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A Model of the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic During a Hurricane in Virginia
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation

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Abstract

As of August 24, 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had resulted in the deaths of approximately 2,500 Virginians. The 2020 hurricane season began June 1 and is considered to be extremely active. The threat of the pandemic increases the complexity of risk management decisions during the hurricane season. In this report, the authors study the implications that a hurricane during the COVID-19 pandemic would have for the Commonwealth of Virginia. This analysis should help inform advance planning for the hurricane season in general and could be used in response to a specific storm with an estimated track through Virginia. The authors focus on the combined impacts of COVID-19 and a hurricane on morbidity and mortality; they do not examine other effects, such as effects on infrastructure, social networks, and the economy.

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Risk-Informed Analysis of Transportation Worker Identification Credential Reader Requirements

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A 2016 U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) regulation, "Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC)-Reader Requirements," requires certain maritime facilities determined to be of high risk to use electronic and biometric access control programs in the facilities' secure areas. The final version of this rule, known as the final reader rule, has been delayed (from 2020) until May 8, 2023, for three categories of facilities that handle certain dangerous cargoes (CDCs) in bulk. The USCG asked the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center to reestimate the population of such regulated facilities that could be subject to the final reader rule delay, develop an objective risk assessment model for these facilities, and conduct a cost-benefit analysis of the regulation. This report describes the researchers' analytical efforts to address these three research areas. Because there is no database of Maritime Transportation Security Act-regulated facilities that has all the requisite information about CDCs that facilities handle in bulk, the researchers resorted to other data sources, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's databases, an online survey, and interviews, to estimate the facility population. For the facility risk model, they used the modeling approach for assessing potential consequence included in the risk engine of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency's Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) program, harmonizing the TWIC and CFATS programs in consequence assessment. Because there was no credible estimate for the probability of a transportation security incident, the researchers used a break-even analysis to assess whether the final reader rule is cost-effective.

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