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Rollover risk imposes market discipline on banks’ risk-taking behavior but it can be socially costly. I present a two-sided model in which a bank simultaneously lends to a firm and borrows from the short-term funding market. When the bank is capital constrained, uncertainty in asset quality and rollover risk create a negative externality that spills over to the real economy by ex ante credit contraction. Macroprudential and monetary policies can be used to reduce the social cost of market discipline and improve efficiency.
Uncertainty--Econometric models. --- Financial risk management--Econometric models. --- Capital movements--Econometric models. --- Accounting --- Banks and Banking --- Investments: Stocks --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Economics of Contract: Theory --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- International Financial Markets --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banking --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Investment & securities --- Financial services law & regulation --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Financial statements --- Stocks --- Liquidity requirements --- Asset valuation --- Asset and liability management --- Financial institutions --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Credit --- Money --- Banks and banking --- Finance, Public --- State supervision --- Asset-liability management --- United Kingdom --- Financial risk management.
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I study whether firms' reliance on intangible assets is an important determinant of financing constraints. I construct new measures of firm-level physical and intangible assets using accounting information on U.S. public firms. I find that firms with a higher share of intangible assets in total assets start smaller, grow faster, and have higher Tobin’s q. Asset tangibility predicts firm dynamics and Tobin’s q up to 30 years but has diminishing predicative power. I develop a model of endogenous financial constraints in which firm size and value are limited by the enforceability of financial contracts. Asset tangibility matters because physical and intangible assets differ in their residual value when the contract is repudiated. This mechanism is qualitatively important to explain stylized facts of firm dynamics and Tobin’s q.
Economic development. --- International finance. --- International monetary system --- International money --- Finance --- International economic relations --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: Stocks --- Economic Theory --- Demography --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Firm Behavior --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- International Financial Markets --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Financial Economics --- Population & demography --- Investment & securities --- Technology --- general issues --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Aging --- Stocks --- Asset valuation --- Financial frictions --- Population and demographics --- Asset and liability management --- Financial institutions --- Economic theory --- Population aging --- Asset-liability management --- Economic forecasting --- United States --- General issues
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IMF Research Perspectives Spring-Summer 2020.
Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Automatic control engineering --- Automation --- Diffusion Processes --- Economics of Gender --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial inclusion --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial services industry --- Financial services --- Gender studies --- Income distribution --- Income economics --- Income inequality --- Labor economics --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Women & girls --- Women --- Women's Studies --- United States
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We propose a tax-adjusted q model with physical and intangible assets and estimate it with a self-collected comprehensive database of intangible assets. The presence of intangibles changes the accounting and economic measures of q. We show that when tax changes are temporary, the q model can be estimated by adjusting for the firm’s intangible stock and intangible intensity. We estimate our model using temporary investment tax incentive policies in the United States in the early 2000s. When the q-model accounts for intangible assets, the estimated investment elasticity to tax incentives is generally larger than otherwise. It is also larger for intangible-intensive firms, and increases with firm size.
Investment tax credit --- Investments --- Intangible property --- Incorporeal property --- Intangible assets --- Intangibles --- Property --- Capital investments --- Depreciation allowances --- Tax credits --- Econometric models. --- Taxation. --- Law and legislation --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Taxation --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Capital Budgeting --- Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- International Financial Markets --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Investment & securities --- Tax incentives --- Asset valuation --- Investment incentives --- Depreciation --- Stocks --- Taxes --- Asset and liability management --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Asset-liability management --- Saving and investment --- United States
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We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.
Economic forecasting. --- Economic indicators. --- Credit. --- Borrowing --- Finance --- Money --- Loans --- Business indicators --- Economic indicators --- Indicators, Business --- Indicators, Economic --- Leading indicators --- Economic history --- Quality of life --- Economic forecasting --- Index numbers (Economics) --- Social indicators --- Economics --- Forecasting --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Real Estate --- Investments: Bonds --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Property & real estate --- Monetary economics --- Investment & securities --- Asset prices --- Housing prices --- Yield curve --- Credit --- Government consumption --- Prices --- Bond yields --- Financial institutions --- National accounts --- Housing --- Interest rates --- Consumption --- Bonds --- United States
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Fixed investment was the most important contributing factor to the boom-bust cycle in Cyprus over the last decade. Investment boomed during a credit boom in mid-2000s, during which the corporate sector borrowed heavily. Investment collapsed after 2008 when the credit boom ended. Investment and corporate balance sheets further deteriorated during the Cypriot banking crisis over 2012–2014. Using firm-level investment and balance sheet data, we find that corporate indebtedness is negatively associated with investment both before and after the banking crisis, although the effect is weaker after the Cypriot banking crisis, possibly due to the reduced role of credit in driving post-crisis investment and growth. Our results suggest the need to repair corporate balance sheets to support sustainable invesetment.
