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We undertake an extended discussion of the latest developments about the existing and new estimation methods of the shadow economy. New results on the shadow economy for 158 countries all over the world are presented over 1991 to 2015. Strengths and weaknesses of these methods are assessed and a critical comparison and evaluation of the methods is carried out. The average size of the shadow economy of the 158 countries over 1991 to 2015 is 31.9 percent. The largest ones are Zimbabwe with 60.6 percent, and Bolivia with 62.3 percent of GDP. The lowest ones are Austria with 8.9 percent, and Switzerland with 7.2 percent. The new methods, especially the new macro method, Currency Demand Approach (CDA) and Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) in a structured hybrid-model based estimation procedure, are promising approaches from an econometric standpoint, alongside some new micro estimates. These estimations come quite close to others used by statistical offices or based on surveys.
Informal sector (Economics) --- Hidden economy --- Parallel economy --- Second economy --- Shadow economy --- Subterranean economy --- Underground economy --- Artisans --- Economics --- Small business --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Economics: General --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Other --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labor Economics: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary economics --- Informal economy --- National accounts --- Labor force participation --- Currencies --- Economic sectors --- Money --- Informal sector --- National income --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- Slovak Republic --- Income economics
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The multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) method is a well-established tool for measuring informal economic activity. However, it has been criticized because GDP is used both as a cause and indicator variable. To address this issue, this paper applies for the first time the light intensity approach (instead of GDP). It also uses the Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) method to estimate the size of the informal economy for Sub-Saharan African countries over 24 years. Results suggest that informal economy in Sub-Saharan Africa remains among the largest in the world, although this share has been very gradually declining. It also finds significant heterogeneity, with informality ranging from a low of 20 to 25 percent in Mauritius, South Africa and Namibia to a high of 50 to 65 percent in Benin, Tanzania and Nigeria.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Economics: General --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Firm --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: National Income, Product, and Expenditure --- Money --- Inflation --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary economics --- Informal economy --- Labor force participation --- Personal income --- Currencies --- Unemployment rate --- Economic sectors --- National accounts --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Labor market --- Income --- Unemployment --- South Africa --- Income economics
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This paper examines the drivers, and reestimates the size of shadow economies in Europe, with a focus on the emerging economies, and recommends policies to increase formality. The size of shadow economies declined across Europe in recent years but remains significant, especially in Eastern Europe. In the emerging European economies, the key determinants of shadow economy size are regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and human capital. The paper argues that a comprehensive package of reforms, focused on country-specific drivers, is needed to successfully combat the shadow economy. The menu of policies most relevant for Europe’s emerging economies include: reducing regulatory and administrative burdens, promoting transparency and improving government effectiveness, as well as improving tax compliance, automating procedures, and promoting electronic payments.
Labor --- Economics: General --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Informal economy --- Informal employment --- Human capital --- Public employment --- Labor force participation --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic theory --- Labor market --- Income economics
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Using financial statement data from the Thomson Reuter’s Worldscope database for 22,333 non-financial firms in 52 advanced and emerging economies, this paper examines how fiscal stimulus (i.e., changes in structural deficit) interacted with sectoral business cycle sensitivity affected corporate profitability during the recovery period of the global financial crisis (GFC). Using cross-sectional analyses, our findings indicate that corporate profitability improved significantly after the GFC fiscal stimulus, especially in manufacturing, utilities and retail sectors. Firm size and leverage are also found to be significant in explaining changes in corporate profitability.
Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Fiscal Policy --- National Deficit Surplus --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic growth --- Banking --- Fiscal stimulus --- Expenditure --- Business cycles --- Central bank policy rate --- Fiscal policy --- Financial services --- Expenditures, Public --- Interest rates --- United States
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