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Book
Brazil Within Brazil : Testing the Poverty Map Methodology in Minas Gerais
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

The small-area estimation technique developed for producing poverty maps has been applied in a large number of developing countries. Opportunities to formally test the validity of this approach remain rare due to lack of appropriately detailed data. This paper compares a set of predicted welfare estimates based on this methodology against their true values, in a setting where these true values are known. A recent study draws on Monte Carlo evidence to warn that the small-area estimation methodology could significantly over-state the precision of local-level estimates of poverty, if underlying assumptions of spatial homogeneity do not hold. Despite these concerns, the findings in this paper for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, indicate that the small-area estimation approach is able to produce estimates of welfare that line up quite closely to their true values. Although the setting considered here would seem, a priori, unlikely to meet the homogeneity conditions that have been argued to be essential for the method, confidence intervals for the poverty estimates also appear to be appropriate. However, this latter conclusion holds only after carefully controlling for community-level factors that are correlated with household level welfare.


Book
Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder : Accounting for Differences in Household Income Distributions across Countries
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Bourguignon, Ferreira, and Leite develop a microeconometric method to account for differences across distributions of household income. Going beyond the determination of earnings in labor markets, they also estimate statistical models for occupational choice and for conditional distributions of education, fertility, and nonlabor incomes. The authors import combinations of estimated parameters from these models to simulate counterfactual income distributions. This allows them to decompose differences between functionals of two income distributions (such as inequality or poverty measures) into shares because of differences in the structure of labor market returns (price effects), differences in the occupational structure, and differences in the underlying distribution of assets (endowment effects). The authors apply the method to the differences between the Brazilian income distribution and those of Mexico and the United States, and find that most of Brazil's excess income inequality is due to underlying inequalities in the distribution of two key endowments: access to education and to sources of nonlabor income, mainly pensions. This paper is a product of the Research Advisory Staff. The authors may be contacted at fbourguignon@worldbank.org, fferreira@econ.puc-rio.br or phil@econ.puc-rio.br.


Book
How do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations : Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.


Book
How do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations : Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.


Book
Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder : Accounting for Differences in Household Income Distributions across Countries
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

Bourguignon, Ferreira, and Leite develop a microeconometric method to account for differences across distributions of household income. Going beyond the determination of earnings in labor markets, they also estimate statistical models for occupational choice and for conditional distributions of education, fertility, and nonlabor incomes. The authors import combinations of estimated parameters from these models to simulate counterfactual income distributions. This allows them to decompose differences between functionals of two income distributions (such as inequality or poverty measures) into shares because of differences in the structure of labor market returns (price effects), differences in the occupational structure, and differences in the underlying distribution of assets (endowment effects). The authors apply the method to the differences between the Brazilian income distribution and those of Mexico and the United States, and find that most of Brazil's excess income inequality is due to underlying inequalities in the distribution of two key endowments: access to education and to sources of nonlabor income, mainly pensions. This paper is a product of the Research Advisory Staff. The authors may be contacted at fbourguignon@worldbank.org, fferreira@econ.puc-rio.br or phil@econ.puc-rio.br.


Book
Benefits and Costs of Social Pensions in Sub-Saharan Africa
Authors: ---
Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The lack of efficient social security systems, the presence of large informal sectors, and the pace at which the population is aging in some Sub-Saharan African countries are red flags warning of a potential long-term problem: that is, the inability of countries to provide old-age income security to all. Many adults in the region have difficulties accessing health care and other essential services, increasing their vulnerability and their likelihood of becoming impoverished as they age. Since the coverage of contribution-based pension schemes has remained low for decades, direct cash grants (henceforth, universal social pensions) are increasingly proposed as a way to address the coverage gap and to fight poverty among the elderly. This paper explores the role of universal social pensions in 12 Sub-Saharan African countries, showing that they may be part of the answer to the coverage gap in pensions and may be important from a human rights lens. However, they have limited impact on poverty because a significant share of the elderly population is found not to fall into the poorest and most vulnerable segments of society. Universal social pensions can also be quite costly, difficult to sustain in low-income settings, and less cost-effective at fighting poverty compared to poverty-targeted cash transfer programs. Implementation errors are quite prevalent in universal social pension schemes, contradicting the apparent simplicity of identifying program beneficiaries. The report's main findings are that a discussion of poverty targeted programs vis-a-vis universal programs is less relevant for policymakers than how to design and implement a policy or a mix of coordinated and harmonized policies under a robust system that allows governments to reach their main objectives of meeting the basic needs of their most vulnerable citizens.


