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Demographic change can be a positive contributor to development at any stage of demographic transition. This paper revisits the literature on the determinants and economic impacts of demographic change, and presents a new global typology that classifies countries into four categories based on demographic characteristics and future development potential. In the first group are high-fertility, low-income countries that are lagging in many human development indicators. In the second group are mostly low- and lower-middle-income countries where fertility rates have started falling recently and where changes in age structure offer tremendous opportunity for growth in the near future. The third group comprises mostly upper-middle-income countries that experienced rapid fertility declines in the 1960s, and where working age people will be a shrinking share of the population in the coming decade. The last group is made up of mostly high-income countries that have some of the highest shares of elderly in the world, and below-replacement fertility rates since at least the 1980s. The typology helps identify development policy priorities for countries in different stages of demographic transition, and opportunities through globalization due to demographic differences between countries.

Demographic Change --- Demographic Dividend --- Economic Development

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The Russian Federation's population has been declining since 1992, but recently the decline appears to be over. Although fertility has risen since the 2007 introduction of the family policy package, which focused on stimulating second and higher-order births, total fertility rates still remain significantly below replacement rate. Unlike some Western European countries, low overall fertility in Russia can be explained predominantly by a high prevalence of one-child families, despite the two-child ideal family size reported by the majority of Russians. This paper examines the correlates of Russian first-time mothers' desire and decision to have a second child. Using the 2004-12 waves of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, the study focuses on the motherhood-career trade-off as a potential obstacle to higher fertility in Russia. The preliminary results indicate that among Russian first-time mothers, being in stable employment is positively associated with the likelihood of having a second child. Moreover, the desire to have a second child is positively associated with the first child attending formal childcare, which suggests that the availability, affordability, and quality of such childcare can be important for promoting fertility. These results are broadly consistent with previous studies in other European countries that indicate that the ability of mothers to combine work and family has important implications for fertility, and that pro-natalist policies focusing on childcare accessibility can offer the greatest payoffs. In addition to these factors, better housing conditions, being married, having an older child, and having a first-born boy are also positively associated with having a second child.

Demographic Change --- Fertility Rate --- Gender and Labor Market

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The demographic transition in the Sahel region has been slower than that in the rest of the world. Although child mortality rates have declined in recent decades, they are still higher in West Africa than in other regions. Furthermore, the fertility decline has progressed very slowly, with some countries seeing stalls and others even an increase in birth rates. The speed with which this transition takes place has a critical impact on a population's age structure and future potential for economic productivity. The current rates of change in the Sahelian sub region will make it unlikely that countries will achieve an age structure that will create a youth bulge of a healthy, well-nourished, and educated cohort ready to enter a modern labor market to capture a sizable demographic dividend. Once missed, this opportunity for a demographic dividend will not return. This analysis uses quantitative data triangulated with the qualitative findings and policy analyses to identify the triggers necessary to accelerate the demographic dividend in this sub region.

Demographic Change --- Demographics --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Skills Development and Labor Force Training --- Social Protections and Labor

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Italy’s pension system was reformed in August 1995. The new system has various desirable long-run properties and, overall, it represents an improvement over earlier systems. However, it fails to address two longstanding problems: extremely high contribution rates, and a lack of provisions for dealing with the substantial deterioration in demographic ratios expected over the next 30-40 years.

Labor --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Pensions --- Population & demography --- Labour --- income economics --- Pension spending --- Aging --- Demographic change --- Expenditure --- Population and demographics --- Population aging --- Demographic transition --- Italy --- Income economics

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The view that international migration has no impact on the size of world population is a sensible one. But the author argues, migration from developing to more industrial countries during the past decades may have resulted in a smaller world population than the one which would have been attained had no international migration taken place for two reasons: most of recent migration has been from high to low birth-rate countries, and migrants typically adopt and send back to their home countries models and ideas that prevail in host countries. Thus, migrants are potential agents of the diffusion of demographic modernity, that is, the reduction of birth rates among nonmigrant communities left behind in origin countries. This hypothesis is tested with data from Morocco and Turkey where most emigrants are bound for the West, and Egypt where they are bound for the Gulf. The demographic differentials encountered through migration in these three countries offer contrasted situations-host countries are either more (the West) or less (the Gulf) advanced in their demographic transition than the home country. Assuming migration changes the course of demographic transition in origin countries, the author posits that it should work in two opposite directions-speeding it up in Morocco and Turkey and slowing it down in Egypt. Empirical evidence confirms this hypothesis. Time series of birth rates and migrant remittances (reflecting the intensity of the relationship kept by emigrants with their home country) are strongly correlated with each other. Correlation is negative for Morocco and Turkey, and positive for Egypt. This suggests that Moroccan and Turkish emigration to Europe has been accompanied by a fundamental change of attitudes regarding marriage and birth, while Egyptian migration to the Gulf has not brought home innovative attitudes in this domain, but rather material resources for the achievement of traditional family goals. Other data suggest that emigration has fostered education in Morocco and Turkey but not in Egypt. And as has been found in the literature, education is the single most important determinant of demographic transition among nonmigrant populations in migrants' regions of origin. Two broader conclusions are drawn. First, the acceleration of the demographic transition in Morocco and Turkey is correlated with migration to Europe, a region where low birth-rates is the dominant pattern. This suggests that international migration may have produced a global demographic benefit under the form of a relaxation of demographic pressures for the world as a whole. Second, if it turns out that emigrants are conveyors of new ideas in matters related with family and education, then the same may apply to a wider range of civil behavior.

Birth Rates --- Country of Origin --- Demographic Change --- Demographic Pressures --- Demographic Transition --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Home Countries --- Host Countries --- International Migrants --- International Migration --- Marriage --- Migrant --- Migrants --- Overpopulation --- Policy --- Policy Research --- Policy Research Working Paper --- Population Movements --- Population Policies --- Progress --- Remittances --- World Population