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The December issue of the Research Bulletin looks at “Seven Questions about Climate Change” (Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto). The Research Summaries review “Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth” (Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Frederik Toscani) and “Malaysia: Achieving High-Income Status through Resilience and Inclusive Growth” (Alex Mourmouras and Naimh Sheridan). The issue also includes regular updates on new IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, IMF books, and the IMF Economic Review.

Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Natural Resources --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics --- Environmental and Ecological Economics: General --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- Energy: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Climate change --- Environmental management --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Natural resources --- Non-renewable resources --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Oil --- Environment --- Commodities --- Climatic changes --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Greenhouse gases --- Saving and investment --- Malaysia

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World Bank economists expect GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to continueat a modest pace of 1.5 percent in 2019, slightly down from 1.6 percent in 2018. The declme reflectsa contraction in one large economy, which more than offsets growth in other countries. In the mediumterm, the World Bank expects real GDP in the MENA to grow at 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent in 2020and 2021, respectively. The expected upswing is partially driven by ongoing policy reforms, as wellas reconstruction efforts in some countries. However, MENA's modest recovery will be insufficientto change its historically low growth in per capita GDP. External factors are unlikely to pull the regionout of its low-growth equilibrium. In addition, many countries in the region have persistent currentaccount deficits. A recent deterioration in external balances across MENA constrained the region'sability to finance these deficits. Although the region has a low risk of experiencing sudden reversalsin capital inflows in the short run, structural reforms capable of raising aggregate labor productivityare urgently needed to gradually reduce external imbalances. The report concludes by providingexamples of reforms in fiscal policies, trade-related policies, social protection and labor markets, andstate-owned enterprises (SOEs) in network industries.

Current Account --- Economic Growth --- External Balances --- Fiscal Balance --- Oil Exporters --- Oil Importers --- Oil Prices --- Productivity

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This paper examines growth spillovers between emerging markets and advanced economies. The empirical results, based on a two-bloc setup and cover 1991 to 2015, are twofold. First, the paper shows that the size of the spillovers running from emerging markets to advanced economies is about a fifth of those running from advanced economies to emerging markets. Second, the results point to spillovers from emerging markets to advanced economies having increased over the second half of the sample period. The paper presents suggestive evidence that the (evolving) structure of interdependencies plays an important role in explaining the existence of "asymmetrical spillovers" between these similar size blocs.

Business cycles. --- Labor market.

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The paper deals with the economics of sustainability associated with the transformation of energy markets. It emphasizes the interrelations between technical changes and energy markets and how in turn the resulting transformations alter the sustainability of economic systems that are dependent on these markets. It also explores how innovation (or the lack thereof) is intimately linked to the ability of energy rich economies to adapt and transform. The agenda is especially relevant for oil rich countries that have announced or already put in place policies to help transform their economies and move away from dependence on oil. The agenda is also relevant for the global community, as it relates to the economic consequences of the needed transformation of energy markets to support the goal of limiting global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Change --- Climate Change and Environment --- Climate Change and Health --- Common Property Resource Development --- De Facto Governments --- Democratic Government --- Diversification --- Energy and Environment --- Energy Demand --- Energy Markets --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Innovation --- Legal Products --- Legal Reform --- Oil --- Real and Intellectual Property Law --- Renewables --- Science and Technology Development --- Science of Climate Change --- Social Development --- Social Policy --- Transformation

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Countries with greater commodity export intensity have more concentrated markets for imported goods. Within countries over time, import market concentration is associated with higher domestic prices, suggesting that markups due to greater concentration outweigh any potential cost efficiency. Hydrocarbon fuel exporting economies especially have higher tariffs, tariff evasion, and non-tariff measures that concentrate markets. These results suggest a novel channel for the resource curse stemming from the monopolization of imports.

Natural resources.