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Empirical tests of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve have provided results often inconsistent with microeconomic evidence. To overcome the pitfalls of standard estimations on aggregate data, a Full Information Partial Equilibrium approach is developed to exploit sectoral level data. A model featuring sectoral NKPCs subject to a rich set of shocks is constructed. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the structural parameters are provided to allow sectoral idiosyncratic components to be linearly extracted. Estimation biases are corrected using the model's restrictions on the partial equilibrium propagation of idiosyncratic shocks. An application to the US, Japan and the UK rejects the purely forward looking, labor cost-based NKPC.
Phillips curve. --- Inflation (Finance) --- Unemployment --- Mathematical models --- Effect of inflation on --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Civics and Citizenship --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Labor Economics: General --- Civil service & public sector --- Labour --- income economics --- Sticky prices --- Price adjustments --- Civil society --- Labor --- Prices --- Economic sectors --- Labor economics --- United States
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Populists claim to be the only legitimate representative of the people. Does it mean that there is no space for civil society? The issue is important because since Tocqueville (1835), associations and civil society have been recognized as a key factor in a healthy liberal democracy. We ask two questions: 1) do individuals who are members of civil associations vote less for populist parties? 2)does membership in associations decrease when populist parties are in power? We answer thesequestions looking at the experiences of Europe, which has a rich civil society tradition, as well as of Latin America, which already has a long history of populists in power. The main findings are that individuals belonging to associations are less likely by 2.4 to 4.2 percent to vote for populist parties, which is large considering that the average vote share for populist parties is from 10 to 15 percent. The effect is strong particularly after the global financial crisis, with the important caveat that membership in trade unions has unclear effects.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Civics and Citizenship --- Political Economy --- Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Education: General --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Financial Crises --- Trade unions --- Education --- Civil service & public sector --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Labor unions --- Personal income --- Civil society --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- National accounts --- Economic sectors --- Financial crises --- Income --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- United Kingdom
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Presumptive income taxes in the form of a tax on turnover for SMEs are pervasive as a way to reduce the costs of compliance and administration. We analyze a model where entrepreneurs allocate labor to the formal and informal sectors. Formal sector income is subjected either to a corporate income tax or a tax on turnover, depending on whether their turnover exceeds a threshold. We characterize the private sector equilibrium for any given configuration of tax policy parameters (corporate income tax rate, turnover tax rate, and threshold). Given private behavior, social welfare is optimized. We interpret the first-order conditions for welfare maximization to identify the key margins and then simulate a calibrated version of the model.
Taxation. --- Duties --- Fee system (Taxation) --- Tax policy --- Tax reform --- Taxation, Incidence of --- Taxes --- Finance, Public --- Revenue --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Corporate Taxation --- Optimization Techniques --- Programming Models --- Dynamic Analysis --- Efficiency --- Optimal Taxation --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Public finance & taxation --- Sales tax, tariffs & customs duties --- Corporate & business tax --- Sales tax --- Corporate income tax --- Presumptive tax --- Compliance costs --- Revenue administration --- Spendings tax --- Corporations --- Income tax --- Tax administration and procedure --- France
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This report evaluates the observance of standards and codes on Financial Action Task Force recommendations for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) in Mexico. Mexico has a mature AML/CFT regime, with a correspondingly well-developed legal and institutional framework. The financial sector demonstrates a good understanding of the primary money laundering threats from organized crime groups and associated criminal activities as well as tax crimes, but the recognition of corruption as a main threat is uneven. Mexico also has a solid legal and institutional framework in place to seek and provide mutual legal assistance and extradition. The authorities also frequently rely on other forms of international cooperation to exchange information with other countries.
Public Finance --- Taxation --- Criminology --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Bureaucracy --- Administrative Processes in Public Organizations --- Corruption --- Public finance & taxation --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Crime & criminology --- Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) --- Legal support in revenue administration --- Crime --- Institutional arrangements for revenue administration --- Tax evasion --- Revenue administration --- Money laundering --- Revenue --- Crime--Economic aspects --- Mexico
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This paper examines the impact of e-invoicing on firm tax compliance and performance using administrative tax data and quasi-experimental variation in the rollout of VAT electronic invoicing in Peru. We find that e-invoicing increases reported firm sales, purchases and value-added by over 5 percent in the first year after adoption. The impact is concentrated among smaller firms and sectors with higher rates of non-compliance, suggesting that e-invoicing enhances compliance by lowering compliance costs and strengthening deterrence. The reform’s positive effects on tax collection are hindered by shortcomings in the VAT refund mechanism in Peru, suggesting that digital tools such as e-invoicing should be complemented by other reforms to improve revenue mobilization.
