Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Episodes of rapid credit growth, especially credit booms, tend to end abruptly, typically in the form of financial crises. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive event study focusing on 99 credit booms. Loose monetary policy stances seem to have contributed to the build-up of credit booms across both advanced and emerging economies. In particular, domestic policy rates were below trend during the pre-peak phase of credit booms and likely fuelled macroeconomic and financial imbalances. For emerging economies, while credit booms are associated with episodes of large capital inflows, international interest rates (a proxy for global liquidity) are virtually flat during these periods. Therefore, although external factors such as global liquidity conditions matter, and possibly increasingly so over time, domestic factors (especially monetary policy) also appear to be important drivers of real credit growth across emerging economies.

Business cycles --- Financial crises --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Econometric models. --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- International Finance: General --- International Business Cycles --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Banking --- Credit booms --- Capital inflows --- Bank credit --- Money --- Balance of payments --- Central bank policy rate --- Financial services --- Capital movements --- Banks and banking --- Interest rates --- United States

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards relative to other small states due to their small populations, geographical isolation and dispersion, narrow export and production bases, exposure to shocks, and heavy reliance on aid. Higher fixed government costs, low access to credit by the private sector, and capacity constraints are also key challenges. The econometric analysis confirms that the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) have underperformed relative to their peers over the last 20 years. Although these countries often face more limited policy tools, policies do matter and can further help build resilience and raise potential growth, as evidenced in the recent business cycle. The Asia and Pacific small states should continue rebuilding buffers and improve the composition of public spending in order to foster inclusive growth. Regional solutions should also continue to be pursued.

States, Small --- Small economies --- Economic conditions. --- Asia --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Environmental Economics --- Economic Integration --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Demographic Economics: General --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Banking --- International economics --- Population & demography --- Climate change --- Income --- Terms of trade --- Government consumption --- Population and demographics --- National accounts --- International trade --- Environment --- Banks and banking --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Consumption --- Economics --- Population --- Climatic changes --- Marshall Islands, Republic of the --- Nternational cooperation

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper examines how Asian financial linkages with systemic economies have changed over time. After developing a factor model, it estimates Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies, and then seeks to uncover their key determinants, which include trade and financial linkages, as well as policies. In line with Asia’s growing role in the global economy—including through deeper financial integration—regional financial markets have become more sensitive to systemic economies. Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies exhibit cyclical fluctuations, and reached historically high levels during the latest global financial crisis of 2008–09. While macroeconomic policy frameworks have helped Asian economies cope well with market turbulence, they cannot completely insulate Asian financial markets against major global financial shocks. .

Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Economic development --- Asia --- Economic policy. --- Economic conditions. --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Capital market --- Business cycles --- Capital assets pricing model --- Econometric models --- E-books --- Capital asset pricing model --- CAPM (Capital assets pricing model) --- Pricing model, Capital assets --- Capital --- Finance --- Investments --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Capital markets --- Market, Capital --- Financial institutions --- Loans --- Money market --- Securities --- Crowding out (Economics) --- Efficient market theory --- Mathematical models --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: Stocks --- Investments: General --- International Finance: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Investment --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Investment & securities --- Macroeconomics --- Stock markets --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Foreign direct investment --- Stocks --- Financial markets --- Balance of payments --- Return on investment --- National accounts --- Stock exchanges --- Banks and banking --- Investments, Foreign --- Saving and investment --- United States

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.

Climatic changes. --- Disaster insurance. --- Disaster relief. --- Macroeconomic. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Environmental Economics --- Natural Disasters --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environment and Growth --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Fiscal Policy --- Foreign Aid --- Natural disasters --- Climate change --- International economics --- Fiscal stance --- Disaster aid --- Environment --- Fiscal policy --- Foreign aid --- Climatic changes --- International relief --- Vanuatu

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Net capital flows to emerging Asia rebounded at a record pace following the global financial crisis, raising concerns about overheating and financial stability. This paper documents the size and composition of the most recent surge to Asian emerging markets from a historical perspective and compares developments in the broader economy, asset prices, and corporate variables across the different episodes of strong inflows. We find little evidence of a significant build-up of imbalances and resource misallocation during the most recent surge. We also review country experiences in managing the risks associated with inflows and argue that Asian countries have used regulatory measures during past surges, although there is not strong evidence of their efficacy without supporting monetary and fiscal policies.

Capital movements --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Statistics --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Financial Markets --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Crises --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Capital inflows --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Balance of payments statistics --- Private capital flows --- Financial crises --- Economic and financial statistics --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China