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Data from the Groningen Growth and Development Center's Africa Sector Database and the Demographic and Health Surveys reveals that much of Africa's recent growth and poverty reduction has been associated with a substantive decline in the share of the labor force engaged in agriculture. This decline is most pronounced for rural females over the age of 25 who have a primary education; it has been accompanied by a systematic increase in the productivity of the labor force, as it has moved from low productivity agriculture to higher productivity services and manufacturing. Although the employment share in manufacturing is not expanding rapidly, in most of the low-income African countries the employment share in manufacturing has not peaked and is still expanding, albeit from very low levels. More work is needed to understand the implications of these shifts in employment shares for future growth and development in Africa south of the Sahara.

Labor Productivity --- Structural Change

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In developing countries, younger and better-educated cohorts are entering the workforce. This developing world-led education wave is altering the skill composition of the global labor supply, and impacting income distribution, at the national and global levels. This paper analyzes how this education wave reshapes global inequality over the long run using a general-equilibrium macro-micro simulation framework that covers harmonized household surveys representing almost 90 percent of the world population. The findings under alternative assumptions suggest that global income inequality will likely decrease by 2030. This increasing educated labor force will contribute to the closing of the gap in average incomes between developing and high income countries. The forthcoming education wave would also minimize, mainly for developing countries, potential further increases of within-country inequality.

Demographic Trends --- Global Inequality --- Structural Change

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Empirical evidence indicates that in many developing regions, the extreme poor in more marginal land areas form a "residual" pool of rural labor. Structural transformation in such developing economies depends crucially on labor and land use decisions of these most-vulnerable populations located on abundant but marginal agricultural land. Although the modern sector may be the source of dynamic growth through learning-by-doing and knowledge spillovers, patterns of labor, land and other natural resources use in the rural economy matter in the overall dynamics of structural change. The concentration of the rural poor on marginal lands is essentially a barometer of economy-wide development. As long as there are abundant marginal lands for cultivation, they serve to absorb rural migrants, increased population, and displaced unskilled labor from elsewhere in the economy. Moreover, the economy is vulnerable to the "Dutch disease" effects of a booming primary products sector. As a consequence, productivity increases and expansion in the commercial primary production sector will cause manufacturing employment and output to contract, until complete specialization occurs. Avoiding such an outcome and combating the inherent dualism of the economy requires both targeted polices for the modern sector and traditional agriculture on marginal lands.

Dualism --- Energy --- Environment --- Marginal lands --- Primary products --- Rural poverty --- Structural change

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Been synonymous with development. However, the trend of premature deindustrialization and the spread of automation technologies associated with Industry 4.0 has raised concerns that the development model based on export-led manufacturing seen in East Asia will be harder for hitherto less industrialized countries to replicate in the future. Can services-led development be an alternative? Contrary to conventional wisdom, the features of manufacturing that were considered uniquely conducive for productivity growth - such as international trade, scale economies, inter-sectoral linkages, and innovation - are increasingly shared by the services sector. But services are not monolithic. The twin gains of productivity growth and large-scale job creation for relatively low-skilled workers are less likely to come together in any given services subsector. The promise of services-led development in the future will be strengthened to the extent that technological change reduces the trade-off between productivity and jobs, and growth opportunities in services with potential for high productivity do not depend on a manufacturing base. Considering technological change and linkages between sectors while differentiating across types of services, this book assesses the scope of a services-driven development model and policy directions that maximize its potential--

Digital Technology --- Economic Development --- Economic Growth --- Industrialization --- Jobs --- Manufacturing Sector --- Productivity --- Services Sector --- Servicification --- Structural change --- Structural transformation

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Economic growth in Benin, Burkina Faso, and Cote d'Ivoire occurred in tandem with a rapid exodus of labor out of agriculture. This paper investigates the contribution (or lack thereof) of within- and between-sector productivity changes to overall productivity growth and output per capita growth since 2000. Productivity growth was relatively significant in Burkina Faso, modest in Benin, and in the negative territory in Cote d'Ivoire. The results show that static structural change drove growth in Burkina Faso and Benin, although it was partly offset by a dynamic loss in Benin. However, structural change made a smaller contribution in Cote d'Ivoire. Within-sector productivity loss generally held back growth. The pattern of structural change observed in Benin, Burkina Faso, and Cote d'Ivoire starkly contrasts with that of Asia, where within-sector productivity gains were preponderant and dynamic structural change was the norm rather than the exception. The bulk of Benin, Burkina Faso, and Cote d'Ivoire's displaced agricultural workers moved into still-low productivity service activities, as is typical of the African sample.

Growth --- Labor Markets --- Labor Productivity --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Private Sector Economics --- Social Protections and Labor --- Structural Change