Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)

Forecasting. --- Policy sciences. --- Forecasting --- Mathematical models. --- Data processing. --- Forecasts --- Futurology --- Prediction --- Policy-making --- Policymaking --- Public policy management

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Financial institutions. --- Business forecasting. --- Finance. --- Business --- Business forecasts --- Forecasting, Business --- Economic forecasting --- Financial intermediaries --- Lending institutions --- Associations, institutions, etc. --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics --- Currency question --- Forecasting

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

More than 15 years ago, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa embarked on a program of budgetary reform, an important element of which was a medium-term budget framework (MTBF). This working paper focuses on the performance of these frameworks in six countries–– Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. It assesses the effectiveness of MTBFs in achieving improved fiscal discipline, resource allocation, and certainty of funding, as well as wider economic and social criteria such as poverty reduction and more efficient public investment. In most countries, early successes were not sustained, and budgetary outcomes did not improve, partly for technical reasons, such as poor data and inadequate forecasting methodologies, but also because the reforms were largely supply driven. The paper argues that the development of MTBFs typically falls into four distinct phases. To make the transition from one phase to the next, developing countries should focus on building their capability in macrofiscal forecasting and analysis, and in improving the credibility of the annual budget process.

Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Budgeting & financial management --- Public finance & taxation --- Budget planning and preparation --- Medium-term budget frameworks --- Expenditure --- Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts --- Fiscal policy --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Budget --- Expenditures, Public --- Economic forecasting --- South Africa

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This Technical Assistance paper on Ukraine discusses medium-term budget framework (MTBF) and fiscal risk statement. In order to strengthen the medium-term orientation of the budget, the authorities have committed to implement a full-fledged MTBF as part of their Public Financial Management Reform Strategy (2017–21). The ability of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to enforce compliance with ceilings during the annual budget will be critical to the success of the pilot exercise. The MoF will need to develop a robust report explaining the ceilings for cabinet discussion and for presentation to the legislature. The authorities have been taking steps to improve their understanding and disclosure of fiscal risks and have made significant progress with the inclusion of a summary fiscal risk statement in the draft Budget Declaration. The institutional structures to support fiscal risk analyses and disclosure are also yet to be established.

Budget planning and preparation --- Budget Systems --- Budget --- Budgeting & financial management --- Budgeting --- Economic forecasting --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal risks --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts --- Macroeconomics --- Medium-term budget frameworks --- National Budget --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public Administration --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Ukraine

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This Technical Assistance Report discusses the progress made toward developing a medium-term budget framework (MTBF) in Poland. Many of the prerequisites for establishing an MTBF have already been satisfied in Poland. The annual budget has a high degree of credibility; macroeconomic projections are generally accurate; and fiscal rules on debt, expenditure, and the deficit provide sufficient guidance to fiscal policy in the medium term. However, some weaknesses remain that should be addressed either in parallel or as part of the MTBF reform. The design of the MTBF should be carefully considered to meet the government’s fiscal objectives while operating within current capabilities.

Finance, Public --- Budgeting --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomics --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Budgeting & financial management --- Public finance & taxation --- Budget planning and preparation --- Expenditure --- Medium-term budget frameworks --- Public expenditure review --- Fiscal policy --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts --- Budget --- Expenditures, Public --- Economic forecasting --- Poland, Republic of