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A sobering and fascinating study on war in the modern era, this book carefully explores strategies that militarily and politically disadvantaged nations might take in order to successfully attack a geopolitical superpower like the United States. American military doctrine is typically led by technology; a new class of weapon or vehicle is developed, which allows or encourages an adjustment in strategy. The authors argue that this dynamic is a crucial weakness in the American military, and that this blind spot with regard to alternative forms of warfare could be effectively exploited by enemies. This book concerns the many ways in which this might occur, and, in turn, suggests what the United States might do to defend itself. The traditional mentality that offensive action is limited to military action is no longer adequate given the range of contemporary threats and the rising costs - both in dollars and lives lost - of traditional warfare. Instead, the authors suggest the significance of alternatives to direct military confrontation, including international policy, economic warfare, attacks on digital infrastructure and networks, and terrorism. Even a relatively insignificant state can incapacitate a far more powerful enemy by applying pressure to their economic and political systems.

Polemology --- WAR--FORECASTING --- MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE--FORECASTING

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"Développement économique vertigineux, montée en puissance impressionnante, modernisation militaire sans précédent, passions nationalistes souvent incandescentes, confrontation de plus en plus intense avec les États-Unis, tous ces ingrédients connus semblent conduire immanquablement la Chine à la guerre.Les causes immédiates d'un conflit armé ne manquent pas : les prétentions de Pékin en mer de Chine du Sud, le conflit territorial sino-japonais autour des Senkaku (Diaoyu) et surtout la volonté farouche de Xi Jinping de réunifier Taiwan à la République populaire constituent les principaux barils de poudre qui peuvent à tout moment exploser. De fait, les prédictions d'un affrontement militaire dans le détroit de Formose d'où la Chine sortirait vainqueur se multiplient. Pour l'heure, ce que l'on observe avant tout est une utilisation de plus en plus fréquente par le gouvernement chinois de ce qu'on appelle les «zones grises» entre la paix et la guerre. Cette stratégie s'est étendue, en 2020, à la longue frontière sino-indienne. Ce nouveau modus operandi permet aussi à l'Armée populaire de libération (APL) et aux autres agences de sécurité chinoises d'améliorer leur capacité de projection de forces et leur préparation au combat. Mais les enjeux d'une guerre ouverte, et pas uniquement avec les États-Unis, restent énormes, incitant l'APL à d'abord envisager des «opérations extérieures» plus limitées et moins dangereuses. Pour ces raisons, bien que nul ne puisse contrôler les passions humaines, et sans pour autant exclure l'irruption de crises militaires, la Chine et les États-Unis s'orientent plus vers une guerre froide d'un nouveau type que vers une guerre chaude qui pourrait rapidement se nucléariser."

War --- Forecasting --- China --- Foreign relations --- Politics and government --- CHINA--FOREIGN RELATIONS --- War - Forecasting --- China - Foreign relations - 1976 --- -China - Politics and government - 2002 --- -War - Forecasting --- -War

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In 1912 Sir Arthur Conan Doyle wrote a short story about a war fought from underwater submersibles that included the sinking of passenger ships. It was dismissed by the British admirals of the day, not on the basis of technical feasibility, but because sinking civilian ships was not something that any civilised nation would do. The reality of war often contradicts expectations, less because of some fantastic technical or engineering dimension, but more because of some human, political, or moral threshold that we had never imagined would be crossed. As the author shows, ideas about the causes of war and strategies for its conduct have rich and varied histories which shape predictions about the future. He shows how looking at how the future of war was conceived about in the past (and why this was more often than not wrong) can put into perspective current thinking about future conflicts.

WAR--FORECASTING --- MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE--FORECASTING --- WAR--HISTORY --- MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE--HISTORY

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War. --- War --- World politics --- Guerre --- Politique mondiale --- Forecasting. --- Prévision --- Forecasting --- World politicsForecasting --- Prévision --- War - Forecasting --- World politics - 21st century

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In 1912 Sir Arthur Conan Doyle wrote a short story about a war fought from underwater submersibles that included the sinking of passenger ships. It was dismissed by the British admirals of the day, not on the basis of technical feasibility, but because sinking civilian ships was not something that any civilised nation would do. The reality of war often contradicts expectations, less because of some fantastic technical or engineering dimension, but more because of some human, political, or moral threshold that we had never imagined would be crossed. As Lawrence Freedman shows, ideas about the causes of war and strategies for its conduct have rich and varied histories which shape predictions about the future. Freedman shows how looking at how the future of war was conceived about in the past (and why this was more often than not wrong) can put into perspective current thinking about future conflicts.

WAR--FORECASTING --- MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE--FORECASTING --- WAR--HISTORY --- MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE--HISTORY --- War --- History --- Forecasting