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Book
Early Childhood Development Services in Armenia : Diagnostic Report.
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This report assesses the key constraints on the supply of (quantity and quality) and demand for early childhood development (ECD) services for pregnant women and children under the age of five in Armenia and puts forth recommendations on how to improve access to ECD services for poor and socially vulnerable families. The government of the Republic of Armenia, with support from the World Bank and other development partners, is currently expanding the existing social work system in Armenia to more actively link vulnerable families to ECD services. A specific objective of the report is to inform the design of this expansion. The World Bank team carried out a survey of ECD services providers in the four marzes of Ararat, Gegharkunik, Lori and Yerevan. The report draws heavily on the findings of this facility survey, the Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2017,3 the Social Snapshot and Poverty in Armenia, the Armenia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2015-16 (NSS 2017), and on other ECD-related studies conducted in Armenia. The report's assessment and recommendations are also grounded in global evidence on ECD. This evidence highlights the importance to human development of receiving nurturing care in the early years. There is robust evidence that early experiences shape the brain's structure and functioning, and that deprivations during the prenatal period and early childhood can have substantial negative impacts on later cognitive ability and educational achievement. Early childhood development services that promote nurturing care during this period are cost effective, and programs for disadvantaged children during early childhood have a higher rate of return than programs introduced later in life. Services with proven benefits to ECD include antenatal care, promotion of child nutrition and micronutrient supplementation, parenting education, and preschool education. Global evidence points to specific interventions in each area that have proven impact.


Book
Accounting for Regional Differences in Mother and Child Health : Bangladesh, West Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Using recent Demographic Health Survey data for Bangladesh and the neighboring Indian states of Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, this paper reexamines the determinants of child wasting and maternal anemia. The findings bear out the importance of commonly cited factors, such as mother's education and age, household wealth, and child birth order. However, the findings also highlight significant and large regional differences between Indian states and Bangladeshi provinces. For example, the results for Jharkhand state in India and Barisal province in Bangladesh indicate that controlling for those commonly cited determinants, the poorest, least-educated mothers and their children in Barisal have better health outcomes than the wealthiest, best-educated counterparts in Jharkhand. Mapping analysis of the spatial variations in child wasting and maternal anemia shows clear patterns of clustering over large areas that frequently overlap state/province and national boundaries. Possible sources of these striking differences include spatially differentiated prices and availability of critical nutrients; dietary preferences related to religion and ethnicity; nutrition education; and administration of public health and nutrition policy.


Book
Intergenerational Impact of Population Shocks on Children's Health : Evidence from the 1993-2001 Refugee Crisis in Tanzania
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper examines how parents' early childhood exposure to a refugee crisis impacts their children's health status. Based on Demographic and Health Survey data from Tanzania with the migration history of mothers and fathers, the analysis exploits geographical, time, and cohort variations using shock intensity and distance from refugee camps to instrument treatment. The findings show that children who were born to parents who were living closer to refugee camps during their early childhood have lower height for their age and are more likely to be stunted. The results are robust to alternative functional forms of the distance from camps, alternative specifications of the treatment and control groups, alternative cohorts of mothers, and several placebo tests.


Book
Incentivizing Quantity and Quality of Care : Evidence from an Impact Evaluation of Performance-Based Financing in the Health Sector in Tajikistan
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper presents the results of an impact evaluation of a performance-based financing pilot in rural areas of two regions of Tajikistan. Primary care facilities were given financial incentives conditional on general quality and the quantity provided of selected services related to reproductive, maternal and child health, and hypertension-related services. The study relies on a difference-in-difference design and large-scale household and facility-based surveys conducted before the launch of the pilot in 2015 and after three years of implementation. The performance-based financing pilot had positive impacts on quality of care. Significant impacts are measured on facility infrastructure, infection prevention and control standards, availability of equipment and medical supplies, provider competency, provider satisfaction, and even some elements of the content of care, measured through direct observations of provider-patient interactions. While the communities in the performance-based financing districts reported higher satisfaction with the local primary care facilities, and despite the improvements in quality, the findings suggest moderate effects on utilization: among the incentivized utilization indicators, only timely postnatal care and blood pressure measurements for adults were significantly impacted.


Book
Adaptive Safety Nets for Rural Africa : Drought-Sensitive Targeting with Sparse Data
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper combines remote-sensed data and individual child-, mother-, and household-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (Malawi, Tanzania, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to design a prototype drought-contingent targeting framework that may be used in scarce-data contexts. To accomplish this, the paper: (i) develops simple and easy-to-communicate measures of drought shocks; (ii) shows that droughts have a large impact on child stunting in these five countries-comparable, in size, to the effects of mother's illiteracy and a fall to a lower wealth quintile; and (iii) shows that, in this context, decision trees and logistic regressions predict stunting as accurately (out-of-sample) as machine learning methods that are not interpretable. Taken together, the analysis lends support to the idea that a data-driven approach may contribute to the design of policies that mitigate the impact of climate change on the world's most vulnerable populations.


Book
Food Prices, Access to Markets and Child Undernutrition in Ethiopia
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper looks at how changing food prices affect child undernutrition in Ethiopia. It derives height for age (stunting) and weight for height (wasting) as indicators of child undernutrition from the two most recent years of the Livings Standards Measurement Survey and utilizes market prices for key cereals, teff, wheat, and maize at the zone level across all regions of the country. Using a panel data fixed effects model, the analysis finds that, contrary to previous studies, rising crop prices are positively associated with improved child stunting rates for children between ages 6 months and 5 years, while the results for wasting are not conclusive. These results suggest that across the board policy interventions that seek to suppress cereal price increases may have adverse effects on poverty reduction in the long term by undermining potentially positive impacts on child nutrition.


