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The author is concerned with whether or not surveys of consumer anticipations can improve predictions of purchase behavior relative to predictions that use only objective variables obtainable at the same date. The basic objective of the study is improved predictions of changes over time.Originally published in 1964.The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Consumption (Economics) --- Consumers --- Business forecasting. --- Durable goods, Consumer. --- Consumer durable goods --- Durables --- Consumer goods --- Nondurable goods --- Business --- Business forecasts --- Forecasting, Business --- Economic forecasting --- Consumer demand --- Consumer spending --- Consumerism --- Spending, Consumer --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Forecasting --- Business forecasting --- Durable goods, Consumer --- E-books
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The paper uses repeated cross-sections of Bulgaria's household survey data (1995, 1997, 2001, and 2003) and a comparable list of durable goods to investigate the dynamics and distribution of durable goods over time, including during the economic crisis of 1996-1997 and the subsequent period of relatively robust economic growth leading up to European Union membership. It examines the dynamics of the ownership of durable goods by wealth classes, geographic locations, and various ethnic groups, including the Roma. In the aggregate, there was convergence between the poorest and the richest classes in the ownership of durable goods between 1995 and 2003, with the poorest class making a significant gain between 2001 and 2003 after having lost some ground between 1995 and 2001. There was also convergence in the ownership of durable goods between urban and rural residents. However, there appear to be some diverging tendencies between Bulgarians and the minority ethnic groups, particularly in the ownership of relatively more expensive goods such as personal computers and cars.
Assets --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Durable Goods --- Economic growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Growth rate --- Income measures --- Macroeconomic policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- National economy --- Per capita income --- Real GDP --- Wealth
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Analyse économique --- Econometrics --- Econometrie --- Econométrie --- Statistique économique --- Consumption (Economics) --- Durable goods, Consumer --- Households --- Econometric models. --- AA / International- internationaal --- 305.4 --- 305.5 --- 339.325.1 --- 339.325.0 --- 339.112.0 --- Econometrie van de inkomensvorming, de spaarvorming, de kapitaalvorming. Input-output tabellen. --- Econometrie van de variaties van de vraag. Verbruiksfunctie. Econometrie van het gedrag van de verbruiker. --- Evolutie van de consumptie. Budget van de huishoudens. --- Levensstandaard en verbruikspeil (algemeenheden). --- Particulier vermogen: algemeenheden. --- Econometric models --- Population --- Families --- Home economics --- Consumer durable goods --- Durables --- Consumer goods --- Nondurable goods --- Econometrie van de inkomensvorming, de spaarvorming, de kapitaalvorming. Input-output tabellen --- Econometrie van de variaties van de vraag. Verbruiksfunctie. Econometrie van het gedrag van de verbruiker --- Particulier vermogen: algemeenheden --- Levensstandaard en verbruikspeil (algemeenheden) --- Evolutie van de consumptie. Budget van de huishoudens --- Consumption (Economics) - Econometric models --- Durable goods, Consumer - Econometric models --- Households - Econometric models
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This paper compares how results using various methods to construct asset indices match results using per capita expenditures. The analysis shows that inferences about inequalities in education, health care use, fertility, child mortality, as well as labor market outcomes are quite robust to the specific economic status measure used. The measures-most significantly per capita expenditures versus the class of asset indices-do not, however, yield identical household rankings. Two factors stand out in predicting the degree of congruence in rankings between per capita expenditures and an asset index. First is the extent to which per capita expenditures can be explained by observed household and community characteristics. In settings with small transitory shocks to expenditure, or with little measurement error in expenditure, the rankings yielded by the alternative approaches are most similar. Second is the extent to which expenditures are dominated by individually consumed goods such as food. Asset indices are typically derived from indicators of goods which are effectively public at the household level, while expenditures are often dominated by food, an almost exclusively private good. In settings where private goods such as food are the main component of expenditures, asset indices and per capita consumption yield the least similar results, although adjusting for economies of scale in household expenditures reconciles the results somewhat.
Affiliated organizations --- Assets --- Debt Markets --- Durable goods --- Economic Theory and Research --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Health Systems Development and Reform --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Human Development --- Income --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Labor market --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Population Policies --- Public Disclosure --- Statements --- Yield
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This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in a global economic model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paper explores the implications of the large increase in fiscal deficits and the implications of a global trade war in response to the financial crisis.
Banks and Banking Reform --- Bonds --- Debt Markets --- Durable goods --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equilibrium --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Fiscal policy --- GDP --- Income --- International Trade --- Liquidity --- Macroeconomic Analysis --- Monetary policy --- Net exports --- Private Sector Development --- Protectionism --- Real exchange rates --- Recession --- Risk premium --- Social Protections and Labor --- Trade policy --- Unemployment --- Wealth
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In this paper the authors apply global value chain (GVC) analysis to recent trends in the global automotive industry, with special attention paid to government interventions triggered by the recent economic crisis. The authors first highlight some of the defining characteristics of GVCs in this important industry, especially the unusually strong regional structure of production and sales. National political institutions create pressure for local content, which drives production close to end markets, where it tends to be organized nationally or regionally. They then examine policy reactions to the recent economic crisis, and provide some discussion of the government interventions in the industry. The authors end with a number of policy conclusions that highlight the likely impact of the interventions on the evolution GVCs and the growth of the industry in developing countries.
