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June 1999 - A regime-switching framework is used to study speculative attacks against European Monetary System currencies during 1979-93. Peria uses a regime-switching framework to study speculative attacks against European Monetary System (EMS) currencies during 1979-93. She identifies speculative attacks by modeling exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates as time series subject to discrete regime shifts. She assumes two states: tranquil and speculative. She models the probabilities of switching between states as a function of fundamentals and expectations. She concludes that: The switching models with time-varying transition probabilities capture most of the conventional episodes of speculative attacks; Speculative attacks do not always coincide with currency realignments. Both economic fundamentals and expectations determine the likelihood of switching from a period of tranquility to a speculative attack. The budget deficit appears to be an especially important factor driving the probability of switching to a speculative regime. Given the importance of anticipating and, wherever possible, avoiding crises, it might be useful to conduct forecasting exercises to determine whether the switching framework proposed here can be used to forecast crises in countries outside the sample. Because currency crises tend to occur simultaneously in two or more countries, it also might be useful to adapt the regime-switching framework to explore the role of contagion in explaining crises. This paper-a product of Finance, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to understand currency crises. The author may be contacted at mmartinezperia@worldbank.org.
Central Bank --- Crawling Peg --- Currencies --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Currency --- Debt Markets --- Dependent Variable --- Devaluations --- Economic Stabilization --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- European Monetary System --- Exchange Rate --- Exchange Rate Mechanism --- Exchange Rates --- Federal Reserve --- Federal Reserve Bank --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Financial Markets --- Fixed Exchange Rate --- Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes --- Fixed Exchange Rate Systems --- Interest Rates --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development --- Speculative Attack --- Speculative Attacks --- Speculative Pressure
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339.73 --- AA / International- internationaal --- EEC / European Union - EU -Europese Unie - Union Européenne - UE --- 305.92 --- 334.151.20 --- 334.151.27 --- 334.151.25 --- 333.451.1 --- Exchange Rate Mechanism --- EMS crisis --- Monetary policy --- -Money --- -332.494 --- Ui1 --- Currency --- Monetary question --- Money, Primitive --- Specie --- Standard of value --- Exchange --- Finance --- Value --- Banks and banking --- Coinage --- Currency question --- Gold --- Silver --- Silver question --- Wealth --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Organisatie van internationaal betalingsverkeer. Bretton woods. --- Econometrie van de internationale handel. Handelsbalans, betalingsbalans. Wissel. --- Economische en monetaire unie van de Europese Gemeenschappen: algemeenheden. --- Europees monetair stelsel. --- Rekeneenheid, gemeenschappelijke munt van de Europese Gemeenschappen. ECU. Euro. --- Wisselkoersen. --- 339.73 Organisatie van internationaal betalingsverkeer. Bretton woods. --- European Monetary System (Organization) --- Organisatie van internationaal betalingsverkeer. Bretton woods --- Econometrie van de internationale handel. Handelsbalans, betalingsbalans. Wissel --- Economische en monetaire unie van de Europese Gemeenschappen: algemeenheden --- Europees monetair stelsel --- Rekeneenheid, gemeenschappelijke munt van de Europese Gemeenschappen. ECU. Euro --- Wisselkoersen --- -Monetary policy --- -European Monetary System (Organization)
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AA / International- internationaal --- EEC / European Union - EU -Europese Unie - Union Européenne - UE --- 334.151.27 --- 333.80 --- 333.450 --- 333.830 --- 333.846.0 --- 333.451.1 --- NBB congres --- Europees monetair stelsel. --- Geld-, bank- en kredietpolitiek. Kapitaalmarkt en -rente: algemeenheden. --- Theorie van het deviezenverkeer. Theorie van de koopkrachtpariteit. --- Theorieën en algemeenheden over geldrente. --- Verband tussen het monetair, bank- en kredietbeleid en de economische ontwikkeling: algemeenheden. --- Wisselkoersen. --- Conferences - Meetings --- European Monetary System --- Exchange Rate Mechanism --- Currency crises --- 332.4566094 --- #SBIB:327.7H231 --- #SBIB:33H13 --- #SBIB:013.IEB --- Europese Unie: sociaal-economisch beleid, landbouw-, milieu-, cultuur- en communicatiebeleid --- Economische politiek --- Foreign exchange rates --- International finance --- European Union --- Monetary policy --- Econometric models --- Congresses. --- Europe --- Congresses --- Foreign exchange rates - Europe - Econometric models - Congresses. --- Monetary policy - Europe - Econometric models - Congresses. --- Monetary management --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Econometric models&delete& --- Rates --- Theorie van het deviezenverkeer. Theorie van de koopkrachtpariteit --- Wisselkoersen --- Geld-, bank- en kredietpolitiek. Kapitaalmarkt en -rente: algemeenheden --- Theorieën en algemeenheden over geldrente --- Verband tussen het monetair, bank- en kredietbeleid en de economische ontwikkeling: algemeenheden --- Europees monetair stelsel --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply
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