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Light --- Relativity (Physics). --- Velocity.
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This paper develops a simple general equilibrium model of a monetary economy with a capital market, in which monetary demand arises from a "cash-in-advance" constraint rather than from any direct role in the utility function. Uncertainty gives rise to a meaningful portfolio choice between money and bonds. We show that monetary velocity is increasing in the rate of inflation, and that the optimal monetary policy is that which maximizes real balances. We also show that the real rate of interest is not invariant to monetary policy: inflation lowers the real rate.
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The decline of velocity in the 1980s is a surprise that should not have been. Economists unwisely relied on a velocity trend of 3 percent per year when they should have insisted on an economic explanation for rising velocity. An analysis of velocity and interest rates from 1915 to 1986 suggests that the interest elasticity of money demand is substantially higher than previously thought. The postwar increase of rates followed by a major decline of rates in the 1980s explains velocity behavior. The large decline in velocity almost certainly would have caused severe economic problems had the Federal Reserve not accommodated the decline through more rapid money growth. Federal Reserve policy between October 1979 and October 1982 emphasized control of money growth. Money market behavior during this period, compared to periods before and after, provides strong evidence that the market sets interest rates on the basis of a sophisticated understanding of monetary policy. The evidence makes clear that the monetary authorities cannot use interest rates to provide information on the state of the economy unless they know the extent to which interest rates reflect expectations of future monetary policy.
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