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La troisième revue d’un accord triennal au titre de la facilité élargie de crédit (FEC) (324 millions de DTS, soit 200% de la quote-part) s’est achevée le 19 juillet 2023. La dynamique de la croissance économique se poursuit, tandis que la hausse des coûts de production fait grimper l’inflation. Au premier semestre de 2023, les recettes pétrolières et non pétrolières supérieures aux attentes ainsi qu’une exécution budgétaire plus rigoureuse ont permis une amélioration du déficit budgétaire primaire hors pétrole de 0,6% du PIB non pétrolier par rapport à la troisième revue (rapport-pays n° 23/271). Cependant, le service de la dette extérieure plus élevé que prévu, du fait de la dépendance contractuelle à l’égard des cours du pétrole, a durci l’objectif ajusté relatif au solde primaire de base hors pétrole, si bien que l’objectif a été manqué de 0,9% du PIB non pétrolier. Le Congo a en outre accumulé moins de dépôts auprès de la BEAC par rapport à l’objectif initial. Bien que les arriérés extérieurs restent en deçà du seuil de minimis, la dette publique est jugée viable mais le pays est considéré « en situation de surendettement » en raison de l’accumulation fréquente de nouveaux arriérés extérieurs et de l’incertitude entourant l’ampleur des arriérés intérieurs.

Congo, Republic of

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The fourth review of a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement (SDR 324 million, 200 percent of quota) was concluded on December 20, 2023. Economic growth momentum softened in 2023 as oil production surprised on the downside, which, together with the 2023-2024 floods, challenges in the provisioning of electricity, and weaker public investment, weighed on non-hydrocarbon growth as well. Growth is expected to recover to close to 4 percent over the medium term. Under-execution of public spending across the board, but particularly on capital expenditures and social transfers, brought the 2023 non-hydrocarbon primary deficit to 8.4 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP, which is 3.2 percentage points lower than projected in the fourth review (CR 24/2). However, the current account weakened, a trend that is projected to continue over the medium term, as oil production stagnates while oil prices are slightly trending down. Despite external arrears remaining below the de-minimis threshold, public debt is assessed as sustainable but “in distress” due to frequent accumulation of new external arrears and lingering uncertainty about the size of domestic arrears.

Congo, Republic of

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November 1998 This paper analyzes the enormous obstacles that the Democratic Republic of the Congo faces in forming a stable, development-oriented state. No government could design, implement, and finance a development program for the country without coordinated analytical and financial support from the international community. And such support can be successful only if a powerful post reform coalition emerges that has a stake in maintaining the reforms. Torn by civil war for years, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire) has been in severe economic and political crisis. It lacks the prerequisites for a stable, development-oriented state: a sound fiscal base, revenue-generating ability, administrative capabilities, a monopoly over the means of coercion, and representative institutions that facilitate bargaining and decisionmaking about development strategies, policies, and programs. Mokoli and Binswanger examine the crisis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in light of the growing literature on the formation of states. They show that the country has many material features that have characterized coercion-intensive societies stuck in adverse policy traps. These include low population density, poor infrastructure, dominance of the mining sector, and an underdeveloped private sector and capitalist class. There are no truly national pressure groups with common economic interests. The administrative and bureaucratic apparatus is patrimonial, centralized, and poorly qualified. The prerequisites of stable, development-oriented decision-making-bargaining among equally powerful groups can therefore not emerge. Any coalition wanting to promote the emergence of a development-oriented state would therefore be dependent on continual, coordinated, long-term financial and policy support from the international community to build the central preconditions for a stable, growth-oriented state. Such a strategy, Mokoli and Bins-wanger say, must be based on social peace, the development of free markets (both urban and rural), a capitalist class, decentralization of government, and the strengthening of countervailing civic organizations at all levels. Institutions for representation and mechanisms for accountability will not function unless independent pressure groups emerge to counterbalance coercive state tendencies, as well as one another's tendencies to build and abuse power. These include labor unions, farmers organizations, and other national interest groups that can cut across regional and tribal affiliations. The authors use the framework they develop to propose priorities for a future government and the associated external support. This paper-a product of the Rural Development and Environment Department, Africa Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand how to assist countries with weak institutions. Hans Binswanger may be contacted at hbinswanger@worldbank.org.

Congo (Democratic Republic) --- Economic policy.

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Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.

Congo, Democratic Republic of the

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President Félix Tshisekedi was re-elected in December 2023 and a new Prime Minister was appointed on April 1, 2024, and the government on May 28. Meanwhile, the security situation in the East is deteriorating, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis that has displaced millions of people and amplifying the burden on public finances.

Congo, Democratic Republic of the