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We estimate the effects on growth of nine fiscal reform episodes in seven high-income countries using the Synthetic Control Method. These episodes are selected using an indicator-based approach applied to the evaluation of growth-friendly fiscal reforms during 1975-2010. We find that in reform countries the annual growth rate of real GDP was on average about 1 percentage point above their synthetic units 10 years after each respective reform. Moreover, countries which were initially less developed seemed to experience a larger growth impact after their reforms. Results are broadly robust to controlling for structural reforms on business regulation, financial market, labor market, and legal and product markets, which may also affect growth. Our findings also suggest that inequality is not affected by the growth-friendly fiscal reforms analyzed in this paper.
Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Fiscal policy --- Structural reforms --- Personal income --- Income inequality --- Income distribution --- Macrostructural analysis --- National accounts --- Income --- Chile
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Empirical research on structural reforms has focused primarily on their impact on growth and productivity. Yet an often-invoked rationale for structural reforms is their impact on external adjustment. This paper finds little evidence that structural reforms improve the current account in the short run, but they can increase the responsiveness and resilience of the economy to external shocks. In particular, elasticities of exports with respect to the real effective exchange rate increase with some structural indicators, suggesting that structural reforms facilitate the reallocation of resources to the tradable sector in response to a negative external shock. The paper concludes that structural reforms, while not having an immediate positive impact on the current account balance, can be an important complement to traditional macroeconomic adjustment.
Economic development --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade and Labor Market Interactions --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: Public Policy --- Trade: General --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Current account --- Current account balance --- Exports --- Structural reforms --- Real effective exchange rates --- Balance of payments --- International trade --- Macrostructural analysis --- Greece
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Over the last few decades, Brazil has experienced relatively weak economic growth due to stagnant productivity. To boost productivity, Brazil should embark on an ambitious structural reform process. In doing so, it is crucial that authorities select a few reform priorities to avoid dispersing political capital on an overly broad reform agenda. The paper aims to identify Brazil’s reform priorities in two steps. First, it estimates the impact that different reforms have on Brazil’s productivity. Second, it analyzes survey data to assess the extent of public support for reforms. The results show that banking sector reforms would generate the largest productivity gains and have the highest level of public support. Moreover, they would also be relatively easy to legislate and generate significant fiscal savings.
Banks and Banking --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Survey Methods --- Labor Economics Policies --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Labour --- income economics --- Banking --- Structural reforms --- Labor market reforms --- Commercial banks --- Productivity --- Total factor productivity --- Macrostructural analysis --- Financial institutions --- Industrial productivity --- Manpower policy --- Banks and banking --- Brazil --- Income economics
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This paper discusses Arab Republic of Egypt’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Macroeconomic performance has remained strong in 2018/19, supported by continued sound policy implementation. The report highlights that monetary policy remains anchored by the medium-term objective of bringing inflation to single digits. Core inflation appears to be well contained, however the central bank should remain cautious until disinflation is firmly entrenched. Exchange rate flexibility remains essential to improve resilience to shocks and preserve competitiveness. The outlook remains favorable and provides an opportune juncture to further advance structural reforms to support more inclusive private-sector led growth and job creation. The authorities have launched important reforms of competition policy, public procurement, industrial land allocation, and state-owned enterprises, and sustained implementation will be essential to ensure that statutory changes achieve meaningful results in the business climate. Sustained efforts are needed to advance reforms in competition, industrial land allocation, and governance of state-owned enterprises.
Egypt --- Economic conditions. --- Currency --- Debt Management --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Deflation --- Energy industries & utilities --- Energy subsidies --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Exports and Imports --- External debt --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Inflation --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- International economics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomics --- Macrostructural analysis --- Price Level --- Prices --- Public debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Sovereign Debt --- Structural reforms --- Egypt, Arab Republic of
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This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the cyclical recovery in the euro area is firming and becoming broad based. Lower energy prices, supportive policies, stronger labor markets and a recovery in credit growth have boosted domestic demand, especially private consumption. The near-term outlook is favorable, with growth of 1.9 percent expected in 2017 and 1.7 percent in 2018. Although headline inflation picked up in the first half of 2017 owing to higher energy prices, core inflation has remained persistently low. The improving near-term outlook is clouded by significant downside risks, especially in the medium and long term, amid thin policy buffers.
