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Fiscal vulnerabilities depend on both the level and composition of government debt. This study examines the role of debt thresholds and debt composition in driving the non-linear behavior of long-term interest rates through a novel approach, a panel smooth transition regression with a general logistic model. The main findings are threefold. First, the impact of the expected public debt level on interest rates rises exponentially when the share of foreign private holdings exceeds approximately 20 percent of government debt denominated in local currency. Second, when the share of foreign private investors is 30 percent, an increase in the share of foreign private holdings of government debt could raise long-term interest rates once the public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60 percent of GDP, offsetting the downward pressure on long-term interest rates from higher market liquidity. Third, out-of-sample forecasts of this novel non-linear model are more accurate than those of previous methods.
Debt Composition --- Debt Markets --- Debt Ratio --- Debt Service Burden --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Generalized Panel Smooth Transition Regression --- Long-Term Interest Rate --- Private Investment --- Public and Municipal Finance --- Public Debt --- Public Sector Development
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This paper investigates how the sector-specific source or the changing sectoral composition of labor productivity has contributed to aggregate beta convergence, using a newly constructed eight-sector database. The main findings are twofold. First, both within and sectoral reallocation have become important drivers of aggregate convergence in labor productivity. Second, agricultural productivity growth has been a significant contributor to aggregate convergence, whereas catch-up in other sectors has only contributed a small amount to convergence. The strong growth of the agriculture sector has been the most important driver of aggregate productivity convergence even though agricultural productivity itself in low-income countries is weakly converging to that in advanced economies.
Agricultural Productivity --- Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agriculture --- Convergence --- Labor Markets --- Labor Productivity --- New Sectoral Database --- Rural Development --- Rural Labor Markets --- Sector Reallocation --- Shift-Share Decomposition --- Social Protections and Labor
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This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of inflation shocks on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in 19 advanced economies using simulation and estimation approaches. The simulations based on the debt dynamics equation and estimations of impulse responses by local projections both suggest that a 1 percentage point shock to inflation rate reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 0.5 to 1 percentage points. The results also suggest that the impact is larger and more persistent when the debt maturity is longer, but the difference from the benchmark case is not significant. These results imply that modestly higher inflation, even if accompanied by some financial repression, could reduce public debt burden only marginally in many advanced economies.
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This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of inflation shocks on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in 19 advanced economies using simulation and estimation approaches. The simulations based on the debt dynamics equation and estimations of impulse responses by local projections both suggest that a 1 percentage point shock to the inflation rate reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 0.5 to 1 percentage points. The results also suggest that the impact is larger and more persistent when the debt maturity is longer, but the difference from the benchmark case is not significant. These results imply that modestly higher inflation, even if accompanied by some financial repression, could reduce the public debt burden only marginally in many advanced economies.
Advanced Economies --- Debt Markets --- Debt Service Burden --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Repression --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Public Debt --- Public Sector Development
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This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in EMDEs are not as well anchored as those in advanced economies, despite notable improvements over the past two decades. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However, EMDEs tend to be more successful in anchoring inflation expectations in the presence of an inflation targeting regime, high central bank transparency, strong trade integration, and a low level of public debt.
Developing Economies --- Economic Adjustment and Lending --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Structures --- Inflation --- Inflation Expectations --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary Policy
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