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Aging Population and Canadian Public Pension Plans
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ISBN: 1462309607 145527271X 1281387282 1455220132 9786613779953 Year: 1994 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Canadian public pension plans are run on a "pay-as-you-go" basis. As the baby boom ages, contribution rates for the two main plans are projected to rise significantly, from their current level of around 5 percent of eligible earnings to over 13 percent by 2030. An alternative is to set contribution rates at their underlying long-term levels. Such a policy would imply a significant rise in current contribution rates, to 10-10½ percent of eligible earnings, but would allow the system to cope with the retirement of the baby boom generation without recourse to borrowing or significant increases in contribution rates.


Book
Aging, Asset Allocation, and Costs : Evidence for the Pension Fund Industry in Switzerland
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ISBN: 1462303374 1452747105 1282392263 9786613820693 1451910460 Year: 2007 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper focuses on the nexus between pension funds' balance sheet liabilities, reflecting their age profile and payments obligations, and the investment behavior and costs of these funds. The context of the analysis is the stringent regulatory framework and the highly fragmented and heterogeneous pension fund landscape in Switzerland. Detailed data from the Swiss Pension Statistic are analyzed using multivariate OLS-regressions. The evidence shows that a younger age structure and lower short-term benefits payouts are related to a higher share of equities and lower real estate holdings. Legal form, pension plan type, and size are important for administrative costs. The findings support the view that aging may lead to increased risk aversion and thus to a lower engagement of institutional investors in equities.


Book
How Big is the Brain Drain?
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ISBN: 1462352960 1452727031 1283553406 9786613865854 1451898193 Year: 1998 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The brain drain from developing countries has been lamented for many years, but knowledge of the empirical magnitude of the phenomenon is scant owing to the lack of systematic data sources. This paper presents estimates of emigration rates from 61 developing countries to OECD countries for three educational categories constructed using 1990 U.S. Census data, Barro and Lee’s data set on educational attainment, and OECD migration data. Although still tentative in many respects, these estimates reveal a substantial brain drain from the Caribbean, Central America, and some African and Asian countries.


Book
From Generosity to Sustainability : The Austrian Pension System and Options for its Reform
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462375324 1452754349 1281603902 9786613784599 1451890818 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Austria has probably the world’s highest pension expenditures relative to its economic size, largely because of the generosity of its pension system. This paper examines the institutional setup of the Austrian pension system and projects its future development based on current policies. The projection results show a swift financial worsening. With the already high level of contribution rates, pension expenditures, and budget transfers, the results underscore the need for reform. Much of this reform can, however, be achieved by maintaining the structure of the system and adjusting some of its key parameters. The paper outlines options for such a reform.


Book
Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462302416 1452707790 1283512351 1451906463 9786613824806 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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A number of uncertainties about long-term expenditure commitments in industrial countries are examined: (i) the assumptions underlying the projections, (ii) the potential to further reduce non-age-related expenditures, (iii) the implicitly assumed absence of "shocks," and (iv) the potential for raising revenue. This paper concludes that (i) there is scope, but within narrow limits, to reduce non-age-related expenditures; (ii) fiscal policy frameworks tend to understate risks; and (iii) prevailing tax rates leave little room for increasing taxation in the countries facing the strongest aging pressures. In sum, governments will have to adopt a much more ambitious fiscal policy stance to cope with aging populations.


Book
Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability in G-7 Countries
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1462332617 1452763232 1283513935 9786613826381 1451912048 Year: 2007 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Rising longevity, falling fertility rates, and the retirement of the baby boom generation will substantially raise age-related government spending in most advanced and many emerging market countries. This paper assesses the evolution of fiscal sustainability for each of the G-7 countries using two standard primary gap indicators. The estimated fiscal adjustment required to ensure long-run fiscal sustainability is substantial for all G-7 countries. In particular, ensuring fiscal sustainability would require an average improvement in the primary balance of about 4 percentage points of GDP. While the overall adjustment required to achieve long-run fiscal sustainability in G-7 countries is large, there are significant growth benefits to putting public finances on a sustainable footing in the near term versus delayed adjustment.


Book
The Efficiency of Education Expenditure in Portugal
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ISBN: 1462385176 1452770360 1282108891 1451904371 9786613802248 Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper assesses the efficiency of education expenditure in Portugal and delineates a possible agenda for reform. Portugal’s low educational performance has coincided with the highest level of primary and secondary education expenditure to GDP in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), suggesting considerable inefficiency. Empirical results from the application of a nonparametric technique for production frontier estimation (Free Disposable Hull analysis) support this view. Among the reforms that could be considered to raise educational efficiency are the adoption of a goal-oriented management and incentive system; establishment of minimum student/teacher ratios; and an easing of employment and work rules governing public school teachers.


Book
French Public Finances : Modeling Long-Term Prospects and Reform Options
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462314783 1452742235 1281112941 9786613776419 1451890982 Year: 1998 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Over the coming decades, demographic developments will lead to a significant increase in public outlays on pensions and health care, relative to national income. This study extends earlier work by considering the adverse effects of taxation on the determinants of economic growth -- in particular, investment, productivity growth, and labor force participation. Available empirical evidence suggests that these adverse effects could well be sizable, and that conventional estimates of the adverse effects of population aging probably severely underestimate their impact on the public finances and economic performance. The paper uses stochastic simulations to examine the robustness of the results to changes in parameter values. It also provides quantitative simulations of various reform options, including mainly an increase in the effective retirement age and flanking labor market measures.


Book
The Reform of the Pension System in Italy
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ISBN: 1462325874 1452712972 1283564149 1451891458 9786613876591 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Italy’s pension system was reformed in August 1995. The new system has various desirable long-run properties and, overall, it represents an improvement over earlier systems. However, it fails to address two longstanding problems: extremely high contribution rates, and a lack of provisions for dealing with the substantial deterioration in demographic ratios expected over the next 30-40 years.


Book
The Italian Public Pension System : Current Prospects and Reform Options
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462322816 1455289825 1281988812 1455206970 9786613794345 Year: 1995 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Public pension expenditure in Italy has been growing rapidly in the last three decades and is now among the highest in industrialized countries. Despite recent reforms, benefits remain generous by international standards and, unless additional measures are taken, the financial situation of the system will deteriorate in the long term. The paper reviews the current system, its history, and its prospects, and examines through simulations the long-run effects of alternative pension reform options.

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