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The object of this paper is to bring to bear on financial-non financial interactions a richer approach to modeling the determination of long-term interest rates. in a series of previous papers. I have developed an alternative model based explicitly on the truism that any factor affecting long-term bond yields does so by (and only by) influencing some borrower's supply of bonds and/or some lender's demand for bonds. Rather than model the bond yield directly, as in the single-equation term-structure approach, this work instead models the supply of and the demand for bonds ,and determines the bond yield at the level necessary to equate resulting total supply and demand. The specific bond supplies and demands modeled in this work are those in the U .S. market for corporate bonds; this market is the primary source of long-term external lands to finance business fixed investment, and the corporate bond yield is also the long-term interest rate most frequently used in single-equation models of term-structure relationships. This paper reports the implications of this supply-demand model of long-term interest rate determination for the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies, as modeled in all other respects by the MJT-Penn-SSRC (henceforth MPS) econometric model of the United Stares. The new research tool applied in this paper is therefore altered MPS model from which the usual single term-structure equation has been removed and into which a supply-demand model of the bond market has been substituted. The only difference between this altered MPS model and the familiar NIPS model therefore lies in the determination of long-term asset yields and prices. Since these long-term yields and prices are such an important part of the overall bearing of financial market developments on nonfinancial behavior, however, the altered model exhibits interesting implications for fiscal and monetary policies.

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L’évolution des taux d’intérêt est souvent au centre de l’actualité économique et politique, nationale et mondiale. À la suite de la crise financière de 2008, les taux d’intérêt fixés par les banques centrales ont atteint des niveaux proches de zéro. Mais les taux d’intérêt auxquels empruntent les entreprises, les ménages et les États varient selon l’horizon de l’emprunt (à un mois ou à dix ans, par exemple) et selon le risque perçu par les prêteurs. Ce livre, rédigé par trois spécialistes reconnues, explique comment se forment les taux d’intérêt et quel rôle ils jouent dans l’économie, en s’appuyant sur des mécanismes simples et sur les évolutions marquantes observées dans les économies avancées

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Keynes présentait les « taux zéro » comme l'arme de l'euthanasie du rentier. Mais nous vivons aussi la disparition des banques, celle, plus rapide encore s'ils ne changent pas de modèle, des assureurs-vie, l'instabilité chronique des marchés financiers, la douloureuse mutation des Banques centrales… bref, l'explosion d'un système financier que l'on tente pourtant de reconstruire depuis la crise financière de 2007-2008 à coup de règles et de normes. Et face à cela, des États surendettés rêvent d'échapper aux contraintes en empruntant sans douleur, des entreprises peuvent réinvestir dans des projets, des jeunes vont enfin créer leur entreprise, des épargnants moins jeunes sont forcés de prendre des risques dont ils ne voulaient pas quand le monde semblait calme. Ce livre nous invite à comprendre la transformation en cours, à partir de ce qui est au cœur de nos économies : le prix de l'argent. Et à voyager au bout de notre économie, qui se mue sous nos yeux en un monde nouveau. Un monde où il ne suffit plus d'inverser la courbe du chômage mais bien de le supprimer. Ce voyage vaut bien un détour par la théorie économique.

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This 2022 Article IV Consultation presents that after a deeper pandemic-induced recession than the rest of the euro area in 2020, the Portuguese economy gained ground in 2021, and growth strengthened further in 2022:Q1. Policies need to balance short-term urgencies with a smooth transition to private-led growth, rebuilding fiscal space and advancing reforms for stronger growth and a more resilient economy. The 2022 budget remains suitably accommodative, excluding the appropriate unwinding of coronavirus disease 2019 measures. Broad-based measures in response to the energy price shock must be kept temporary and preferably replaced with more targeted measures to mitigate the impact on vulnerable households. Fiscal policy needs to be flexible for further support under severe adverse scenarios or more savings under fiscal over performance. A timely implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan through efficient and transparent planning and budgeting, organization and oversight of the investments and reforms, coupled with reforms to reduce labor market duality and strengthen insolvency regimes would limit scarring, raise living standards, and build a more dynamic economy.

Interest rates.