Book
Brazil Within Brazil : Testing the Poverty Map Methodology in Minas Gerais
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

The small-area estimation technique developed for producing poverty maps has been applied in a large number of developing countries. Opportunities to formally test the validity of this approach remain rare due to lack of appropriately detailed data. This paper compares a set of predicted welfare estimates based on this methodology against their true values, in a setting where these true values are known. A recent study draws on Monte Carlo evidence to warn that the small-area estimation methodology could significantly over-state the precision of local-level estimates of poverty, if underlying assumptions of spatial homogeneity do not hold. Despite these concerns, the findings in this paper for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, indicate that the small-area estimation approach is able to produce estimates of welfare that line up quite closely to their true values. Although the setting considered here would seem, a priori, unlikely to meet the homogeneity conditions that have been argued to be essential for the method, confidence intervals for the poverty estimates also appear to be appropriate. However, this latter conclusion holds only after carefully controlling for community-level factors that are correlated with household level welfare.


Book
Poverty Reduction Without Economic Growth ? : Explaining Brazil's Poverty Dynamics, 1985-2004
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2007 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Brazil's slow pace of poverty reduction over the last two decades reflects both low growth and a low growth elasticity of poverty reduction. Using GDP data disaggregated by state and sector for a twenty-year period, this paper finds considerable variation in the poverty-reducing effectiveness of growth-across sectors, across space, and over time. Growth in the services sector was substantially more poverty-reducing than was growth in either agriculture or industry. Growth in industry had very different effects on poverty across different states and its impact varied with initial conditions related to human development and worker empowerment. The determinants of poverty reduction changed around 1994: positive growth rates and a greater (absolute) elasticity with respect to agricultural growth contributed to faster poverty reduction. But because there was so little of it, economic growth played a relatively small role in accounting for Brazil's poverty reduction between 1985 and 2004. The taming of hyperinflation (in 1994) and substantial expansions in social security and social assistance transfers, beginning in 1988, accounted for a larger share of the overall reduction in poverty.


Book
Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare : Evidence from Brazil in 2008
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Food price inflation in Brazil in the twelve months to June 2008 was 18 percent, while overall inflation was 5.3 percent. This paper uses spatially disaggregated monthly data on consumer prices and two different household surveys to estimate the welfare consequences of these food price increases, and their distribution across households. Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a predominantly wage-earning agricultural labor force, our estimates include general equilibrium effects on market and transfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates of changes in consumer surplus. While the expenditure (or consumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedly regressive everywhere, the market income effect was positive and progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because of this effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protection afforded by increases in two large social assistance benefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazil was U-shaped, with the middle-income groups suffering larger proportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless, since Brazil is 80 percent urban, higher food prices still led to a greater incidence and depth of poverty at the national level.


Book
Trade Liberalization, Employment Flows, and Wage Inequality in Brazil
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2007 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Using nationally representative, economywide data, this paper investigates the relative importance of trade-mandated effects on industry wage premia; industry and economywide skill premia; and employment flows in accounting for changes in the wage distribution in Brazil during the 1988-95 trade liberalization. Unlike in other Latin American countries, trade liberalization appears to have made a significant contribution toward a reduction in wage inequality. These effects have not occurred through changes in industry-specific (wage or skill) premia. Instead, they appear to have been channeled through substantial employment flows across sectors and formality categories. Changes in the economywide skill premium are also important.

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