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Today's value of the private ECU is driven by expectations that a European monetary authority will at some future date declare itself willing to convert the private ECU into the official basket at par. Until then, its value is not limited by any existing institutional arrangements in the European Communities, such as the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System. We address the question of what determines the exchange rate between the private ECU and the official Basket, and what determines ECU interest rates. The Bank for International Settlements sets the ECU overnight interest rate on clearing balances as a weighted and lagged average of the money-market rates in the EC currencies, thereby fixing a point on the ECU term-structure. This exogenous fixing of the ECU interest rate and the expectation of a future fixing of the exchange rate satisfy the fundamental requirements for a obtaining a determinate real value of what is otherwise an undefined private ECU unit of account.
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European currency unit --- Monetary policy --- European currency unit.
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The most important decision now facing the British government is whether or not join the euro. Gordon Brown’s statement of October 1997 sought to put off the decision until after the next general election. But this tactic of “prepare and decide” is already wearing thin. International speculation is mounting about the timing of sterling’s entry. At home, domestic pressure for an earlier decision is building. Andrew Duff argues the case for an urgent decision – one way or the other. He says that the longer the UK delays, the greater the risks, and the harder it may be to go in eventually. The Chancellor’s own tests have been as satisfactorily answered as they are ever going to be; his “unforeseen change of circumstances” has happened. The euro is launched successfully; as an outsider, Britain’s political influence is rapidly declining; the preparedness of British business is stalling in the absence of a clear government decision; public opinion is stagnating; and sterling is threatened with volatility. Moreover, with electoral reform postponed, the prime minister’s modernizing project needs the added impetus of the euro referendum
European currency unit --- Monetary unions --- Monetary policy
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