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Is There a Phillips Curve? A Full Information Partial Equilibrium Approach
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ISBN: 1484346661 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Empirical tests of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve have provided results often inconsistent with microeconomic evidence. To overcome the pitfalls of standard estimations on aggregate data, a Full Information Partial Equilibrium approach is developed to exploit sectoral level data. A model featuring sectoral NKPCs subject to a rich set of shocks is constructed. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the structural parameters are provided to allow sectoral idiosyncratic components to be linearly extracted. Estimation biases are corrected using the model's restrictions on the partial equilibrium propagation of idiosyncratic shocks. An application to the US, Japan and the UK rejects the purely forward looking, labor cost-based NKPC.


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Populism and Civil Society
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ISBN: 1484385993 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Populists claim to be the only legitimate representative of the people. Does it mean that there is no space for civil society? The issue is important because since Tocqueville (1835), associations and civil society have been recognized as a key factor in a healthy liberal democracy. We ask two questions: 1) do individuals who are members of civil associations vote less for populist parties? 2)does membership in associations decrease when populist parties are in power? We answer thesequestions looking at the experiences of Europe, which has a rich civil society tradition, as well as of Latin America, which already has a long history of populists in power. The main findings are that individuals belonging to associations are less likely by 2.4 to 4.2 percent to vote for populist parties, which is large considering that the average vote share for populist parties is from 10 to 15 percent. The effect is strong particularly after the global financial crisis, with the important caveat that membership in trade unions has unclear effects.


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The Optimal Turnover Threshold and Tax Rate for SMEs
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ISBN: 1498314295 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Presumptive income taxes in the form of a tax on turnover for SMEs are pervasive as a way to reduce the costs of compliance and administration. We analyze a model where entrepreneurs allocate labor to the formal and informal sectors. Formal sector income is subjected either to a corporate income tax or a tax on turnover, depending on whether their turnover exceeds a threshold. We characterize the private sector equilibrium for any given configuration of tax policy parameters (corporate income tax rate, turnover tax rate, and threshold). Given private behavior, social welfare is optimized. We interpret the first-order conditions for welfare maximization to identify the key margins and then simulate a calibrated version of the model.


Book
Mexico : Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes-FATF Recommendations for Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT).
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ISBN: 1484335635 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This report evaluates the observance of standards and codes on Financial Action Task Force recommendations for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) in Mexico. Mexico has a mature AML/CFT regime, with a correspondingly well-developed legal and institutional framework. The financial sector demonstrates a good understanding of the primary money laundering threats from organized crime groups and associated criminal activities as well as tax crimes, but the recognition of corruption as a main threat is uneven. Mexico also has a solid legal and institutional framework in place to seek and provide mutual legal assistance and extradition. The authorities also frequently rely on other forms of international cooperation to exchange information with other countries.


Book
Digitalization to Improve Tax Compliance: Evidence from VAT e-Invoicing in Peru
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1513519441 1513513710 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the impact of e-invoicing on firm tax compliance and performance using administrative tax data and quasi-experimental variation in the rollout of VAT electronic invoicing in Peru. We find that e-invoicing increases reported firm sales, purchases and value-added by over 5 percent in the first year after adoption. The impact is concentrated among smaller firms and sectors with higher rates of non-compliance, suggesting that e-invoicing enhances compliance by lowering compliance costs and strengthening deterrence. The reform’s positive effects on tax collection are hindered by shortcomings in the VAT refund mechanism in Peru, suggesting that digital tools such as e-invoicing should be complemented by other reforms to improve revenue mobilization.


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Zambia : Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission.
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ISBN: 149830320X Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Technical Assistance (TA) report focuses on four key work areas which may lead to improvement of Government Finance Statistics (GFS) for fiscal analysis, support policy making decisions in Zambia, and improve African Department surveillance. The mission found out that the Coordinating Committee, recommended in the previous TA mission, was not yet established. The mission reviewed progress on the legal and institutional arrangements supporting the compilation of GFS as a follow up from recommendations of the previous GFS TA mission and found that the legislation reforms were on track, especially regarding the Public Finance Act. The report also found that Central Statistical Office (CSO) is working on the revision of the Statistics Act to follow the new strategy for National Development of Statistics. For sustainability and consistency purposes, the mission recommended that the CSO staff produce a GFS manual for compilation and dissemination of GFS data.


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Road to Industrialized Africa: Role of Efficient Factor Market in Firm Growth
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ISBN: 1484373278 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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After a decade of rapid growth, industrialization has lost ground with shrinking manufacturing sector and high informality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper explores how land market and labor regulations affect factor allocative efficiency and firm performance in SSA. Using pooled data on firm balance sheets for 40 countries in SSA, the results identify significant land and labor misallocations due to limited market allocation of land and inappropriate regulatory policies. Using variations in ethnic diversity and the intensity of regulatory actions to peer firms at subnational level as instrumental variables, local average treatment effects show large productivity gains from factor reallocations, especially for marginally productive firms. Panel data results for Nigerian firms confirm factor market inefficiency as a principal driver of declining productivity, while showing that the 2011 minimum wage reform increased firm size. The results imply that improving formal regulation is critical to support firm growth at the stage of weak legal capacity, while informal sector monitoring gets effective as legal capacity develops.


Book
Informality and Gender Gaps Going Hand in Hand
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ISBN: 1498317081 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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In sub-Saharan Africa women work relatively more in the informal sector than men. Many factors could explain this difference, including women’s lower education levels, legal barriers, social norms and demographic characteristics. Cross-country comparisons indicate strong associations between gender gaps and higher female informality. This paper uses microdata from Senegal to assess the probability of a worker being informal, and our main findings are: (i) in urban areas, being a woman increases this probability by 8.5 percent; (ii) education is usually more relevant for women; (iii) having kids reduces men’s probability of being informal but increases women’s.


Book
Deposit Insurance, Remittances, and Dollarization : Survey-Based Evidence from a Top Remittance-Receiving Country
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ISBN: 148430411X Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper uses a unique survey of remittance-receiving individuals from Tajikistan to study the impact of policy awareness on consumer behavior. The results show that knowledge of deposit insurance encourages the use of formal channels for transmitting remittances and reduces dollarization. Given the size and importance of remittances in Tajikistan, improving financial literacy and better publicizing details of the social safety net may encourage a more frequent use of formal channels for transferring remittances and reduce reliance on foreign exchange for transaction purposes. This is likely to improve bank profitability, enhance financial stability, and improve access to finance.


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Internal Capital Markets in Business Groups and the Propagation of Credit Supply Shocks
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ISBN: 1498316417 1498314414 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Using business registry data from China, we show that internal capital markets in business groups can propagate corporate shareholders’ credit supply shocks to their subsidiaries. An average of 16.7% local bank credit growth where corporate shareholders are located would increase subsidiaries investment by 1% of their tangible fixed asset value, which accounts for 71% (7%) of the median (average) investment rate among these firms. We argue that equity exchanges is one channel through which corporate shareholders transmit bank credit supply shocks to the subsidiaries and provide empirical evidence to support the channel.

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