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The April 2012 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

Banks and banking --- Banks --- Commercial products --- Commodities --- Commodity Markets --- Commodity prices --- Depository Institutions --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Exports and Imports --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Housing --- Industries: Financial Services --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Commodities --- Macroeconomics --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Oil prices --- Prices --- Property & real estate --- Real Estate --- Trade: General --- United States

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In recent years, the authorities have put in place a sound macroeconomic policy framework that has reduced uncertainty and helped weather external shocks. The current macroeconomic policy mix combines moderately tight monetary policy with a broadly neutral fiscal stance. The medium-term growth outlook remains modest due to structural constraints and sanctions. The authorities have implemented some politically difficult measures in the past year (pension reform and a VAT increase) and have announced plans aimed at raising productivity growth, including higher public spending on infrastructure, health, and education. To significantly increase Russia’s long-term growth prospects and reduce stagnation risks, deeper efforts are needed to address the large footprint of the state, overbearing regulation, and governance and institutional weaknesses.

Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks and banking --- Correspondent banking --- Correspondent banks --- Deflation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Financial services industry --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Inflation --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomics --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Oil prices --- Price Level --- Prices --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Russian Federation

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KEY ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Context. Growth was anemic in 2014, reflecting preexisting structural bottlenecks exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainty and sanctions. The ruble depreciated for the most part of 2014 and came under severe pressures at the end of the year due to the sharp decline in oil prices and the intensification of sanctions. As a result, inflation accelerated sharply. In response, the shift to a flexible exchange rate was accelerated and monetary policy was tightened significantly. Measures to stabilize the banking system were introduced, including a bank capital support plan. The authorities’ policy response stabilized the economy. However, structural reforms have remained stalled. Near-term macroeconomic policy mix. The fiscal policy stance for 2015 appropriately allows for limited stimulus. Monetary policy normalization should continue at a prudent pace, commensurate with the decline in underlying inflation and inflation expectations. The size of the bank capital support program appears to be sufficiently large, but the parameters of the program should be adjusted to strengthen incentives for banks to seek private capital and reduce cost to the public sector. Medium-term policy challenges. An ambitious and credible medium-term fiscal consolidation program is necessary to adjust to lower oil prices. Changes to the fiscal rule should be considered to support medium-term fiscal sustainability. Boosting potential growth will require implementation of structural reforms. This would include (i) strengthening governance and protection of property rights; (ii) lowering administrative barriers and regulation; (iii) increasing competition in domestic markets; (iv) enhancing customs administration and reducing trade barriers; and (v) improving the transparency and efficiency of public investment procedures. Reinvigorating the privatization agenda, as soon as market conditions permit, would enhance economic efficiency. A deeper and more efficient financial system would improve the allocation of capital thereby enhancing economic growth.

Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks and banking --- Banks --- Correspondent banking --- Correspondent banks --- Currency --- Deflation --- Depository Institutions --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Exchange rates --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Inflation --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomics --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Monetary economics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money --- Mortgages --- Oil prices --- Price Level --- Prices --- Bulgaria

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Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia region have been hit by two large and reinforcing shocks, resulting in significantly weaker growth projections in 2020. In addition to the devastating toll on human health, the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in oil prices are causing economic turmoil in the region, with fragile and conflict affected states particularlyhard-hit given already large humanitarian and refugee challenges and weak health infrastructures. The immediate priority for policies is to save lives with needed health spending, regardless of fiscal space, while preserving engines of growth with targeted support to households and hard-hit sectors. In this context, the IMF has been providing emergency assistance to help countries in the region during these challenging times. Further ahead, economic recoveries should be supported with broad fiscal and monetary measures where policy space is available, and by seeking external assistance where space is limited.

Analysis of Health Care Markets --- Communicable diseases --- Covid-19 --- Diseases: Contagious --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal stance --- Health Behavior --- Health care --- Health Policy --- Health systems & services --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- International Economics --- International institutions --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Medical care --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Prices --- Kyrgyz Republic

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Global growth remains moderate and uneven, and a number of complex forces are shaping the outlook. These include medium- and long-term trends, global shocks, and many country- or region-specific factors. The April 2015 WEO examines the causes and implications of recent trends, including lower oil prices, which are providing a boost to growth globally and in many oil-importing countries but are weighing on activity in oil-exporting countries, and substantial changes in exchange rates for major currencies, reflecting variations in country growth rates and in exchange rate policies and the lower price of oil. Additionally, analytical chapters explore the growth rate of potential output across advanced and emerging market economies, assessing its recent track and likely future course; and the performance of private fixed investment in advanced economies, which has featured prominently in the public policy debate in recent years, focusing on the role of overall economic weakness in accounting for this performance.

Investments: Energy --- Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Oil prices --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Private investment --- Total factor productivity --- Oil --- Industrial productivity --- Financial services industry --- Saving and investment --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States