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Book
Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

After moving slowly downward for the better part of four decades, central bank gold holdings have risen since the Global Financial Crisis. We identify 14 “active diversifiers,” defined as countries that purchased gold and raised its share in total reserves by at least 5 percentage points over the last two decades. In contrast to the diversification of foreign currency reserves, which has been undertaken by advanced and developing country central banks alike, active diversifiers into gold are exclusively emerging markets. We document two sets of factors contributing to this trend. First, gold appeals to central bank reserve managers as a safe haven in periods of economic, financial and geopolitical volatility, when the return on alternative financial assets is low. Second, the imposition of financial sanctions by the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and Japan, the main reserve-issuing economies, is associated with an increase in the share of central bank reserves held in the form of gold. There is some evidence that multilateral sanctions imposed by these, and other countries have a larger impact than unilateral sanctions on the share of reserves held in gold, since the latter leave scope for shifting reserves into the currencies of other non-sanctioning countries.


Book
Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 9798400230226 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

After moving slowly downward for the better part of four decades, central bank gold holdings have risen since the Global Financial Crisis. We identify 14 “active diversifiers,” defined as countries that purchased gold and raised its share in total reserves by at least 5 percentage points over the last two decades. In contrast to the diversification of foreign currency reserves, which has been undertaken by advanced and developing country central banks alike, active diversifiers into gold are exclusively emerging markets. We document two sets of factors contributing to this trend. First, gold appeals to central bank reserve managers as a safe haven in periods of economic, financial and geopolitical volatility, when the return on alternative financial assets is low. Second, the imposition of financial sanctions by the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and Japan, the main reserve-issuing economies, is associated with an increase in the share of central bank reserves held in the form of gold. There is some evidence that multilateral sanctions imposed by these, and other countries have a larger impact than unilateral sanctions on the share of reserves held in gold, since the latter leave scope for shifting reserves into the currencies of other non-sanctioning countries.


Book
Costa Rica : Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, First Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Arrangement, Request for Modification of Reform Measure Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Monetary Policy Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report.
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses Costa Rica’s Fourth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), First Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Arrangement, Request for Modification of Reform Measure under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), and Monetary Policy Consultation. Program performance under both the EFF and the RSF remains strong. All performance criteria and indicative targets have been met for the fourth review of the EFF. Inflation exceeded the outer band of the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause in December 2022, triggering a Board consultation, but has been on a strong downward trend, returning to the central bank’s tolerance band in April. Implementation of most structural reforms is on track. Progress on implementing the Public Employment Bill has been slower than anticipated but the single wage spine has been put in place for one quarter of executive branch positions, meeting the prior action for this review.


Book
Costa Rica : Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, First Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Arrangement, Request for Modification of Reform Measure Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Monetary Policy Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report.
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ISBN: 9798400247248 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses Costa Rica’s Fourth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), First Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Arrangement, Request for Modification of Reform Measure under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), and Monetary Policy Consultation. Program performance under both the EFF and the RSF remains strong. All performance criteria and indicative targets have been met for the fourth review of the EFF. Inflation exceeded the outer band of the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause in December 2022, triggering a Board consultation, but has been on a strong downward trend, returning to the central bank’s tolerance band in April. Implementation of most structural reforms is on track. Progress on implementing the Public Employment Bill has been slower than anticipated but the single wage spine has been put in place for one quarter of executive branch positions, meeting the prior action for this review.


Book
Malawi : First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program with Executive Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi.
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ISBN: 9798400251009 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents Malawi’s First Review under the Staff-Monitored Program with Executive Board (PMB) Involvement. In light of a series of shocks, program performance was mixed. The authorities are taking corrective actions to establish a record of accomplishment of policy implementation, possibly paving the way to an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Cyclone Freddy has weighed on the outlook for 2023 and led to a lower growth forecast and a higher inflation forecast. Key downside risks include slippages in program implementation, delays in the ongoing external debt restructuring process, and further external shocks. Performance on Quantitative Targets (QTs), Indicative Targets (ITs), and Structural Benchmarks was mixed, with four out of six end-December and continuous QTs and one out of three end-December ITs not met. Four out of seven Structural Benchmarks were not met. The authorities have committed to strong corrective actions. The authorities are taking corrective actions necessary to overcome mixed performance and implementation challenges with the PMB to date, allowing them to demonstrate their commitment and capacity to implement the agreed macroeconomic adjustment and reforms to build the policy record of accomplishment needed to support their request for an ECF arrangement. .


