smoothing, as well as production, loans. It targets the ultra-poor, many of whom are also seasonally poor, with a severe inability to smooth consumption during certain months of the year. Besides providing loans, PRIME offers extension and training services. This paper uses a quasi-experimental survey design to evaluate PRIME against regular microfinance programs. The results show that PRIME is more effective than regular microfinance in reaching the ultra-poor, as well as the seasonal poor. PRIME also helps reduce seasonal deprivation and extreme poverty. Although the program has demonstrated its promise, it is too early to conclude whether the accrued benefits are large enough to contain both seasonal and chronic poverty on a sustained basis.

Chronic poverty --- Consumption smoothing --- Debt Markets --- Extreme poverty --- Farmers --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Food & Beverage Industry --- Household income --- Household survey --- Household welfare --- Human capital --- Incidence of poverty --- Income --- Industry --- Insurance --- Landholdings --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microcredit programs --- Poor --- Poverty Reduction --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural --- Rural areas --- Rural development --- Rural poverty --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Targeting

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August 1995 - In urban areas of Cote d'Ivoire, human capital is the endowment that best explains welfare changes over time. In rural areas, physical capital - especially the amount of land and farm equipment owned - matters most. Empirical investigations of poverty in developing countries tend to focus on the incidence of poverty at a particular point in time. If the incidence of poverty increases, however, there is no information about how many new poor have joined the existing poor and how many people have escaped poverty. Yet this distinction is of crucial policy importance. The chronically poor may need programs to enhance their human and physical capital endowments. Invalids and the very old may need permanent (targeted) transfers. The temporarily poor, on the other hand, may best be helped with programs that complement their own resources and help them bridge a difficult period. Results from analyses of panel surveys show significant mobility into and out of poverty and reveal a dynamism of the poor that policy should stimulate. Understanding what separates chronic from temporary poverty requires knowing which characteristics differentiate those who escape poverty from those who don't. In earlier work, Grootaert, Kanbur, and Oh found that region of residence and socioeconomic status were important factors. In this paper they investigate the role of other household characteristics, especially such asset endowments as human and physical capital, in the case of Cote d'Ivoire. In urban areas of Cote d'Ivoire, human capital is the most important endowment explaining welfare changes over time. Households with well-educated members suffered less loss of welfare than other households. What seems to have mattered, though, is the skills learned through education, not the diplomas obtained. Diplomas may even have worked against some households in having oriented workers too much toward a formal labor market in a time when employment growth came almost entirely from small enterprises. In rural areas, physical capital - especially the amount of land and farm equipment owned - mattered most. Smallholders were more likely to suffer welfare declines. Households with diversified sources of income managed better, especially if they had an important source of nonfarm income. In both rural and urban areas, larger households suffered greater declines in welfare and households that got larger were unable to increase income enough to maintain their former welfare level. Households whose heads worked in the public sector maintained welfare better than other households, a finding that confirms earlier observations. The results also suggest that government policies toward certain regions or types of household can outweigh the effects of household endownments. Surprisingly, migrant non-Ivorian households tended to be better at preventing welfare losses than Ivorian households, while households headed by women did better than those headed by men (after controlling for differences in or changes in endowment). The implications for policymakers? First, education is associated with higher welfare levels and helps people cope better with economic decline. Second, targeting the social safety net to larger households - possibly through the schools, to reach children - is justified in periods of decline. Third, smallholders might be targeted in rural areas, and ways found to encourage diversification of income there. This paper - a joint product of the Social Policy and Resettlement Division, Environment Department, and the Africa Regional Office, Office of the Chief Economist - is the result of a research project on The Dynamics of Poverty: Why Some People Escape Poverty and Others Don't, A Panel Analysis for Cote d'Ivoire (RPO 678-70).

Chronically Poor --- Communities & Human Settlements --- Debt Markets --- Economic Policies --- Economic Theory and Research --- Farm Size --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Household Income --- Household Size --- Household Welfare --- Housing and Human Habitats --- Human Capital --- Incidence Of Poverty --- Income --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- New Poor --- Nonfarm Income --- Old Age --- Poor People --- Poverty --- Poverty Diagnostics --- Poverty Incidence --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural --- Rural Areas --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Targeting --- Temporarily Poor --- Transfers

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This paper uses the night lights (satellite imagery from outer space) approach to estimate growth in and levels of subnational 2013 gross domestic product for 47 counties in Kenya and 30 districts in Rwanda. Estimating subnational gross domestic product is consequential for three reasons. First, there is strong policy interest in how growth can occur in different parts of countries, so that communities can share in national prosperity and not get left behind. Second, subnational entities want to understand how they stack up against their neighbors and competitors, and how much they contribute to national gross domestic product. Third, such information could help private investors to assess where to undertake investments. Using night lights has the advantage of seeing a new and more accurate estimation of informal activity, and being independent of official data. However, the approach may underestimate economic activity in sectors that are largely unlit notably agriculture. For Kenya, the results of the analysis affirm that Nairobi County is the largest contributor to national gross domestic product. However, at 13 percent, this contribution is lower than commonly thought. For Rwanda, the three districts of Kigali account for 40 percent of national gross domestic product, underscoring the lower scale of economic activity in the rest of the country. To get a composite picture of subnational economic activity, especially in the context of rapidly improving official statistics in Kenya and Rwanda, it is important to estimate subnational gross domestic product using standard approaches (production, expenditure, income).

Agricultural output --- Agricultural performance --- Agricultural sector --- Agriculture --- Annual growth --- Annual growth rate --- Cities --- City --- Coefficients --- Consumption --- Criteria --- Development indicators --- Development policy --- Diseconomies of scale --- Distribution of income --- District --- District administrations --- District level --- District-level --- Economic activity --- Economic decline --- Economic downturns --- Economic growth --- Economic theory & research --- Economics --- Elasticity --- Empirical model --- Estimation method --- Financial crisis --- Fiscal management --- Fixed effects --- GDP --- GDP per capita --- Gross domestic product --- Growth --- Growth rate --- Growth rates --- Household surveys --- Incentives --- Incidence of poverty --- Indicators --- Informal economy --- Inputs --- Long-term growth --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- National poverty line --- Policy research --- Poverty --- Poverty impact evaluation --- Poverty levels --- Poverty line --- Poverty reduction --- Pro-poor growth --- Provinces --- Real GDP --- Resource allocation --- Revenue --- Revenue allocation --- Revenue sharing --- Revenue sharing formula --- Revenue-raising capacity --- Subnational entities --- Subnational governments --- Subnational unit --- Surveys --- Tax --- Underestimates --- Urban areas --- Wealth