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We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about ½ of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility appears to have played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings have been a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.

Business cycles --- Business cycles. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Information Management --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Business Cycles --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Knowledge management --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Technology transfer --- Current account --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Adjustment process --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Technology --- Balance of payments --- United States

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Recently, social science has had numerous episodes of influential research that was found invalid when placed under rigorous scrutiny. The growing sense that many published results are potentially erroneous has made those conducting social science research more determined to ensure the underlying research is sound. Transparent and Reproducible Social Science Research is the first book to summarize and synthesize new approaches to combat false positives and non-reproducible findings in social science research, document the underlying problems in research practices, and teach a new generation of students and scholars how to overcome them. Understanding that social science research has real consequences for individuals when used by professionals in public policy, health, law enforcement, and other fields, the book crystallizes new insights, practices, and methods that help ensure greater research transparency, openness, and reproducibility. Readers are guided through well-known problems and are encouraged to work through new solutions and practices to improve the openness of their research. Created with both experienced and novice researchers in mind, Transparent and Reproducible Social Science Research serves as an indispensable resource for the production of high quality social science research.

Reproducible research. --- Social sciences --- Research. --- consequences. --- erroneous published results. --- false positives. --- health. --- influential research. --- invalid research. --- law enforcement. --- new approaches. --- new generation of students. --- new insights. --- new practices. --- non reproducible findings. --- professionals. --- public policy. --- research practices. --- rigorous scrutiny. --- scholars. --- social science research. --- social science. --- sound research. --- summarize. --- synthesize.

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This paper examines the extent to which digitalization—measured by a new proxy based on IP addresses allocations per country—has influenced inflation dynamics in a sample of 36 advanced and emerging economies over 2000-2017. Phillips curve estimates show that digitalization has a statistically significant negative effect on inflation in the short run. Its economic impact is not large but has increased since 2012 and mainly operates through a cost/competition channel. Principal components and cointegration analysis further suggest digitalization is a key driver of lower trend inflation.

Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Information Technololgy --- Production and Operations Management --- Globalization --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Information and Internet Services --- Computer Software --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Globalization: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Information technology industries --- Digital or internet economics --- Digitalization --- Global value chains --- Digital economy --- Output gap --- Prices --- Technology --- Economic sectors --- Production --- Information technology --- Electronic commerce --- Economic theory --- China, People's Republic of

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This study analyzes composition of goods trade in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) along four main dimensions: revealed comparative advantage, product complexity, sophistication, and diversification. After describing some key trade patterns over the last half century, it compares the findings for LAC with other regions. Second, the study investigates how infrastructure quality, education, and tariff levels affect export composition. Third, using an approach based on product proximity, it aims to predict changes in LAC’s future composition of exports. The study concludes that policies to upgrade human capital and infrastructure are essential for increasing LAC’s export share in high-skill products.

Commerce --- Mathematical models. --- Latin America --- Economic conditions. --- Commercial policy. --- Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Commodity Markets --- Education: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- Education --- Exports --- Comparative advantage --- Tariffs --- Commodities --- International trade --- Taxes --- Income inequality --- National accounts --- Tariff --- Commercial products --- Income distribution --- Mexico

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This paper documents the downward trend in the labor share of global income since the early 1990s, as well as its heterogeneous evolution across countries, industries and worker skill groups, using a newly assembled dataset, and analyzes the drivers behind it. Technological progress, along with varying exposure to routine occupations, explains about half the overall decline in advanced economies, with a larger negative impact on middle-skilled workers. In emerging markets, the labor share evolution is explained predominantly by global integration, particularly the expansion of global value chains that contributed to raising the overall capital intensity in production.

Income distribution. --- Distribution of income --- Income inequality --- Inequality of income --- Distribution (Economic theory) --- Disposable income --- Income distribution --- E-books --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Globalization --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Globalization: Labor --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Globalization: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Labor share --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Global value chains --- Financial markets --- Wages --- Financial services industry --- Labor economics --- United States