Public investments. --- Financial statements. --- Banks and banking. --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Balance sheets --- Corporate financial statements --- Earnings statements --- Financial reports --- Income statements --- Operating statements --- Profit and loss statements --- Statements, Financial --- Accounting --- Bookkeeping --- Business records --- Corporation reports --- Government investments --- Investments, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Investments --- Capital budget --- Economic development projects --- Investment of public funds --- Public investments --- Financial statements --- Banks and banking --- E-books --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Capital Budgeting --- Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Financial Crises --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Monetary economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Labour --- income economics --- Currencies --- Wages --- Financial crises --- Banking crises --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Finance, Public --- Cyprus --- Income economics
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How much do firms benefit from foreign R&D and through what channel? We construct a global network of corporate innovation using more than 1.5 million patents granted to firms in OECD countries. We test the “international technology sourcing” hypothesis that foreign innovation activities tap into foreign R&D and improve home productivity through knowledge spillovers. We find that firms with stronger inventor presence in technology frontier countries benefit disproportionately more from their R&D. The strength of knowledge spillovers depends on the direction of technology sourcing. Knowledge externality is larger for firms in technology frontier countries than for firms in non-frontier countries.
Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Externalities --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Technology --- general issues --- Investment & securities --- Spillovers --- Total factor productivity --- Stocks --- Productivity --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial institutions --- International finance --- Industrial productivity --- United States --- General issues
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We explore the differential effects of lender-based macroprudential policies on new mortgage borrowing for households of different income using a comprehensive dataset that links macroprudential policy actions with household survey data for European Union countries. The main results suggest that higher-income households on average experience a larger reduction in mortgage loan size than lower-income households when regulation targeting total lenders’ assets tightens. In contrast, lower-income households on average experience a larger reduction in mortgage loan size than higher-income households when regulation targeting lenders’ capital requirements tightens. We also provide evidence of the different channels through which the differential effects operate.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Finance --- Macroprudential policy --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Income --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Loans --- Macroprudential policy instruments --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic policy --- Ireland
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Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities. Using a new monthly panel on social unrest in 130 countries, we find a positive cross-sectional relationship between social unrest and epidemics. But the relationship reverses in the short run, implying that the mitigating effect dominates in the short run. Recent trends in social unrest immediately before and after the COVID-19 outbreak are consistent with this historic evidence. It is reasonable to expect that, as the pandemic fades, unrest may reemerge in locations where it previously existed.
Macroeconomics --- Diseases: Contagious --- Natural Disasters --- Economic History: Government, War, Law, and Regulation: General, International, or Comparative --- Health Behavior --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Health: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Natural disasters --- Health economics --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Communicable diseases --- Personal income --- Income --- United States
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We provide broad-based evidence of a firm size premium of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis. The TFP growth of smaller firms was more adversely affected and diverged from their larger counterparts after the crisis. The impact was progressively larger for medium, small, and micro firms relative to large firms. It was also disproportionally larger for firms with limited credit market access. Moreover, smaller firms were less likely to have access to safer banks: those that were better capitalized banks and with a presence in the credit default swap market. Horseraces suggest that firm size may be a more important and robust vulnerability indicator than balance sheet characteristics. Our results imply that the tightening of credit market conditions during the crisis, coupled with limited credit market access especially among micro, small, and medium firms, may have contributed to the large and persistent drop in aggregate TFP.
Accounting --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Production, Pricing, and Market Structure --- Size Distribution of Firms --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Financial Crises --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Total factor productivity --- Credit default swap --- Credit --- Financial statements --- Financial crises --- Industrial productivity --- Finance, Public --- Germany
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