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This paper presents results from four simulations of the impact of potential tax reforms in Pakistan on poverty, shared prosperity, and inequality. The simulations are carried out in the context of a dynamic computational general equilibrium model that incorporates endogenous tax evasion. The simulations link the computational general equilibrium model to household survey data that are incorporated in a micro simulation model. The combined models suggest that equal yield increases in sales and corporate tax rates differ mildly in their impacts on consumption and poverty. Endogenously modeled tax evasion plays an important role in the results.
CGE Models --- Computable General Equilibrium Models --- Distributional Effects --- Tax Incidence --- Tax Reform --- Taxation
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Trade is a well-established driver of growth and poverty reduction.But changes in trade policy also have distributional impacts that create winners and losers. It is vital to understand and clearly communicate how trade affects economic well-being across all segments of the population, as well as how policies can more effectively ensure that the gains from trade are distributed more widely. The Distributional Impacts of Trade: Empirical Innovations, Analytical Tools, and Policy Responses provides a deeper understanding of the distributional effects of trade across regions, industries, and demographic groups within countries over time. It includes an overview (chapter 1); a review of innovations in empirical and theoretical work covering the impacts of trade at the subnational level (chapter 2); highlights from empirical case studies on Bangladesh, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Sri Lanka (chapter 3); and a policy agenda to improve distributional outcomes from trade (chapter 4). This book comes at a time when the shock from COVID-19 (coronavirus) adds to an already uncertain trade policy environment in which the value of the multilateral trading system has been under increased scrutiny. A better understanding of how trade affects distributional outcomes can lead to more inclusive policies and support the ability of countries to maximize broad-based benefits from trade.
Adjustment Costs To Trade --- Distributional Effects of Trade --- Gender --- Labor --- Policies To Share Gains From Trade --- Poverty
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The Millennium Development Goals call for reducing by half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water. This goal was adopted in large part because clean water was seen as critical to fighting diarrheal disease, which kills 2 million children annually. There is compelling evidence that provision of piped water and sanitation can substantially reduce child mortality. However, in dispersed rural settlements, providing complete piped water and sanitation infrastructure to households is expensive. Many poor countries have therefore focused instead on providing community-level water infrastructure, such as wells. Various traditional child health interventions have been shown to be effective in fighting diarrhea. Among environmental interventions, handwashing and point-of-use water treatment both reduce diarrhea, although more needs to be learned about ways to encourage households to take up these behavior changes. In contrast, there is little evidence that providing community-level rural water infrastructure substantially reduces diarrheal disease or that this infrastructure can be effectively maintained. Investments in communal water infrastructure short of piped water may serve other needs and may reduce diarrhea in particular circumstances, but the case for prioritizing communal infrastructure provision needs to be made rather than assumed.
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Understanding the economic and social effects of the recent global trends of rising market concentration and market power has become a policy priority, particularly in developing countries where markets are often more concentrated. In this context, since the poor are typically the most affected by lack of competition, new analytical tools to assess the distributional effects of variations in market concentration in a rapid and cost-efficient manner are required. To fill this knowledge gap, this paper introduces a simple simulation method, the Welfare and Competition tool (WELCOM), to estimate with minimum data requirements the direct distributional effects of market concentration through the price channel. Using this simple yet novel tool, this paper also illustrates the simulated distributional effects of reducing concentration in two markets in Mexico that are known for their high level of concentration: mobile telecommunications and corn products. The results show that increasing competition from four to 12 firms in the mobile telecommunications industry and reducing the market share of the oligopoly in corn products from 31.2 percent to 7.8 percent would achieve a combined reduction of 0.8 percentage points in the poverty headcount as well as a decline of 0.32 points in the Gini coefficient.
Distributional Effects --- Employment and Unemployment --- Inequality --- Information and Communication Technologies --- Information Technology --- Market Concentration --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Simulation --- Social Protections and Labor
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This study examines the green transition's effects on labor markets using a task-based framework to identify jobs with tasks that contribute, or with the potential to contribute, to the green transition. Analyzing data from Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States, we find that the proportion of workers in green jobs is similar across AEs and EMs, albeit with distinct occupational patterns: AE green job holders typically have higher education levels, whereas in EMs, they tend to have lower education levels. Despite these disparities, the distribution of green jobs across genders is similar across countries, with men occupying over two-thirds of these positions. Furthermore, green jobs are characterized by a wage premium and a narrower gender pay gap. Our research further studies the implications of AI for the expansion of green employment opportunities. This research advances our understanding of the interplay between green jobs, gender equity, and AI and provides valuable insights for promoting a more inclusive green transition.
