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This paper shows that post-crash implicit distributions have been strongly negatively skewed, and examines two competing explanations: stochastic volatility models with negative correlations between market levels and volatilities, and negative-mean jump models with time-varying jump frequencies. The two models are nested using a Fourier inversion European option pricing methodology, and fitted to S&P 500 futures options data over 1988-1993 using a nonlinear generalized least squares/Kalman filtration methodology. While volatility and level shocks are substantially negatively correlated, the stochastic volatility model can explain the implicit negative skewness only under extreme parameters (e.g., high volatility of volatility) that are implausible given the time series properties of option prices. By contrast, the stochastic volatility/jump-diffusion model generates substantially more plausible parameter" estimates. Evidence is also presented against the hypothesis that volatility follows a diffusion.

Stock Market Crash, 1987.

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This paper examines the spurt in U.S. unionism during the Great Depression. It argues that the Depression spurt is better understood as resulting from a Depression sparked endogenous social process than from New Deal legislation and Congress of Industrial Organizations (CIO) leadership. Four pieces of evidence are offered for this interpretation: 1. The ubiquity of spurts in unionization across countries, particularly in the Depression. 2. The widespread use of recognition strikes during the 1930s spurt. 3. The growth of CIO affiliates with little CIO financial or organizing aid. 4. The growth of American Federation of Labor (AFL) affiliated unions. I model unionization as the outcome from a conflict between union/worker organizing activity and employer opposition, both of which depend on the proportion organized. Union organizing and activity rises with density, then falls with density. Employer opposition is high at low densities but falls once unions gain control of the relevant market. The result is a nonlinear difference equation that produces spurts of union growth. The Depression initiated a spurt by increasing worker desires for unions and by raising density above the critical level' for rapid growth in many industries.

Stock Market Crash, 1929.

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Stock Market Crash, 1929

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Depressions --- Stock Market Crash, 1929

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Depressions --- Stock Market Crash, 1929