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The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations
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Year: 2009 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper proposes that idiosyncratic firm-level fluctuations can explain an important part of aggregate shocks, and provide a microfoundation for aggregate productivity shocks. Existing research has focused on using aggregate shocks to explain business cycles, arguing that individual firm shocks average out in aggregate. I show that this argument breaks down if the distribution of firm sizes is fat-tailed, as documented empirically. The idiosyncratic movements of the largest 100 firms in the US appear to explain about one third of variations in output and the Solow residual. This "granular" hypothesis suggests new directions for macroeconomic research, in particular that macroeconomic questions can be clarified by looking at the behavior of large firms. This paper's ideas and analytical results may also be useful to think about the fluctuations of other economic aggregates, such as exports or the trade balance.


Digital
A Sparsity-Based Model of Bounded Rationality
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Year: 2011 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper proposes a model in which the decision maker builds an optimally simplified representation of the world which is "sparse," i.e., uses few parameters that are non-zero. Sparsity is formulated so as to lead to well-behaved, convex maximization problems. The agent's choice of a representation of the world features a quadratic proxy for the benefits of thinking and a linear formulation for the costs of thinking. The agent then picks the optimal action given his representation of the world. This model yields a tractable procedure, which embeds the traditional rational agent as a particular case, and can be used for analyzing classic economic questions under bounded rationality. For instance, the paper studies how boundedly rational agents select a consumption bundle while paying imperfect attention to prices, and how frictionless firms set prices optimally in response. This leads to a novel mechanism for price rigidity. The model is also used to examine boundedly rational intertemporal consumption problems and portfolio choice with imperfect understanding of returns.


Digital
Boundedly Rational Dynamic Programming : Some Preliminary Results
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Year: 2012 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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A key open question in economics is the practical, portable modeling of bounded rationality. In this short note, I report ongoing progress that is more fully developed elsewhere. I present some results from a new model in which the decision-maker builds a simplified representation of the world. The model allows to model boundedly rational dynamic programming in a parsimonious and quite tractable way. I illustrate the approach via a boundedly rational version of the consumption-saving life cycle problem. The consumer can pay attention to the variables such as the interest rate and his income, or replace them, in his mental model, by their average values. Endogenously, the consumer pays little attention to interest rate but pays keen attention to his income. One consequence of this is that Euler equations will be biased, and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution will be biased toward 0, in a manner that is quantitatively important.


Digital
Behavioral Macroeconomics Via Sparse Dynamic Programming
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper proposes a tractable way to model boundedly rational dynamic programming. The agent uses an endogenously simplified, or "sparse," model of the world and the consequences of his actions and acts according to a behavioral Bellman equation. The framework yields a behavioral version of some of the canonical models in macroeconomics and finance. In the life-cycle model, the agent initially does not pay much attention to retirement and undersaves; late in life, he progressively saves more, generating realistic dynamics. In the consumption-savings model, the consumer decides to pay little or no attention to the interest rate and more attention to his income. Ricardian equivalence and the Lucas critique partially fail because the consumer may not pay full attention to taxes and policy changes. In a Merton-style dynamic portfolio choice problem, the agent endogenously pays limited or no attention to the varying equity premium and hedging demand terms. Finally, in the neoclassical growth model, agents act on a simplified model of the macroeconomy; in equilibrium, fluctuations are larger and more persistent.


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A Behavioral New Keynesian Model
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper presents a framework for analyzing how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy. The model is a tractable and parsimonious enrichment of the widely-used New Keynesian model - with one main new parameter, which quantifies how poorly agents understand future policy and its impact. That myopia parameter, in turn, affects the power of monetary and fiscal policy in a microfounded general equilibrium. A number of consequences emerge. (i) Fiscal stimulus or helicopter drops of money" are powerful and, indeed, pull the economy out of the zero lower bound. More generally, the model allows for the joint analysis of optimal monetary and fiscal policy. (ii) The Taylor principle is strongly modified: even with passive monetary policy, equilibrium is determinate, whereas the traditional rational model yields multiple equilibria, which reduce its predictive power, and generates indeterminate economies at the zero lower bound (ZLB). (iii) The ZLB is much less costly than in the traditional model. (iv) The model helps solve the "forward guidance puzzle": the fact that in the rational model, shocks to very distant rates have a very powerful impact on today's consumption and inflation: because agents are partially myopic, this effect is muted. (v) Optimal policy changes qualitatively: the optimal commitment policy with rational agents demands "nominal GDP targeting"; this is not the case with behavioral firms, as the benefits of commitment are less strong with myopic forms. (vi) The model is "neo-Fisherian" in the long run, but Keynesian in the short run: a permanent rise in the interest rate decreases inflation in the short run but increases it in the long run. The non-standard behavioral features of the model seem warranted by the empirical evidence.


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Behavioral Inattention
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Inattention is a central, unifying theme for much of behavioral economics. It permeates such disparate fields as microeconomics, macroeconomics, finance, public economics, and industrial organization. It enables us to think in a rather consistent way about behavioral biases, speculate about their origins, and trace out their implications for market outcomes. This survey first discusses the most basic models of attention, using a fairly unified framework. Then, it discusses the methods used to measure attention, which present a number of challenges on which much progress has been done. It then examines the various theories of attention, both behavioral and more Bayesian. It finally discusses some applications. For instance, inattention offers a way to write a behavioral version of basic microeconomics, as in consumer theory, producer theory, and Arrow-Debreu. A last section is devoted to open questions in the attention literature. This chapter is a pedagogical guide to the literature on attention. Derivations are self-contained.


Digital
Linearity-generating processes: a modelling tool yielding closed forms for asset prices
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Year: 2007 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. NBER

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Variable rare disasters: an exactly solved framework for ten puzzles in macro-finance
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Year: 2008 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. NBER

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Power laws in economics and finance
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Year: 2008 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. NBER

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Tractability in Incentive Contracting
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Year: 2009 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper identifies a class of multiperiod agency problems in which the optimal contract is tractable (attainable in closed form). By modeling the noise before the action in each period, we force the contract to provide sufficient incentives state-by-state, rather than merely on average. This tightly constrains the set of admissible contracts and allows for a simple solution to the contracting problem. Our results continue to hold in continuous time, where noise and actions are simultaneous. We thus extend the tractable contracts of Holmstrom and Milgrom (1987) to settings that do not require exponential utility, a pecuniary cost of effort, Gaussian noise or continuous time. The contract's functional form is independent of the noise distribution. Moreover, if the cost of effort is pecuniary (multiplicative), the contract is linear (log-linear) in output and its slope is independent of the noise distribution, utility function and reservation utility. In a two-stage contracting game, the optimal target action depends on the costs and benefits of the environment, but is independent of the noise realization.

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