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Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting : Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh.
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Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Owing to its low-lying topography, dense river network, location, and climate, it is exposed to a range of water and climate-related hazards. Tropical cyclones are among the most severe of these hazards. A key focus for improving disaster preparedness and early warning systems in Bangladesh is improved lead times for tropical cyclone forecasting including the quality and skill of the forecast. At present, the lead time for tropical cyclone forecast used by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), the main government agency responsible for issuing forecasts for tropical cyclone and storm surges, is three days. If lead times of 10 to 15 days with relatively high accuracy are possible, as the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) suggests, why is it not being done in Bangladesh and what can be done to improve the forecast lead time? This question motivated the writing of this paper. Critical to extending the lead times for forecasting is a better understanding of the factors that limit increasing the lead time of current forecasts. This book is arranged as follows: Chapter 1 gives description of the background and rationale for the report; Chapter 2 describes current global operational practices for forecasting tropical cyclones and storm surges, including practices at other national agencies; Chapter 3 assesses the extent to which Bangladesh uses international and regional operational practices and the technical and governance issues that limit their use; and Chapter 4 provides a summary and recommendations.


Book
Striking a Balance : Managing El Nino and La Nina in Lao PDR's Agriculture
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This report's purpose is to help Lao policy makers and stakeholders prepare for future El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It does this by providing information on ENSO's poverty, economic, and agricultural impacts in Lao PDR and outlining ways forward. The report finds that ENSO's impacts vary from region to region and harm Lao PDR's people, economy, and agricultural sector. The country has sought to prepare for climate risks through climate change adaptation and disaster risk management but could do more to prepare specifically for ENSO events. Preparing for ENSO is important because of Lao PDR's exposure to ENSO-related climate shocks, the importance of agriculture in the national economy, the rural population's climate and economic vulnerability, and the lack of research on ENSO in Lao PDR.This report is timely given the lack of research on ENSO in Lao PDR and the high likelihood the country will face another El Nino in the near term. It is difficult to disentangle ENSO's impacts from those of other climate shocks, natural disasters,and economic cycles. This makes it more difficult to design policies and response mechanisms that help mitigate ENSO-related welfare losses and economic damages.This report evaluates El Nino and La Nina's impacts on Lao PDR's agricultural sector particularly crops, livestock, and fisheries-and how these have implications for the economy and society. It then looks at the actions undertaken by the Lao government to mitigate the losses associated with climate risks. This includes actions to prepare and respond to climate change and natural disasters. Next, the report simulates how well certain policy options mitigate ENSO-related GDP and welfare losses. It concludes by recommending actions to enhance Lao PDR's preparedness for future ENSO events.


Periodical
Oceans.
ISSN: 26731924 Year: 2020 Publisher: Basel : MDPI,

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Book
Mainstreaming the Use of Remote Sensing Data and Applications in Operational Contexts
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Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This report presents the activities and outcomes to date of the global initiative on remote sensing for water resources management phase two. The Initiative was conceived to help mainstream the use of beneficial remote sensing applications in operational projects of the Bank, as well as to facilitate the adoption of remote sensing applications in World Bank client countries. By bridging the gap between the supply of remote sensing data and the needs from the Bank's operational projects, Earth Observations can better inform client country agencies by improving monitoring and predictive capabilities and supporting better water-related operations. This report is addressed to technical staff in national water agencies, project leads from development and financing institutions, and water practitioners in general. The goal of the report is to present insights from a range of innovative remote sensing applications developed within the Remote Sensing Initiative, to help address specific water resources management challenges. The results presented here include constraints identified in the adoption of remote sensing, the approaches adopted to make applications functional in different contexts, the project applications themselves, insights on their sustainability, and ways forward. These applications can be replicated, up-scaled, and adapted in many other contexts to address similar challenges. We hope the information contained in this report will help country agencies and project teams in integrating the use of remote sensing in their water resources management practices, as well as in project design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation.


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Striking a Balance : Managing El Nino and La Nina in Cambodia's Agriculture
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The purpose of this report is to help Cambodia's policy makers and stakeholders prepare for future El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It does this by providing information on ENSO's poverty, economic, and agricultural impacts in Cambodia and outlining ways forward. The report finds that ENSO's impacts vary from region to region and harm Cambodia's people, economy, and agricultural sector. The country has made inroads in preparing for climate events like floods and other natural disasters, but more could be done to prepare for ENSO specifically. Being proactive to prepare for ENSO in Cambodia is important because of the country's high exposure to climate shocks, the prominence of the agricultural sector in the national economy, the large rural population and its climate vulnerability.


