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The concept of rational expectations has played a hugely important role in economics over the years. Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this book makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart. The accounts of the 'founding fathers' of the models themselves are also presented here for the first time. The authors trace the development of different approaches to expectations from the likes of Hayek, Morgenstern, and Coase right up to more modern theorists such

Rational expectations (Economic theory) --- Expectations, Rational (Economic theory) --- Economic forecasting --- Time and economic reactions --- Uncertainty

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Adolescents' beliefs in their personal control affects their psychological well-being and the direction their lives take. Self-Efficacy in Changing Societies analyzes the diverse ways in which beliefs of personal efficacy operate within a network of sociocultural influences to shape life paths. The chapters, by internationally known experts, cover such concepts as infancy and personal agency, competency through the life span, the role of family, and cross-cultural factors.

Adaptability (Psychology) --- Control (Psychology) --- Self-efficacy --- Congresses. --- Personality development --- -Control (Psychology) --- -Self-efficacy --- -Efficacy expectations --- Expectancies of self-efficacy --- Expectations of self-efficacy --- Self-efficacy expectancies --- Self-efficacy expectations --- Psychology, Applied --- Power (Psychology) --- Emotions --- Psychology --- Senses and sensation --- Adaptation (Psychology) --- Adaptive behavior --- Flexibility (Psychology) --- Malleability (Psychology) --- Personality --- Adjustment (Psychology) --- Congresses --- Developmental psychology --- Efficacy expectations --- Health Sciences --- Psychiatry & Psychology

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"Originally published in 1982. This book deals with exchange-rate determination and the implications of floating rate regimes for the time paths of prices and Quantities. It develops a class of stochastic equilibrium models of the open economy operating under flexible exchange rates, assuming that agents are endowed with rational expectations but do not possess full current information as to the state of the world. Chapters look at a model's response to economic disturbances, the effect on non-traded goods, and cyclical variations of the terms of trade. The final chapter considers a model to investigate purchasing parity issues."--Provided by publisher.

Foreign exchange rates --- Business cycles --- Rational expectations (Economic theory) --- Mathematical models.

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This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.

Macroeconomics --- Rational expectations (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Expectations, Rational (Economic theory) --- Economic forecasting --- Time and economic reactions --- Uncertainty --- Macroeconomics. --- Phelps microfoundations volume. --- Rational Expectations Hypothesis. --- Real Business Cycles. --- Ricardian Equivalence. --- asset prices. --- bounded rationality. --- economic theory. --- employment. --- expectation formation. --- expectational coordination. --- expectations. --- finance. --- financial crisis. --- financial instruments. --- inflation. --- informational efficiency. --- learning. --- macroeconometric models. --- macroeconomic analysis. --- macroeconomic models. --- macroeconomics. --- microfoundations. --- nonroutine change. --- rational expectations. --- rationality. --- real-time learning. --- unemployment.

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Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.

Rational expectations (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Psychological aspects. --- Behavioral economics --- Behavioural economics --- Expectations, Rational (Economic theory) --- Economic forecasting --- Time and economic reactions --- Uncertainty --- Business, Economy and Management --- Psychological aspects --- E-books --- Economics - Psychological aspects --- Microeconomics