Book
Central Banks as Dollar Lenders of Last Resort: Implications for Regulation and Reserve Holdings
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper explores how non-U.S. central banks behave when firms in their economies engage in currency mismatch, borrowing more heavily in dollars than justified by their operating exposures. We begin by documenting that, in a panel of 53 countries, central bank holdings of dollar reserves are significantly correlated with the dollar-denominated bank borrowing of their non-financial corporate sectors, controlling for a number of known covariates of reserve accumulation. We then build a model in which the central bank can deal with private-sector mismatch, and the associated risk of a domestic financial crisis, in two ways: (i) by imposing ex ante financial regulations such as bank capital requirements; or (ii) by building a stockpile of dollar reserves that allow it to serve as an ex post dollar lender of last resort. The model highlights a novel externality: individual central banks may tend to over-accumulate dollar reserves, relative to what a global planner would choose. This is because individual central banks do not internalize that their hoarding of reserves exacerbates a global scarcity of dollar-denominated safe assets, which lowers dollar interest rates and encourages firms to increase the currency mismatch of their liabilities. Relative to the decentralized outcome, a global planner may prefer stricter financial regulation (e.g., higher bank capital requirements) and reduced holdings of dollar reserves.


Book
Uganda : Central Bank Transparency Code Review.
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper on Uganda discusses Central Bank Transparency Code Review. The Bank of Uganda (BOU) is implementing transparency practices that are broadly aligned with the good practices for central banks. The BOU continues to improve communication of its monetary policy framework in a transparent manner, but there is room to enhance transparency by disclosing policy deliberations. The BOU has improved macroprudential policies and the analytical framework aimed at mitigating systemic risks, but decisions leading to macroprudential actions are not explained. The anti-corruption legal framework in Uganda applies to the BOU, however no details are disclosed in the public domain as to how it is applied and enforced with respect to the BOU. The BOU should consider compiling and developing a policy on confidentiality that includes the reasons underlying the choices it has made on disclosure or nondisclosure. The mission found that BOU’s transparency practices largely conform to various dimensions of transparency as information is disseminated through several channels.


Book
Panama : Selected Issues.
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper presents the main features and weaknesses of the current Panamanian tax system and provides an international comparison of its performance. Panama’s macroeconomic performance has been notably robust. Panama’s macroeconomic performance has been notably robust, but Panama’s tax collection has been historically low. A tax system without adequate revenues led to chronic fiscal deficits and a lack of resources to invest in human capital (education and health) and promote social inclusion policies. In addition, the tax system is notably regressive, and several rules are very inefficient and distortive contradicting the overall policy objective of the country to attract investment. Taxation of the business sector is very complex. On the other hand, the system is very generous regarding benefits. Overall, the desirable reform direction is clear: A reduction in tax incentives, following their analysis, as well as stronger anti-abuse provisions, and revenues from an international minimum tax can finance reductions in the inefficient parts of the tax system, such as the multiple business taxes and the strict loss carry forward.


Book
Panama : Selected Issues.
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ISBN: 9798400237300 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This Selected Issues paper presents the main features and weaknesses of the current Panamanian tax system and provides an international comparison of its performance. Panama’s macroeconomic performance has been notably robust. Panama’s macroeconomic performance has been notably robust, but Panama’s tax collection has been historically low. A tax system without adequate revenues led to chronic fiscal deficits and a lack of resources to invest in human capital (education and health) and promote social inclusion policies. In addition, the tax system is notably regressive, and several rules are very inefficient and distortive contradicting the overall policy objective of the country to attract investment. Taxation of the business sector is very complex. On the other hand, the system is very generous regarding benefits. Overall, the desirable reform direction is clear: A reduction in tax incentives, following their analysis, as well as stronger anti-abuse provisions, and revenues from an international minimum tax can finance reductions in the inefficient parts of the tax system, such as the multiple business taxes and the strict loss carry forward.


Book
Central Banks as Dollar Lenders of Last Resort: Implications for Regulation and Reserve Holdings
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 9798400232718 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper explores how non-U.S. central banks behave when firms in their economies engage in currency mismatch, borrowing more heavily in dollars than justified by their operating exposures. We begin by documenting that, in a panel of 53 countries, central bank holdings of dollar reserves are significantly correlated with the dollar-denominated bank borrowing of their non-financial corporate sectors, controlling for a number of known covariates of reserve accumulation. We then build a model in which the central bank can deal with private-sector mismatch, and the associated risk of a domestic financial crisis, in two ways: (i) by imposing ex ante financial regulations such as bank capital requirements; or (ii) by building a stockpile of dollar reserves that allow it to serve as an ex post dollar lender of last resort. The model highlights a novel externality: individual central banks may tend to over-accumulate dollar reserves, relative to what a global planner would choose. This is because individual central banks do not internalize that their hoarding of reserves exacerbates a global scarcity of dollar-denominated safe assets, which lowers dollar interest rates and encourages firms to increase the currency mismatch of their liabilities. Relative to the decentralized outcome, a global planner may prefer stricter financial regulation (e.g., higher bank capital requirements) and reduced holdings of dollar reserves.

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