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This paper presents a dynamic model of the industrial demands for structures, equipment, and blue- and white-collar labor. Our approach is consistent with producers holding rational expectations and optimizing dynamically in the presence of adjustment costs, yet it permits generality of functional form regarding the technology. We represent the technology by atranslog input requirement function that specifies the amount of blue-collar labor (a flexible factor) the firm must hire to produce a level of output given its quantities of three quasi-fixed factors that are subject to adjustment costs: non-production (white-collar) workers, equipment, and structures.A complete description of the production structure is obtained by simultaneously estimating the input requirement function and three stochastic Euler equations.We apply an instrumental variable technique to estimate these equations using aggregate data for U.S. manufacturing. We find that as a fraction of total expenditures, adjustment costs are small in total hut large on the margin,and that they differ considerably across quasi-fixed factors. We also present short- and long-run elasticities of factor demands.
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This paper examines five examples of rational expectations models with a continuum of convergent solutions and demonstrates serious difficulties in the economic interpretation of these solutions. The five examples are (1) a model of optimal capital accumulation with a negative rate of time preference, (2) Taylor's (1977) linear rational expectations model of macroeconomic equilibrium; (3) Calvo's (1984) model of contract setting and price dynamics; (4) Obstfeld's (1984) equilibrium model of monetary dynamics with individual optimizing agents; and (5) Calvo's (1978) life-cycle model of savings and asset valuation. In every case, when these models yield a continuum of convergent infinite horizon solutions, these solutions fail to exhibit economically appropriate, forward looking dependence of the endogenous variables on the paths of the exogenous forcing variab1es--a difficulty that does not arise under the circumstances where these models yield unique convergent infinite horizon solutions. Further, the three models that have natural finite horizon versions, either lack finite horizon solutions or have solutions that do not converge to any of the infinite horizon solutions. Again, this difficulty arises only under the circumstances where these models have a continuum of infinite horizon solutions.
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Computational Methods in Finance is developed from the author's courses at Columbia University and the Courant Institute of New York University. This text is designed for graduate students in financial engineering and mathematical finance as well as practitioners. It will help readers accurately price a vast array of derivatives.
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This note provides an update of the assessment of Lao P.D.R.'s macroeconomic conditions and outlook presented at the time of the 2004 Article IV.
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This note provides an update of the assessment of Lao P.D.R.'s macroeconomic conditions and outlook presented at the time of the 2004 Article IV.
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Economics --- Rational expectations (Economic theory) --- Choice (Psychology)
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