Climate --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Global Warming --- Human Capital --- Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility --- Labor Productivity --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Occupational Choice --- Pollution Control Adoption and Costs • Distributional Effects • Employment Effects --- Promotion --- Skills
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We analyse the consequences of carbon price heterogeneity on households in The EU from 2010 to 2020. Accounting for both heterogeneity in carbon pricing across emission sources and the indirect effects from inter-industry linkages, we obtain two key findings. First, due to widespread carbon pricing exemptions, household burdens are lower than previously estimated. Second, lower-income groups are affected disproportionately, because they spend a smaller share of their expenditure on products that benefit from exemptions than their higher-income counterparts. Therefore, imposing uniform carbon prices both within and across countries would reduce carbon pricing regressivity on household expenditure in the EU. A global price would be most effective in this regard, as it would raise carbon prices embodied in EU imports. Further, because EU economies are open and apply higher average carbon prices than their trade partners, the domestic revenues exceed the costs embodied in EU household consumptions bundles. This increases the scope for reducing the burden of carbon pricing on lower-income households through revenue redistribution. Our results imply that the ongoing extension of carbon pricing to more sectors through the EU ETS II and the introduction of the EU’s CBAM should make carbon pricing less regressive, all else equal.
Environment and Development --- Environment and Trade --- Environmental Accounts and Accounting --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Environmental Equity --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Household --- Pollution Control Adoption and Costs • Distributional Effects • Employment Effects --- Population Growth --- Sustainability --- Taxation and Subsidies: Incidence
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Subsidies / Overheidsteun 336.563 --- Huisvesting 728.1:338.23 --- Nederland (492) --- Housing subsidisation --- Price distortions --- Distributional effects --- D61 --- D63 --- Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- E-working papers --- Carbon dioxide --- Environmental aspects --- Congresses --- Global warming --- Economic aspects --- Air --- Pollution --- Air quality management --- Government policy
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As the financial crisis has spread through the world, the lack of real-time data has made it difficult to track its impact in developing countries. This paper uses a micro-simulation approach to assess the poverty and distributional effects of the crisis in the Philippines. The authors find increases in both the level and the depth of aggregate poverty. Income shocks are relatively large in the middle part of the income distribution. They also find that characteristics of people who become poor because of the crisis are different from those of both chronically poor people and the general population. The findings can be useful for policy makers wishing to identify leading monitoring indicators to track the impact of macroeconomic shocks and to design policies that protect vulnerable groups.
Achieving Shared Growth --- Chronically poor --- Distributional effects --- Economic growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Food price --- Impact on poverty --- Incidence of poverty --- Income --- Income distribution --- Income inequality --- Income poverty --- Inequality --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomic shocks --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor people --- Poverty rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural --- Rural poverty --- Rural poverty rate --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment
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Measuring the poverty and distributional impact of the global crisis for developing countries is not easy, given the multiple channels of impact and the limited availability of real-time data. Commonly-used approaches are of limited use in addressing questions like who are being affected by the crisis and by how much, and who are vulnerable to falling into poverty if the crisis deepens? This paper develops a simple micro-simulation method, modifying models from existing economic literature, to measure the poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks by linking macro projections with pre-crisis household data. The approach is then applied to Bangladesh to assess the potential impact of the slowdown on poverty and income distribution across different groups and regions. A validation exercise using past data from Bangladesh finds that the model generates projections that compare well with actual estimates from household data. The results can inform the design of crisis monitoring tools and policies in Bangladesh, and also illustrate the kind of analysis that is possible in other developing countries with similar data availability.
Achieving Shared Growth --- Counterfactual --- Distributional effects --- Economic Theory & Research --- Employment status --- Global markets --- Household heads --- Household income --- Household survey --- Impact on poverty --- Income --- Income distribution --- Income poverty --- Inequality --- Macroeconomic shocks --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor rural households --- Poverty line --- Poverty rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural --- Rural areas --- Rural Poverty Reduction
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This paper analyzes changes in agricultural production and economic welfare of farmers in rural Peru resulting from a large irrigation infrastructure rehabilitation project. The analysis uses a ten-year district panel and a spatial regression discontinuity approach to measure the causal effect of the intervention. While general impacts are modest, the analysis shows that the project is progressive - poor farmers consistently benefit more than non-poor farmers. Farmers living in districts with a rehabilitated irrigation site experience positive labor dynamics, in terms of income and agricultural jobs. Poor farmers increase their total income by more than USD 220 per year compared with the control group, while rich farmers do not experience such an income gain. The results also show crop specialization patterns in the economic status of farm households; poorer farm households increase their production of staple crops, such as beans and potatoes, while non-poor beneficiary farmers cultivate more industrial crops. Findings from this evaluation have important implications for pro-poor policy design in the agricultural sector.
Agricultural production --- Agricultural products --- Agricultural sector --- Agriculture --- Crop diversification --- Crops & Crop Management Systems --- Distributional effects --- Farm households --- Income --- Inequality --- Insurance --- Irrigation --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor farmers --- Poor policy --- Poverty line --- Poverty Reduction --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural --- Rural areas --- Rural development --- Rural infrastructure --- Rural infrastructure development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor
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