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This paper investigates the factors that affect inflation in the GCC region by examining the inflationary processes in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The paper utilizes a model that accounts for foreign factors affecting inflation, such as trading partners' inflation and exchange rate pass-through effect, as well as domestic influences. The analysis concludes that, in the long run, higher inflation in trading partners' countries is the main driving force for inflation in the two countries, with significant but lower contributions from the exchange rate pass-through effect and oil prices. Demand and money supply shocks affect inflation in the short run.

Inflation (Finance) --- Econometric models. --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Demand for Money --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary base --- Demand for money --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Oil prices --- Money supply --- Money --- Saudi Arabia

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This paper presents a macroeconomic model of the Nigerian economy. The long-run relationships pertaining to the markets for money, foreign exchange, and (non-oil) output are estimated. Subsequently, dynamic equations are estimated for the price level, the real exchange rate, and output. The results are instrumental in explaining the dramatic developments on the foreign exchange market during 1983-86 and 1992-94, the secular depreciation of the real exchange rate since 1985, and the rise and fall of inflation during 1991-97. The methodology could usefully be applied to other economies whose exports are insensitive to exchange rate movements (e.g., other oil-based economies).

Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Potential output --- Monetary base --- Production --- Money --- Economic theory --- Money supply --- Nigeria

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The paper presents a measure of monetary impulse that is intended to reflect the medium-term inflationary implications of a nation’s current monetary policy. The measure consists of the growth rate of the monetary base, adjusted for reserve requirement changes and augmented by an implicit forecast of future growth rates of base velocity. Time series plots of the impulse measure for the G-7 countries are presented, and are compared with plots of inflation and of two alternative monetary indicators—the yield curve slope and the growth rate of a broad monetary aggregate. The impulse measure serves well as a medium-term indicator of future inflation, and on balance matches or outperforms the alternative indicators.

Inflation --- Investments: Bonds --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Investment & securities --- Monetary aggregates --- Monetary base --- Sovereign bonds --- Bond yields --- Money --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- Money supply --- Bonds --- Germany

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In light of the persistence of moderate inflation in many transition economies, this paper analyzes whether inflation resulted from insufficiently tight financial policies and wage pressures or from the protracted adjustment of relative prices. Using a new database for 21 countries, the effect of relative price variability on inflation is estimated within a framework controlling for nominal and real shocks. Money and wage growth were the most important determinants of inflation; relative price variability had a sizable effect at high inflation during initial liberalization and a small effect at moderate inflation. Cost recovery may contribute to variability, particularly in the advanced stages of the transition.

Comparative Studies of Particular Economies --- Currency --- Deflation --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Income economics --- Inflation --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary base --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money supply --- Money --- Price adjustments --- Price Level --- Prices --- Real exchange rates --- Wages --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Czech Republic

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This paper analyzes monetary policy in transition. It examines the dynamics of monetary policy in Mongolia using granger-causality tests for monetary variables and inflation. The paper also analyzes money demand using data from 22 Mongolian regions during 1993-1998. The analyses confirm the key role of monetary policy in stabilization and reveal that even in a transition economy as rudimentary as Mongolia, a stable money demand and a predictable relationship between inflation and monetary variables do exist. Hence market-based monetary policy is effective. In addition, the analysis points to a difference between transition and industrial economies in the elasticity of money demand with respect to activity, reflecting the larger role for transactions demand for money.

Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Demand for Money --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: National Income, Product, and Expenditure --- Money --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Demand for money --- Exchange rates --- Monetary base --- Personal income --- Prices --- National accounts --- Money supply --- Income --- Mongolia