Investments: Stocks --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Taxation --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- Investment & securities --- Value-added tax --- Credit --- Tax administration core functions --- Tax return filing compliance --- Stocks --- Taxes --- Money --- Revenue administration --- Financial institutions --- Spendings tax --- Tax administration and procedure --- Peru
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This Technical Assistance (TA) report focuses on four key work areas which may lead to improvement of Government Finance Statistics (GFS) for fiscal analysis, support policy making decisions in Zambia, and improve African Department surveillance. The mission found out that the Coordinating Committee, recommended in the previous TA mission, was not yet established. The mission reviewed progress on the legal and institutional arrangements supporting the compilation of GFS as a follow up from recommendations of the previous GFS TA mission and found that the legislation reforms were on track, especially regarding the Public Finance Act. The report also found that Central Statistical Office (CSO) is working on the revision of the Statistics Act to follow the new strategy for National Development of Statistics. For sustainability and consistency purposes, the mission recommended that the CSO staff produce a GFS manual for compilation and dissemination of GFS data.
Monetary policy --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Accounting --- Labor --- Statistics --- Civics and Citizenship --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- Education: General --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Education --- Civil service & public sector --- Labour --- income economics --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Government finance statistics --- Civil society organizations --- Non-wage benefits --- Financial statements --- Economic and financial statistics --- Economic sectors --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Finance --- Civil society --- Employee fringe benefits --- Finance, Public --- Zambia
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After a decade of rapid growth, industrialization has lost ground with shrinking manufacturing sector and high informality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper explores how land market and labor regulations affect factor allocative efficiency and firm performance in SSA. Using pooled data on firm balance sheets for 40 countries in SSA, the results identify significant land and labor misallocations due to limited market allocation of land and inappropriate regulatory policies. Using variations in ethnic diversity and the intensity of regulatory actions to peer firms at subnational level as instrumental variables, local average treatment effects show large productivity gains from factor reallocations, especially for marginally productive firms. Panel data results for Nigerian firms confirm factor market inefficiency as a principal driver of declining productivity, while showing that the 2011 minimum wage reform increased firm size. The results imply that improving formal regulation is critical to support firm growth at the stage of weak legal capacity, while informal sector monitoring gets effective as legal capacity develops.
Economic development --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Econometrics --- Production and Operations Management --- Industrialization --- Manufacturing and Service Industries --- Choice of Technology --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Labor Economics Policies --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Labor Standards: Public Policy --- Economywide Country Studies: Africa --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Labor Economics: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labor Demand --- Labour --- income economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Minimum wages --- Labor markets --- Wages --- Labor demand --- Minimum wage --- Labor economics --- Labor market --- Nigeria
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In sub-Saharan Africa women work relatively more in the informal sector than men. Many factors could explain this difference, including women’s lower education levels, legal barriers, social norms and demographic characteristics. Cross-country comparisons indicate strong associations between gender gaps and higher female informality. This paper uses microdata from Senegal to assess the probability of a worker being informal, and our main findings are: (i) in urban areas, being a woman increases this probability by 8.5 percent; (ii) education is usually more relevant for women; (iii) having kids reduces men’s probability of being informal but increases women’s.
Informal sector (Economics) --- Hidden economy --- Parallel economy --- Second economy --- Shadow economy --- Subterranean economy --- Underground economy --- Artisans --- Economics --- Small business --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Women''s Studies' --- Gender Studies --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Economics of Gender --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income and Wealth: Africa --- Oceania --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Education: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Gender studies --- women & girls --- Education --- Social discrimination & equal treatment --- Labour --- income economics --- Women --- Gender inequality --- Informal employment --- Gender --- Sex discrimination --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Senegal
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The paper uses a unique survey of remittance-receiving individuals from Tajikistan to study the impact of policy awareness on consumer behavior. The results show that knowledge of deposit insurance encourages the use of formal channels for transmitting remittances and reduces dollarization. Given the size and importance of remittances in Tajikistan, improving financial literacy and better publicizing details of the social safety net may encourage a more frequent use of formal channels for transferring remittances and reduce reliance on foreign exchange for transaction purposes. This is likely to improve bank profitability, enhance financial stability, and improve access to finance.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Remittances --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Currencies --- Deposit insurance --- Balance of payments --- Money --- Dollarization --- Monetary policy --- Financial crises --- International finance --- Banks and banking --- Crisis management --- Tajikistan, Republic of
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Using business registry data from China, we show that internal capital markets in business groups can propagate corporate shareholders’ credit supply shocks to their subsidiaries. An average of 16.7% local bank credit growth where corporate shareholders are located would increase subsidiaries investment by 1% of their tangible fixed asset value, which accounts for 71% (7%) of the median (average) investment rate among these firms. We argue that equity exchanges is one channel through which corporate shareholders transmit bank credit supply shocks to the subsidiaries and provide empirical evidence to support the channel.
Capital market. --- Capital markets --- Market, Capital --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Loans --- Money market --- Securities --- Crowding out (Economics) --- Efficient market theory --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Economic Theory --- Financial Risk Management --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Organization of Production --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International Financial Markets --- Monetary economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Investment & securities --- Credit --- Supply shocks --- Bank credit --- Stocks --- Money --- Economic theory --- Asset valuation --- Asset and liability management --- Supply and demand --- Capital market --- Asset-liability management --- China, People's Republic of
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