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Weather-related natural disasters and climate change pose interrelated macro-fiscal challenges. Using panel-VARX studies for a sample of 19 countries in Developing Asia during 1970 to 2015, this paper contributes new empirical evidence on the dynamic adjustment path of growth and key fiscal variables after severe weather-related disasters. It does not only show that output loss can be permanent, but even twice as large for cases of severe casualties or material damages than people affected. Meanwhile, key fiscal aggregates remain surprisingly stable. Event and case studies suggest that this can reflect both a deliberate policy choice or binding constraints. The latter can make governments respond through mitigating fiscal policy efforts such as ad hoc fiscal rebalancing and reprioritization. The findings help better customize disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts to countries’ risk exposure along a particular loss dimension.

Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Natural Disasters --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Environment and Growth --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Natural disasters --- Fiscal policy --- Revenue administration --- Public debt --- Fiscal stance --- Environment --- Revenue --- Debts, Public --- Myanmar

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This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature.

Financial crises. --- International economic relations. --- Economic policy --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- International cooperation. --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- General Outlook and Conditions --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Financial Crises --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic growth --- Public finance & taxation --- Early warning systems --- Financial crises --- Cyclical indicators --- Expenditure --- Output gap --- Crisis management --- Business cycles --- Expenditures, Public --- Production --- Economic theory

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Using a comprehensive database on bank credit, covering 135 developing countries over the period 1960–2011, we identify, document, and compare the macro-economic dynamics of credit booms across low- and middle-income countries. The results suggest that while the duration and magnitude of credit booms is similar across country groups, macro-economic dynamics differ somewhat in low-income countries. We further find that surges in capital inflows are associated with credit booms. Moreover, credit booms associated with banking crises exhibit distinct macroeconomic dynamics, while also reflecting a potentially large deviation of credit from country fundamentals. These results suggest that low-income countries should remain mindful of the inter-linkages between financial liberalization, increased cross-border banking activities, and rapid credit growth.

Bank loans --- Macroeconomics --- Financial crises --- Banks and banking --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Economics --- Bank credit --- Loans --- State supervision --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Financial Crises --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Credit booms --- Capital inflows --- Banking crises --- Monetary expansion --- Balance of payments --- Monetary policy --- Capital movements --- United States