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Uncertainty and Investment : The Financial Intermediary Balance Sheet Channel
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ISBN: 1475594496 1475594038 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Rollover risk imposes market discipline on banks’ risk-taking behavior but it can be socially costly. I present a two-sided model in which a bank simultaneously lends to a firm and borrows from the short-term funding market. When the bank is capital constrained, uncertainty in asset quality and rollover risk create a negative externality that spills over to the real economy by ex ante credit contraction. Macroprudential and monetary policies can be used to reduce the social cost of market discipline and improve efficiency.


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Financial Constraints, Intangible Assets, and Firm Dynamics : Theory and Evidence
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ISBN: 1484394119 1484393759 1484394151 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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I study whether firms' reliance on intangible assets is an important determinant of financing constraints. I construct new measures of firm-level physical and intangible assets using accounting information on U.S. public firms. I find that firms with a higher share of intangible assets in total assets start smaller, grow faster, and have higher Tobin’s q. Asset tangibility predicts firm dynamics and Tobin’s q up to 30 years but has diminishing predicative power. I develop a model of endogenous financial constraints in which firm size and value are limited by the enforceability of financial contracts. Asset tangibility matters because physical and intangible assets differ in their residual value when the contract is repudiated. This mechanism is qualitatively important to explain stylized facts of firm dynamics and Tobin’s q.


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IMF Research Perspectives : Spring-Summer 2020
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ISBN: 1513551183 1513551310 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,


Book
The Tax-adjusted Q Model with Intangible Assets : Theory and Evidence from Temporary Investment Tax Incentives
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1498304427 1498347835 1498308503 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We propose a tax-adjusted q model with physical and intangible assets and estimate it with a self-collected comprehensive database of intangible assets. The presence of intangibles changes the accounting and economic measures of q. We show that when tax changes are temporary, the q model can be estimated by adjusting for the firm’s intangible stock and intangible intensity. We estimate our model using temporary investment tax incentive policies in the United States in the early 2000s. When the q-model accounts for intangible assets, the estimated investment elasticity to tax incentives is generally larger than otherwise. It is also larger for intangible-intensive firms, and increases with firm size.


Book
Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1475567707 1475567685 Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.


Book
Does Balance Sheet Strength Drive the Investment Cycle? Evidence from Pre- and Post-Crisis Cyprus.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1475568207 9781475568202 1475568185 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund

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Fixed investment was the most important contributing factor to the boom-bust cycle in Cyprus over the last decade. Investment boomed during a credit boom in mid-2000s, during which the corporate sector borrowed heavily. Investment collapsed after 2008 when the credit boom ended. Investment and corporate balance sheets further deteriorated during the Cypriot banking crisis over 2012–2014. Using firm-level investment and balance sheet data, we find that corporate indebtedness is negatively associated with investment both before and after the banking crisis, although the effect is weaker after the Cypriot banking crisis, possibly due to the reduced role of credit in driving post-crisis investment and growth. Our results suggest the need to repair corporate balance sheets to support sustainable invesetment.

Keywords

Public investments. --- Financial statements. --- Banks and banking. --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Balance sheets --- Corporate financial statements --- Earnings statements --- Financial reports --- Income statements --- Operating statements --- Profit and loss statements --- Statements, Financial --- Accounting --- Bookkeeping --- Business records --- Corporation reports --- Government investments --- Investments, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Investments --- Capital budget --- Economic development projects --- Investment of public funds --- Public investments --- Financial statements --- Banks and banking --- E-books --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Capital Budgeting --- Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Financial Crises --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Monetary economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Labour --- income economics --- Currencies --- Wages --- Financial crises --- Banking crises --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Finance, Public --- Cyprus --- Income economics


Book
International Technology Sourcing and Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from OECD Countries
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1484347706 1484347684 9781484347683 9781484347706 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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How much do firms benefit from foreign R&D and through what channel? We construct a global network of corporate innovation using more than 1.5 million patents granted to firms in OECD countries. We test the “international technology sourcing” hypothesis that foreign innovation activities tap into foreign R&D and improve home productivity through knowledge spillovers. We find that firms with stronger inventor presence in technology frontier countries benefit disproportionately more from their R&D. The strength of knowledge spillovers depends on the direction of technology sourcing. Knowledge externality is larger for firms in technology frontier countries than for firms in non-frontier countries.


Book
Differential Effects of Macroprudential Policy
Authors: ---
Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We explore the differential effects of lender-based macroprudential policies on new mortgage borrowing for households of different income using a comprehensive dataset that links macroprudential policy actions with household survey data for European Union countries. The main results suggest that higher-income households on average experience a larger reduction in mortgage loan size than lower-income households when regulation targeting total lenders’ assets tightens. In contrast, lower-income households on average experience a larger reduction in mortgage loan size than higher-income households when regulation targeting lenders’ capital requirements tightens. We also provide evidence of the different channels through which the differential effects operate.


Book
Social Repercussions of Pandemics
Authors: ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities. Using a new monthly panel on social unrest in 130 countries, we find a positive cross-sectional relationship between social unrest and epidemics. But the relationship reverses in the short run, implying that the mitigating effect dominates in the short run. Recent trends in social unrest immediately before and after the COVID-19 outbreak are consistent with this historic evidence. It is reasonable to expect that, as the pandemic fades, unrest may reemerge in locations where it previously existed.


Book
Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown
Authors: ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We provide broad-based evidence of a firm size premium of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis. The TFP growth of smaller firms was more adversely affected and diverged from their larger counterparts after the crisis. The impact was progressively larger for medium, small, and micro firms relative to large firms. It was also disproportionally larger for firms with limited credit market access. Moreover, smaller firms were less likely to have access to safer banks: those that were better capitalized banks and with a presence in the credit default swap market. Horseraces suggest that firm size may be a more important and robust vulnerability indicator than balance sheet characteristics. Our results imply that the tightening of credit market conditions during the crisis, coupled with limited credit market access especially among micro, small, and medium firms, may have contributed to the large and persistent drop in aggregate TFP.

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