Book
Human Capital Development in Ghana
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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To achieve inclusive economic growth, Ghana must continue to build its human capital and ensure children are healthy, developmentally on track, and acquiring skills to thrive in a fast-changing world. This report identifies critical challenges Ghana faces in pursuing further human capital development and inclusive growth: Ghana's progress against child stunting (low height for age) has been significant, however, disparities across regions and between children in rich and poor households are substantial; cognitive development among Ghanaian children under 5 compares favorably to its peers. However, there exist large disparities across regions and income groups; even though Ghana's enrollment rates at primary and junior secondary school are relatively high compared with its peers, Ghanaian children's test scores are extremely low compared with not only other Lower-Middle Income Countries, but also other Sub-Saharan African countries; and Ghana's enrollment rates at senior secondary school and higher education remain low compared with peer countries of similar income levels.


Book
Lao PDR Economic Monitor, January 2019 : Macroeconomic Stability Amidst Uncertainty.
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Although decelerating from 6.9 percent the previous year, economic growth in 2018 is estimated to remain robust at 6.5 percent. The slowdown in growth in 2018 has been partly due to a combination of the following domestic factors : (i) the severe floods that hit the country during July - September 2018, which adversely affected agricultural production and damaged infrastructure in several provinces; (ii) the weak performance of the mining sector despite higher commodity prices; and (iii) continued fiscal consolidation, which contributed to slower credit growth. These downside factors offset the gains from the industry sector driven by the expansion of construction activities and electricity exports, coupled with robust growth in wholesale and retail trade. There is evidence of increasing job creation between 2010 and 2017. According to the 2017 Labor Force Survey, wage jobs are estimated to have gradually increased since 2010. This has resulted in 28 percent of households situated mostly in urban areas reporting an increase in income. As a result, ownership of consumption goods among the more affluent households increased faster than in poorer, mainly rural, households. Therefore, while poverty is still expected to decline modestly, inequality is likely to have increased. The government intends to remain on the path of fiscal consolidation, with the deficit estimated to decrease to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2018 from 5.3 percent in 2017, owing to some improvement in revenue collection and expenditure restraint. Improved revenue performance has been primarily driven by higher excise revenues due to increasing oil imports coupled with a higher price of oil. Other drivers include an increase in income taxes, dividend earnings, and other non-tax revenues. Strengthened revenue administration, such as the use of electronic tax payment platforms, has also supported revenue mobilization for certain tax types. Public outlays have been rationalized through tighter control of the public wage bill and downward adjustment of non-wage current spending. These measures offset higher interest payments and the increase in capital spending financed by external loans. Fiscal consolidation is estimated to have slowed the accumulation of public debt in 2018, though not enough to reverse the rising debt-GDP ratio, which is estimated to increase from 60.1 to 60.6 percent of GDP between 2017 and 2018.


Book
Sri Lanka Human Capital Development : Realizing the Promise and Potential of Human Capital.
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Human capital is a central determinant of economic well-being and social advancement in the modern world economy. The concept of human capital covers the knowledge, skills, nutrition, and health that people accumulate over their lives, enabling them to realize their potential as productive members of society. This Sri Lanka human capital report has several objectives. First, the report serves as a vehicle to explain the Human Capital Project (HCP) and Human Capital Index (HCI) to an audience of national and provincial policy makers and technocrats, and academics and researchers. Second, the report analyzes the main achievements and challenges in human capital development in the context of the World Bank's HCP, with a special focus on the variables covered in the HCI. Third, the report applies the HCI to an analysis of regional variations in human capital in Sri Lanka. Fourth, the report presents policy and program options for Sri Lanka to combat the main challenges identified in the analysis of the HCI variables. Fifth, some strategic options broader than the HCI but within the scope of the HCP are discussed.


Book
Malawi Economic Monitor, December 2019 : Strengthening Human Capital Through Nutrition.
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Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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With Malawi's economic growth recovering and single digit inflation, the Government has a keyopportunity to rein in fiscal deficits and reduce domestic debt. If it can better control domestic debt levels, the Government could increasingly move towards creating the conditions for the privatesector to increase investment, which can drive growth and job creation. To support this, the Government needs to develop a track record of achieving sustainable fiscal deficits in order to contain and reverse the escalating domestic debt burden, to contain interest rates and avoidcrowding out private sector investment, and to increase public investment. Malawi's economy is projected to grow by 4.4 percent in 2019, up from 3.5 percent in 2018. Agricultural activity rebounded in 2019 due to favorable weather conditions, which offset the negative effects from Tropical Cyclone Idai in parts of the southern region of the country. Crop production was generally strong, particularly in the case of maize, with production increasing by 25.7 percent. This supported overall economic growth, despite a decline in tobacco production. However, the ongoing political impasse, with widescale demonstrations that have continued since May 2019, has constrained business activity and increased uncertainty, weighing on investment. The Government missed the revised fiscal deficit target in FY2018/19. The fiscal deficit increased to 6.5 percent of GDP, higher than the revised target of 5.8 percent. The impact of election-related expenses,increased interest payments and costs associated with the disaster response pushed recurrentexpenditure beyond targeted levels by 1 percent of GDP. This was partially offset by under-execution of development expenditure, which was not enough to keep the fiscal deficit to 5.8 percent of GDP. Poor revenue performance, which was lower by 0.5 percent of GDP, compounded the problem.

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