Financial institutions. --- Financial intermediaries --- Lending institutions --- Associations, institutions, etc. --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- Production and Operations Management --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Fiscal Policy --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Banking --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Productivity --- Structural reforms --- Fiscal stance --- Output gap --- Production --- Macrostructural analysis --- Prices --- Fiscal policy --- Banks and banking --- Industrial productivity --- Economic theory --- Euro Area --- Income economics
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This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Lithuania has been gathering momentum, following sluggish performance in 2015 and most of 2016. Real GDP expanded by 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2017 after rising by 2.3 percent in 2016. Strong private consumption, on the back of robust wage growth and low inflation that supported purchasing power, has long been a main driver of growth. Building on recent momentum, economic growth should be strong in 2017, rising to 3.2 percent. Improving external conditions and a turnaround in European funds absorption, as well as high capacity utilization, should spur exports and investment.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Statistics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Structural reforms --- Wages --- Loans --- Income --- Fiscal policy --- Macrostructural analysis --- Financial institutions --- National accounts --- Lithuania, Republic of --- Income economics --- White-collar crime
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This paper assesses the effects of structural reforms on firm-level productivity for 37 developing countries from 2006 to 2014 period. It takes advantage of the IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements dataset for reform indexes and the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for firm-level productivity. The paper highlights the following results. Structural reforms such as financial, fiscal, real sector, and trade reforms, significantly improve firm-level productivity. Interestingly, real sector reforms have the most sizeable effects on firm-level productivity. The relationship between structural reforms and firm-level productivity is nonlinear and shaped by some firms’ characteristics such as the financial access, the distortionary environment, and the size of firms. The pace of structural reforms matters since being a “strong reformer” is associated with a clear productivity dividend for firms. Finally, except for financial and trade reforms, all structural reforms under consideration are bilaterally complementary in improving firm-level productivity. These findings are robust to several sensitivity checks.
Corporate Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Fiscal Policy --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Structural reforms --- Productivity --- Labor productivity --- Fiscal policy --- Business environment --- Macrostructural analysis --- Production --- Economic sectors --- Industrial productivity --- Business enterprises --- Bangladesh
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Korea is facing mounting economic challenges. Productivity growth has been on a trend decline amid demographic headwinds, while the societal demand for inclusive growth has been on a steep rise. Furthermore, the government-led unbalanced growth model—which served Korea well in the past—has become less effective and politically palatable in recent years. As such, Korea needs a major paradigm shift to embark on a new sustainable and inclusive growth path. But policy response has been modest at best with no major reforms being implemented over the past two decades. We propose a paradigm shift in Korea’s economic framework, involving a simultaneous big push for greater economic freedom and stronger social protection within the parameters set by long-run fiscal sustainability. We also provide a detailed account of structural reforms to boost economic freedom and sustainable funding plans for stronger social protection.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Development Planning and Policy: General --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Education: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Education --- Structural reforms --- Income --- Labor markets --- Macrostructural analysis --- National accounts --- Income inequality --- Labor economics --- Labor market --- Income distribution --- Korea, Republic of --- Income economics
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This paper analyzes the effects of selected structural reforms on output and employment in the short and medium term. It uses a comprehensive cross-country firm-level dataset covering both advanced and emerging market economies over the period 2003-2014. In line with previous studies, it finds that structural reforms have in general a positive impact on output and employment in the medium term. Furthermore, the paper also assesses whether the impact of structural reforms varies with firm-specific characteristics, such as size, leverage, profitability, and sector. We find evidence that firm characteristics do influence the effectiveness of structural reforms. These findings have relevant policy implications as they help policymakers tailor the design of structural reforms to maximize their payoffs, taking into account their heterogeneous impact on firms.
Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Economics of Regulation --- Microeconomic Policy: Formulation --- Implementation --- Evaluation --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Labor Economics Policies --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Structural reforms --- Commodity markets --- Labor market reforms --- Production growth --- Macrostructural analysis --- Financial markets --- Production --- Productivity --- Commodity exchanges --- Manpower policy --- Economic theory --- Industrial productivity --- Bosnia and Herzegovina --- Income economics
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The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged thus far. To make progress, we draw a parallel with model uncertainty in the growth literature and provide a new version of the Bayesian averaging of maximum likelihood estimates (BAMLE) technique tailored to binary logit models. Relying on a new database of major past labor and product market reforms in advanced countries, we test a large set of variables for robust correlation with reform in each area. We find widespread support for the crisis-induces-reform hypothesis. Outside pressure increases the likelihood of reform in certain areas: reforms are more likely when other countries also undertake them and when there is formal pressure to implement them. Other robust correlates are more specific to certain areas—for example, international pressure and political factors are most relevant for product market and job protection reforms, respectively.
Labor market --- Employees --- Market, Labor --- Supply and demand for labor --- Markets --- Supply and demand --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Labor Economics Policies --- Unemployment Insurance --- Severance Pay --- Plant Closings --- Economics of Regulation --- Labor Contracts --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Public finance & taxation --- Employment protection --- Labor market reforms --- Commodity markets --- Structural reforms --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Financial markets --- Macrostructural analysis --- Expenditure --- Manpower policy --- Commodity exchanges --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Russian Federation --- Income economics
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