Aggregate demand --- Commodity prices --- Debt Markets --- Domestic market --- Durable goods --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging market --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Industry --- International trade --- Inventories --- Labor market --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market share --- Markets and Market Access --- Purchasing --- Sale --- Sales --- Social Protections and Labor --- Substitute --- Supplier --- Suppliers --- Supply chain --- Surplus --- Target markets --- Total sales --- Water and Industry --- Water Resources --- World markets
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Seasonal migration programs are widely used around the world, and are increasingly seen as offering a potential "triple-win"- benefiting the migrant, sending country, and receiving country. Yet there is a dearth of rigorous evidence as to their development impact, and concerns about whether the time periods involved are too short to realize much in the way of benefits, and whether poorer, less skilled households actually get to participate in such programs. This paper studies the development impacts of a recently introduced seasonal worker program that has been deemed to be "best practice." New Zealand's Recognized Seasonal Employer program was launched in 2007 with an explicit focus on development in the Pacific alongside the aim of benefiting employers at home. A multi-year prospective evaluation allows measurement of the impact of participation in this program on households and communities in Tonga and Vanuatu. Using a matched difference-in-differences analysis based on detailed surveys fielded before, during, and after participation, the authors find that the Recognized Seasonal Employer program has indeed had largely positive development impacts. It has increased income and consumption of households, allowed households to purchase more durable goods, increased the subjective standard of living, and had additional benefits at the community level. It also increased child schooling in Tonga. This should rank it among the most effective development policies evaluated to date. The policy was designed as a best practice example based on lessons elsewhere, and now should serve as a model for other countries to follow.
Agricultural Production --- Alcohol --- Anthropology --- Asset purchase --- Capita consumption --- Capita expenditure --- Communities --- Communities and Human Settlements --- Culture and Development --- Development policies --- Durable goods --- Dwelling --- Economic Theory & Research --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Housing & Human Habitats --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migrant --- Population Policies --- Poverty Reduction --- Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping
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Economic analyses of development projects and policies often involve assigning an economic value to changes in the risk of loss of human life. A typical term used in the economic analyses is the value of statistical life, which reflects the aggregation of individuals' willingness to pay for fatal risk reduction and therefore the economic value to society to reduce the statistical incidence of premature death in the population by one. Studies on the value of a statistical life have been extensively conducted in the developed world; however, few such studies can be found for developing countries. This paper presents a study that estimates individuals' willingness to pay for cancer risk prevention in three provinces of China. The results imply that the mean value of willingness to pay for a cancer vaccine that is effective for one year is 759 yuan, with a much lower median value of 171 yuan. The estimated income elasticity of willingness to pay is 0.42. Using data on the incidence of cancer illness and death in the population, these willingness to pay figures imply that the marginal value of reducing the anticipated incidence of cancer mortality by one in the population is 73,000 yuan and an average value of 795,000 yuan, which are about six and 60 times average household annual income, respectively. The big difference between the marginal value and the average value of fatal risk reduction corresponds to a very low estimated elasticity of willingness to pay with respect to fatal risk reduction. This finding challenges the validity of previous studies of the value of a statistical life, which are mostly based on average willingness-to-pay values of mortality risk reduction.
Air pollution --- Cancer --- Consumer surplus --- Contingent valuation --- Contingent valuation method --- Demographics --- Developed countries --- Developing country context --- Durable goods --- Economic Theory & Research --- Economic value --- Economics --- Environment --- Environmental --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Environmental protection --- Health Monitoring & Evaluation --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- High unemployment --- Labor markets --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Population Policies --- Present value --- Social Protections and Labor --- Tradeoffs --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- WTP
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The main topics treated in this conference volume are problems of deflation and quality change, the adequacy of the data used to construct the U.S. national accounts, and the broad theoretical evolution of the U.S. national income and product accounts. As these topics suggest, this volume represents a new stage in the study of national income and product accounts in that emphasis is placed on the information content of the system rather than on the structure of the accounts. This new emphasis is highlighted by the inclusion of a discussion among prominent users of the national accounts-Lawrence Klein, Otto Eckstein, Alan Greenspan, and Arthur Okun-that indicates the difficulties that confront those who utilize this information.
National accounts --- United States --- National income --- Accounting --- Congresses --- BE / Belgium - België - Belgique --- US / United States of America - USA - Verenigde Staten - Etats Unis --- 339.0 --- 339.12 --- Algemeenheden. Nationale rekeningen. --- Bruto nationaal product. --- Conferences - Meetings --- Flow of funds --- Net national product --- Gross national product --- Income --- Accounting&delete& --- Algemeenheden. Nationale rekeningen --- Bruto nationaal product --- Finance --- National income - United States - Accounting - Congresses --- deflation, national accounts, arthur okun, alan greenspan, otto eckstein, lawrence klein, producer price indexes, quality adjustment, flow of funds, economic growth, data improvement, gnp, creamer report, business cycle, bea quarterly, defense purchases, durable goods prices, user-cost change, energy efficiency, resource-cost, user-value, nipa, economics, nonfiction, finance. --- United States of America
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