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This paper assesses the effects of structural reforms on firm-level productivity for 37 developing countries from 2006 to 2014 period. It takes advantage of the IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements dataset for reform indexes and the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for firm-level productivity. The paper highlights the following results. Structural reforms such as financial, fiscal, real sector, and trade reforms, significantly improve firm-level productivity. Interestingly, real sector reforms have the most sizeable effects on firm-level productivity. The relationship between structural reforms and firm-level productivity is nonlinear and shaped by some firms’ characteristics such as the financial access, the distortionary environment, and the size of firms. The pace of structural reforms matters since being a “strong reformer” is associated with a clear productivity dividend for firms. Finally, except for financial and trade reforms, all structural reforms under consideration are bilaterally complementary in improving firm-level productivity. These findings are robust to several sensitivity checks.

Corporate Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Fiscal Policy --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Structural reforms --- Productivity --- Labor productivity --- Fiscal policy --- Business environment --- Macrostructural analysis --- Production --- Economic sectors --- Industrial productivity --- Business enterprises --- Bangladesh

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The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paper presents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework—a key input in the conduct of multilaterally-consistent external sector assessments of 49 advanced and emerging market economies—following the two rounds of refinements adopted since the framework was introduced in 2012 (as described in Phillips et al., 2013). It also presents new complementary tools for shedding light on the role of structural factors in explaining external imbalances and assessing potential biases in the measurement of external positions. Remaining challenges and areas of future work are also discussed.

Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange rates --- Current account balance (International trade) --- International payments, Balance of --- Foreign exchange --- Terms of trade --- Balance of trade --- International liquidity --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- International Financial Markets --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- International economics --- Currency --- Current account --- Current account balance --- Real effective exchange rates --- Capital controls --- External balance assessment (EBA) --- External position --- Capital movements --- International finance --- United States

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This paper takes a fresh look at the current theories of structural transformation and the role of private and public fundamentals in the process. It summarizes some representative past and current experiences of various countries vis-a-vis structural transformation with a focus on the roles of manufacturing, policy, and the international environment in shaping the trajectory of structural transformation. The salient aspects of the current debate on premature deindustrialization and its relation to a middle-income trap are described as they relate to the path of structural transformation. Conclusions are drawn regarding prospective future paths for structural transformation and development policies.

Macroeconomics. --- Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Production and Operations Management --- Labor --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Development Planning and Policy: General --- Institutions and Growth --- Economywide Country Studies: General --- Economywide Country Studies: Africa --- Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change --- Industrial Price Indices --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economic growth --- Manufacturing industries --- Labour --- income economics --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Structural transformation --- Manufacturing --- Income --- National accounts --- Productivity --- Production --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economic development --- Industrial productivity --- Economic theory --- Ghana

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We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.

Japan --- al-Yābān --- Giappone --- Government of Japan --- Iapōnia --- I︠A︡ponii︠a︡ --- Japam --- Japani --- Japão --- Japon --- Japonia --- Japonsko --- Japonya --- Jih-pen --- Mư̄ang Yīpun --- Nihon --- Nihon-koku --- Nihonkoku --- Nippon --- Nippon-koku --- Nipponkoku --- Prathēt Yīpun --- Riben --- State of Japan --- Yābān --- Yapan --- Yīpun --- Zhāpān --- Япония --- اليابان --- يابان --- 日本 --- 日本国 --- Economic conditions --- Econometric models. --- Jepun --- Yapon --- Yapon Ulus --- I︠A︡pon --- Япон --- I︠A︡pon Uls --- Япон Улс --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Financial Crises --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Financial crises --- Fiscal policy --- Exchange rate policy --- Trade policy --- Public debt --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Commercial policy --- Debts, Public --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009