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The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because adjustments in the real exchange rate between EA countries occur more gradually through inflation differentials. Spillovers from tight credit conditions in each EA country are limited by direct trade channels and small confidence spillovers, but we also consider scenarios where banks in all EU countries tighten credit conditions simultaneously.

Economic forecasting --- Economics --- Forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Econometric models. --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Economywide Country Studies: Europe --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Real exchange rates --- Real interest rates --- Bank credit --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Prices --- Financial services --- Money --- Interest rates --- Credit --- Germany

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The objective of this paper is to present an integrated tool suite for IFRS 9- and CECL-compatible estimation in top-down solvency stress tests. The tool suite serves as an illustration for institutions wishing to include accounting-based approaches for credit risk modeling in top-down stress tests. The tool suite is made available online along with this paper.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Industries: Financial Services --- Accounting and Auditing: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Financial services law & regulation --- Investment & securities --- Banking --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial institutions --- International Financial Reporting Standards --- Stress testing --- Stocks --- Loans --- Distressed assets --- Banks and banking --- State supervision --- Financial risk management --- United States

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Investment across the euro area remains below its pre-crisis level. Its performance has been weaker than in most previous recessions and financial crises. This paper shows that a part of this weakness can be explained by output dynamics, particularly before the European sovereign debt crisis. The rest is explained by a high cost of capital, financial constraints, corporate leverage, and uncertainty. There is a considerable cross country heterogeneity in terms of both investment dymanics and its determinants. Based on the findings of this paper, investment is expected to pick up as the recovery strengthens and uncertainty declines, but persistent financial fragmentation and high corporate leverage in some countries will likely continue to weigh on investment.

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This paper presents the framework underlying the Global Bank Stress Test (GST) and applies it to recent data and global scenarios to illustrate the usefulness of the framework in assessing the potential impact of global shocks on banks around the world. The results of this latest update of the GST continue to point to relatively lower levels of resilience of banks in emerging market economies (EMs) than in advanced economies (AEs).

Financial crises. --- Asset requirements --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks and banking --- Banks --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Capital adequacy requirements --- Commercial banks --- Communicable diseases --- Covid-19 --- Depository Institutions --- Diseases: Contagious --- Economics --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial Crises --- Financial crises --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial institutions --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Financial Risk Management --- Financial risk management --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial services industry --- Financial services law & regulation --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Health Behavior --- Health --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Information technology industries --- International agencies --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Public finance & taxation --- Spendings tax --- Stress testing --- Taxation --- Taxes --- Value-added tax