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Civil war has been a recurring feature of human societies throughout history - and an essential catalyst for major international conflict. Since 1945 the number of civil wars in the world has grown steadily, bringing devastation on a scale more traditionally associated with international wars. In spite of this, there is no standard treatise on civil war to compare with the classic works we have on war, revolution, or peace. On the one hand, historians have tended to treat the 'big' civil wars such as the American and the Spanish in isolation. On the other, social scientists have concentrated on identifying common patterns, without looking in too much detail at the specifics of any given conflict. Focusing on the numerous civil conflicts that have occurred throughout the world since the Second World War, the author bridges this gap, asking what the recent social-science literature adds to what we already know about civil war, but also how insights from the historical literature, from the ancient Greeks onwards, can help explain the violent experience of so may parts of the world since 1945. At its heart is the question of what makes the contemporary challenge posed by civil war so different to that of past periods - and what, if anything, is new about the experience of civil war at the dawn of the twenty-first century.
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Our understanding of civil war is shot through with the spectre of quagmire, a situation that traps belligerents, compounding and entrenching war's dangers. Despite the subject's importance, its causes are obscure. A pervasive 'folk' notion that quagmire is intrinsic to certain countries or wars has foreclosed inquiry, and scholarship has failed to identify quagmire as an object of study in its own right. The author provides the first treatment of quagmire in civil war. In a rigorous but accessible analysis, he explains how quagmire can emerge from domestic-international interactions and strategic choices. To support the argument, the author draws upon field research on Lebanon's sixteen-year civil war, structured comparisons with civil wars in Chad and Yemen, and rigorous statistical analyses of all civil wars worldwide fought between 1944 and 2006. The results make clear that the 'folk' notion misdiagnoses quagmire and demand that we revisit policies that rest upon it. The author demonstrates that quagmire is made, not found.
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Since World War II, civil wars have replaced interstate wars as the most frequent and deadly form of armed conflict globally. In this book, leading scholars guide us through what the latest research has to tell us about civil war onset, the duration and outcomes of civil wars, the recurrence of civil wars, and the consequences of conflict in war-torn countries such as Syria, Sudan, and Rwanda. This authoritative text offers both an accessible and current overview of current knowledge and an agenda for future research.
CIVIL WAR --- Civil war. --- Peace-building. --- Peacekeeping forces.
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Ce cahier decrit les mutations de la guerre civile syrienne et en tire des enseignements en termes de doctrine de contre-insurrection. L'etude a ete menee dans le but d'analyser les evolutions tactiques des differents acteurs qui y sont engages, avec leurs enjeux geopolitiques pour toile de fond. Il eclaire ainsi egalement sur les bouleversements regionaux provoques par ce conflit. Il constitue de ce fait une etude de cas pertinents dans le cadre d'une apprehension plus globale des conflits et des rivalites aux Proche et Moyen-Orient.
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This book offers a novel, incisive and wide-ranging account of Libya's '17 February Revolution' by tracing how critical towns, communities and political groups helped to shape its course. Each community, whether geographical (e.g. Misrata, Zintan), tribal/communal (e.g. Beni Walid) or political (e.g. the Muslim Brotherhood) took its own path into the uprisings and subsequent conflict of 2011, according to their own histories and relationship to Muammar Gaddafi's regime. The story of each group is told by the authors, based on reportage and expert analysis, from the outbreak of protests in Benghazi in February 2011 through to the transitional period following the end of fighting in October 2011. They describe the emergence of Libya's new politics through the unique stories of those who made it happen, or those who fought against it.
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This report provides thorough documentation of the impact of five years of violence and war on Syria's economy, and pays special attention to the plight of refugees and the extent to which Western sanctions have succeeded, or failed, in achieving their proclaimed objectives. Although the report is essentially focused on the socioeconomic consequences of the conflict, it goes further and provides several guiding principles and a preliminary action plan focused on the period immediately following an agreement on a political resolution to the crisis. It also offers valuable prescriptions by which the international community could, in the immediate term, mitigate the human damage caused by the crisis.
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La guerre de Syrie, qui a fait plus de 350 000 morts, s'est trouvee obscurcie par sa complexite geopolitiique, mais aussi par un dechainement sans precedent de la machine de propagande occidentale qui en a fait de maniere simpliste une lutte du bien (l'OTAN) contre le mal (Assad et ses soutiens, dont la Russie), l'ideologie prenant, dans les chancelleries, la place de la raison. Fort de son recul historique, l'auteur expose les enjeux regionaux et planetaires de cette guerre ; il montre le role de l'ideologie liberale-imperialiste (neo-conservatrice) dans son declenchement, l'alliance paradoxale, ignoree du grand public, entre l'OTAN et une rebellion essentiellement islamiste, la defaite finale des Occidentaux et ses immenses consequences. La guerre de Syrie, comme celles d'Afghanistan, d'Irak, et de Libye, est a l'origine d'une vague migratoire sans precedent vers l'Europe et n'est pas sans lien avec le retour du terrorisme. La France, engagee a fond du cote des rebelles, au mepris de ses interets les plus evidents et de sa mission historique de protection des chretiens dl'Orient, a, quant a elle, perdu l'essentiel de son credit dans la region.
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