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Economic history --- Economic policy --- International economic relations --- Mathematical models --- Mathematical models.

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The world is in the midst of a major demographic transition. This paper examines the implications of such transition over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, other industrial countries, and the developing regions of the world using a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium four-country model containing demographics calibrated to the "medium variant" of the United Nations population projections. We find that population aging in industrial countries will reduce aggregate growth in these regions over time, but should boost growth in developing countries over the next 20-30 years, as the relative size of their workingage populations increases. Demographic change will also affect saving, investment, and capital flows, implying changes in global trade balances and asset prices. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about future productivity growth and country external risk for the developing country region.

Aging -- Economic aspects -- Econometric models. --- Capital movements -- Econometric models. --- Demography -- Econometric models. --- Population -- Economic aspects -- Econometric models. --- Saving and investment -- Econometric models. --- Business & Economics --- Demography --- Population --- Aging --- Saving and investment --- Capital movements --- Econometric models. --- Economic aspects --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Accumulation, Capital --- Capital accumulation --- Capital formation --- Investment and saving --- Saving and thrift --- Age --- Ageing --- Senescence --- Human population --- Human populations --- Population growth --- Populations, Human --- Historical demography --- Physiological effect --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Capital --- Supply-side economics --- Wealth --- Investments --- Developmental biology --- Gerontology --- Longevity --- Age factors in disease --- Economics --- Human ecology --- Sociology --- Malthusianism --- Social sciences --- Vital statistics --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Investment --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Demographic Economics: General --- Health: General --- Population & demography --- Population & migration geography --- Health economics --- Demographic change --- Population and demographics --- Health --- Demographic transition --- Population aging --- Japan

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Background paper prepared for the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook. This paper provides a detailed presentation of the simulation results from the October 2020 IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 3 and an additional scenario with carbon pricing only for comparison with the comprehensive policy package where green investments were also included. This paper has greatly benefitted from continuous discussions with Oya Celasun and Benjamin Carton on the design of simulations; contributions from Philip Barrett for part of the simulations; and research support from Jaden Kim. We also received helpful comments from other IMF staff. All remaining errors are ours. McKibbin and Liu acknowledge financial support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CE170100005).

China, People's Republic of --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Taxation --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Natural Resources --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Quantitative Policy Modeling --- Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Environmental Economics: General --- Valuation of Environmental Effects --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Public finance & taxation --- Environmental economics --- Climate change --- Environmental management --- Carbon tax --- Taxes --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Environment --- Non-renewable resources --- Climate finance --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Environmental impact charges --- Greenhouse gases --- Emissions trading --- Natural resources --- Climatic changes

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How has increasing economic integration at regional and global level affected the functioning of the global economy? What are the consequences of globalisation and regionalism for world trade, production processes and domestic economies? What kind of economic adjustments do these phenomena imply in terms of factor mobility and relative costs? Globalisation, Regionalism and Economic Interdependence answers these and other questions by exploring the relationship between globalisation and regionalism from both academic and policy-making perspectives. It assesses the extent to which increased global and regional integration has changed the functioning of the world economy and analyses the implications for global trade, relocation of production, structural changes and the international transmission of shocks. With contributions from both academics and professionals, this book is an invaluable guide to the increasingly important effects of the interaction between globalisation and various different forms of regional integration.

International economic integration --- Free trade --- Regionalism --- Globalization --- AA / International- internationaal --- 382.11 --- 331.32 --- #SBIB:327.1H10 --- #SBIB:33H071 --- Theorie van het internationale evenwicht. Economische onafhankelijkheid van een natie. Globalisering. Mondialisering. --- Structuur van de economie. --- Internationale betrekkingen: theorieën --- Economische internationale betrekkingen --- Human geography --- Nationalism --- Interregionalism --- Common markets --- Economic integration, International --- Economic union --- Integration, International economic --- Markets, Common --- Union, Economic --- International economic relations --- Global cities --- Globalisation --- Internationalization --- International relations --- Anti-globalization movement --- Free trade and protection --- Trade, Free --- Trade liberalization --- International trade --- Structuur van de economie --- Theorie van het internationale evenwicht. Economische onafhankelijkheid van een natie. Globalisering. Mondialisering --- International economic integration. --- Free trade. --- Regionalism. --- Globalization. --- Business, Economy and Management --- Economics