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This independent evaluation of the IMF’s role and performance in the determination and use of aid to low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa is presented at a ground-level view. Country performance has improved in many sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period, and the report details the role of the IMF’s programs, as well as perceptions of that role. The report is an important contribution to following through on the IMF’s commitment to its Poverty Reduction Strategy and makes three main recommendations for improving the coherence—actual and perceived—of the IMF’s policies and actions relating to aid to sub-Saharan Africa going forward.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Civics and Citizenship --- Social Services and Welfare --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Social welfare & social services --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Civil service & public sector --- Poverty reduction strategy --- Expenditure --- Poverty reduction --- Civil society --- Government debt management --- Poverty --- Expenditures, Public --- Debts, Public --- Balance of payments --- Ghana

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A fragile state, Guinea-Bissau has maintained robust growth at around 6 percent for the past three years despite a political crisis that led to multiple changes of government and absence of a functioning parliament for most of the period. A recent consensus-based appointment of a new Prime Minister and agreement to undertake parliamentary elections in November 2018 are relieving political tensions.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- External debt --- Public debt --- Revenue administration --- Government debt management --- Credit --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Revenue --- Tax administration and procedure --- Guinea

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context: A series of coups d’état since independence have resulted in chronic political instability and deterred economic and social progress. Guinea-Bissau has re-initiated progress since the assumption of office of the current inclusive government in mid-2014. The economy is now recovering after a decline in 2012 and marginal growth in 2013. Inflation remains low, and socio-political stability seems achievable. The coup d’état of April 2012 stalled implementation of the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF)- supported program approved by the Board in May 2010, and the arrangement lapsed subsequently. The Fund’s support under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement of 2014 and the authorities’ commitment to reforms have re-ignited donor confidence. Article IV Discussions. Policy discussions focused on measures to overcome fragility; fiscal consolidation and public financial management reforms; restoring financial stability; borrowing policies and long-term debt sustainability; private sector development and structural reforms to enhance inclusive growth prospects. The Proposed Program. The authorities’ development program, anchored on the Strategic Plan for 2014–18, aims to consolidate the fiscal position through better expenditure management and enhanced revenue mobilization, deepen institutional reform, mitigate vulnerabilities, and develop the private sector to support growth and employment. The program focuses on improving the policy framework by addressing governance and security issues, strengthening budgetary transparency as well as public investment and debt management, and improving compilation of statistics. Structural benchmarks focus on these issues while QPCs include a floor on revenues collection and a ceiling on net credit to government (the anchor of the program). Request for an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. To support their medium-term economic reform program, the authorities request a three-year arrangement under the ECF in an amount equivalent to SDR 17.04 million (120 percent of quota). Risks to the program include the still fragile political situation, which could delay implementation of reforms, adverse terms of trade developments, and weakening donor confidence, and the heightened risk of incursion of the Ebola virus from neighboring countries.

Computer Programs: Other --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Debt Management --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Exports and Imports --- External debt --- Finance --- Finance, Public --- Government debt management --- Government finance statistics --- International economics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Revenue --- Sovereign Debt --- Statistics --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Guinea

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The COVID-19 pandemic is taking a heavy toll on São Tomé and Príncipe. Tourist arrivals came to an abrupt halt in mid-March, externally financed projects are being delayed, and international supply-chains are disrupted. The challenging circumstances are further affected by the fragility of the economy and a weak health care system.

Accounts payable. --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Communicable diseases --- Covid-19 --- Debt Management --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Diseases: Contagious --- Exports and Imports --- External debt --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Health Behavior --- Imports --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- International economics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International reserves --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary Policy --- Public debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Sovereign Debt --- Trade: General --- São Tomé and Príncipe, Democratic Republic of

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A 36-month Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (hereafter the “arrangement”) was approved last December, with access of SDR 2,673 million (361 percent of quota). Lower international oil prices would reduce oil revenues, widen the current account deficit, and stymie growth recovery. The authorities are implementing a proper policy response to the weakened outlook, through a conservative supplementary budget for 2019, alternative sources of cheaper financing, and progress toward a more flexible exchange rate regime.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Criminology --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- External debt --- Public debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Money laundering --- Angola --- White-collar crime