Book
Mind the Gap : Addressing Critical Technical Issues in Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This technical note is aimed primarily at professionals in national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs), who are trying to improve the quality and relevance of their services to match their societies' growing needs for meteorological and hydrological information. At the same time, the note serves as a useful resource for the experts and teams involved in the activities and projects that tackle various aspects of transforming hydromet services. It provides insight into some of the technical challenges that NMHSs face and suggests approaches to addressing these challenges. The objective of this note is to bring attention to these technical issues to better understand them and prioritize the potential solutions.


Book
The Value of Surface-based Meteorological Observation Data
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Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Weather forecasting generates significant societal benefits, which can be increased by improving accuracy and lead-time through better meteorological monitoring, modeling and computing. Forecasting relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP), which is significantly impacted by the availability of meteorological observations, with space-based observations being the most important. Surface-based observations also contribute substantially to NWP performance, but current availability in Antarctica, Africa, South America, the Pacific and parts of Asia is insufficient. More observations from these regions would improve global NWP and forecasting quality, particularly in the data-sparse regions themselves, but also over the rest of the globe. It is estimated that improvements in the coverage and exchange of surface-based observations to meet the World Meteorological Organization's Global Basic Observing Network (GBON) specification can deliver additional global socioeconomic benefits of over five billion annually. This is a conservative estimate omitting non-financial benefits such as potential lives saved and improvements to well-being, so underestimates the full benefits, particularly for developing countries. Investing in improving surface-based observations in data sparse regions is also highly economically efficient, yielding a global benefit to cost ratio of over twenty-five. Assuming sufficient observational coverage, international data exchange is a very efficient multiplier of the value of observations. However, exchange is currently insufficient across all regions. In view of the growing climate- and weather-related challenges facing humanity and recognizing that climate services similarly rely on meteorological monitoring, surface-based observations should be treated as a critical public good, with public oversight and open exchange within the meteorological and climatological communities.


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Striking a Balance : Managing El Nino and La Nina in Myanmar's Agriculture
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This report's aim is to raise awareness on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events among Myanmar's policy makers and stakeholders. Particularly, the aim is to guide them on preparedness and resiliency building measures. It does this by providing information on ENSO's social, poverty, economic, and agricultural impacts in Myanmar and outlining ways forward. The report finds that ENSO's impacts vary from region to region but tend to exacerbate current climatic trends. Myanmar's government attempted to prepare for, and respond to, the 2016 El Nino, but capacity andorganizational constraints limited its effectiveness. Preparing for ENSO is important because of Myanmar's low resilience to climate shocks, the importance of agriculture for the national economy, the rural and poor populations' climate vulnerability, and the lack of research on ENSO in Myanmar.


Book
Non-Traditional Approaches to Weather Observations in Developing Countries
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Year: 2013 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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In many developing countries, given their poor economic circumstances, weather observing networks are usually installed using funds from international development and aid agencies to enhance the capability of local national hydro-meteorological services (NHMS) and to accomplish humanitarian objectives. This paper discusses non-traditional approaches for establishing sustainable weather observing networks in developing countries, beginning with a brief overview of the importance of data from such networks to a NHMS. Some of the challenges inherent in establishing and maintaining weather and climate observing networks in developing countries are described. This is followed by a discussion of how these challenges may be addressed through the development of weather observing networks based on facilities and capabilities of the local cellular telephone network, such as the open lattice tower pictured in the background of the cover photograph. The paper reviews and summarizes currently available scientific, technical, and commercial literature regarding use of cell phone towers as observing sites. It provides a few illustrative examples of non-traditional technologies well-suited to making cell-tower based observations. The paper concludes with recommendations concerning how one may work with NHMSs in developing countries to improve the sustainability of their observing networks. These recommendations are focused on partnerships, in the sense of true business relationships, involving the NHMSs with, for example, local telephone companies, other in-country utilities, and commercial and private sector instrument manufacturers and data services. For more publications on IFC Sustainability please visit www.ifc.org/sustainabilitypublications.


Book
Tonga : Early Warning Systems Needs Assessment.
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This document provides an overview of needs and gaps in regard to early warning and response capabilities in Tonga. It consolidates information gathered in: (i) August 2014 during an early warning system (EWS) needs assessment to inform the development of the World Bank's Pacific resilience program (PREP); and (ii) August 2016 from discussions with key stakeholders (government bodies and development partners) about EWS activities currently underway or recently completed. Using this information this document identifies the needs for future EWS activities which remain unfunded. A number of activities supporting EWS have been undertaken in Tonga in recent years. This report provides a matrix of activities against the key areas of EWS. By providing a clear outline of the current state of play for EWS in Tonga and identified outstanding needs it is hoped this document will support discussions about future investments in this sector.

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