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Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures show that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.

Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: Stocks --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Estimation --- Trade: General --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Technology --- general issues --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- International economics --- Information technology industries --- Investment & securities --- Estimation techniques --- Imports --- Emerging technologies --- Stocks --- Econometric analysis --- International trade --- Financial institutions --- Econometric models --- United States --- General issues

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We exploit a survey data set that contains information on how 11,000 workers across advanced and emerging market economies perceive the main forces shaping the future of work. In general, workers feel more positive than negative about automation, especially in emerging markets. We find that negative perceptions about automation are prevalent among workers who are older, poorer, more exposed to job volatility, and from countries with higher levels of robot penetration. Perceptions over automation are positively viewed by workers with higher levels of job satisfaction, higher educational attainment, and from countries with stronger labor protection. Workers with positive perceptions of automation also tend to respond that re-education and retraining will be needed to adapt to rapidly evolving skill demands. These workers expect governments to have a role in shaping the future of work through protection of labor and new forms of social benefits. The demand for protection and benefits is more significant among women and workers that have suffered job volatility.

United States --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Automation --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility --- Promotion --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: Public Policy --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Education: Government Policy --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Labor Economics: General --- Education: General --- Automatic control engineering --- Labour --- income economics --- Education --- Information technology industries --- Emerging technologies --- Labor markets --- Technology --- Labor economics --- Labor market --- Income economics

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This paper studies the effect of individual uncertainty on collective decision-making to implement innovation. We show how individual uncertainty creates a bias for the status quo even under irreversible voting decisions, in contrast with Fernandez and Rodrik (1991). Blocking innovation is rooted in the aversion to the potential loss of political clout in future voting decisions. Thus, risk neutral individuals exhibit what we call political risk aversion. Yet individual uncertainty is not all bad news as it may open the door to institutional reform. We endogenize institutional reform and show a non-monotonic relationship between institutional efficiency and the size of innovation.

Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Uncertainty. --- Rational expectations (Economic theory) --- Expectations, Rational (Economic theory) --- Economic forecasting --- Time and economic reactions --- Uncertainty --- Reasoning --- Labor --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Production and Operations Management --- Inventions --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Geographic Labor Mobility --- Immigrant Workers --- Information technology industries --- Technology --- general issues --- Macroeconomics --- Inventions & inventors --- Labour --- income economics --- Emerging technologies --- Productivity --- Technological innovation --- Labor mobility --- Industrial productivity --- Technological innovations --- China, People's Republic of --- General issues --- Income economics

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A new wave of technological innovations, often called “fintech,” is accelerating change in the financial sector. What impact might fintech have on financial services, and how should regulation respond? This paper sets out an economic framework for thinking through the channels by which fintech might provide solutions that respond to consumer needs for trust, security, privacy, and better services, change the competitive landscape, and affect regulation. It combines a broad discussion of trends across financial services with a focus on cross-border payments and especially the impact of distributed ledger technology. Overall, the paper finds that boundaries among different types of service providers are blurring; barriers to entry are changing; and improvements in cross-border payments are likely. It argues that regulatory authorities need to balance carefully efficiency and stability trade-offs in the face of rapid changes, and ensure that trust is maintained in an evolving financial system. It also highlights the importance of international cooperation.

Blockchain and DLT --- Blockchains --- Computer applications in industry & technology --- Databases --- Diffusion Processes --- Distributed ledgers --- Emerging technologies --- Financial Economics: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Instruments --- Financial services industry --- Fintech --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- General issues --- Government and the Monetary System --- Industries: Financial Services --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Information technology industries --- Innovation --- Institutional Investors --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Monetary Systems --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Payment Systems --- Pension Funds --- Regimes --- Research and Development --- Standards --- Technological Change --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Technological innovations --- Technology --- Virtual currencies --- United States

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COVID-19 hit on the back of weakening productivity growth in many advanced and emerging Asian countries, a trend that could be exacerbated by the pandemic. Interestingly, productivity growth in the region was slowing even amid increased innovation effort, as proxied by spending on research and development (R&D) and number of patents. A key element underpinning this disconnect is the growing dispersion in productivity growth, innovation effort, and digitalization across and within sectors. Asia has risen to become an innovation powerhouse, contributing to more than half of world patents. The rise of Asia as an innovation hub has been driven by a few frontier countries that have experienced a sharp increase in digital and computer-related patents, supported by solid R&D spending and a large share of researchers in the labor force. Within countries, R&D has become more concentrated in a smaller share of firms in frontier Asia. Empirical evidence using firm-level data highlight that the high concentration in R&D is associated with large dispersion in productivity. External exposure to competition and innovation, including through trade, supports innovation and help close productivity gaps for firms closer to the frontier. Non-frontier Asian developing countries have benefited from technology diffusion through a higher share of imported high-technology goods and by granting more patents to non-residents, supported by improvements in human capital and digital infrastructure. For these countries, further integration to the international economy, including global value chains, greater entrepreneurship, and expanding innovative labour supply could support productivity by encouraging innovation, including process innovation which is associated with larger productivity at the firm-level. Policies to foster innovation, reduce productivity gaps, and ultimately boost aggregate productivity can be grouped into two buckets. For countries close to the technological frontier, R&D tax credits and grants, business-university R&D collaboration, and lower trade barriers would support broader-based innovation and help close productivity gaps. For countries farther from the frontier, further improvements in digital infrastructure, skilled labor force, openness to trade and FDI, and patent protection, could promote resource reallocation to the most productive firms and enhance incentives for technological adoption, supporting diffusion and higher productivity.

Technological innovations --- Industrial productivity. --- Economic aspects. --- Capacity --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Communicable diseases --- Cost --- Diffusion Processes --- Digitalization --- Diseases: Contagious --- Economics --- Emerging technologies --- General issues --- Health Behavior --- Industrial productivity --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Information technology industries --- Information technology --- Innovation --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International institutions --- International organization --- International Organizations --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Political Economy --- Political economy --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Productivity --- Public Policy --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Technology --- Total factor productivity --- China, People's Republic of